The Sacramento Kings (2-3) face elimination tonight on the road against the Golden State Warriors (3-2). Neither team is missing any rotation players, so both will be able to throw their best punch. Can Sacramento force a Game 7 and eventually win their first playoff series since 2004?
Check out below for Kings vs. Warriors predictions, odds, trends, and starting lineups.
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction
Prediction: Over 236 Total Points
The average pace in this series is 104.4, which would have easily led the NBA. Sacramento and Golden State are racking up possessions and subsequently inflating their scoring totals. Therefore, while 235 may seem astronomical, both teams don’t require superb efficiency to score at least 237 points.
Three of the five games so far have hit over 236; however, all five did based on the expected score (per ShotQuality). In other words, if every player shot their expected percentage on every shot, then all games would have broken 236 points. What’s driving this discrepancy? Poor three-point shooting on both sides.
The Kings and Warriors have combined to shoot 59/174 (33.9%) on open 3PA and 27/99 (27.2%) on wide open 3PA. Those are absolutely pitiful numbers, especially for two teams that field excellent shooters and ranked in the top ten of 3PT%. It’s unlikely these percentages hold, and a return to even average three-point shooting would significantly boost scoring production on both sides.
In addition, the porous defenses haven’t shown the ability to consistently get a stop. Golden State is struggling to handle Fox’s speed on the perimeter as he’s driving past Curry, Thompson, and Poole with ease. Sabonis’ dribble handoffs are producing quality looks for teammates, while Malik Monk is exploiting mismatches. On the other side, Curry is producing an excellent 1.1 points per possession as the pick and roll ball handler, and the Warriors are killing the Kings on cuts.
Overall, I expect increased three-point efficiency here, and both offenses are too strong for the opposing defenses. Look for the over to hit.
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds
The Warriors are a sizable seven-point favorites here with an ugly -295 moneyline. For Sacramento’s +260 moneyline to be a profitable play, they must win this game at least 28% of the time. The over under sits at a massive 235 points, which is reasonable given the pace and offenses involved.
Sacramento is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 road games, while Golden State is 40-17-1 ATS in their last 58 home games. Both teams excel, but one of them has to break.
- Kings are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 road games
- Kings are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss
- Warriors are 40-17-1 ATS in their last 58 home games
- Kings are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings at Golden State
Which teams will win the game-determining matchups?
Kings Offensive Rebounding
Offensive rebounds usually lead to layups, free throws, or open threes, so they massively boost offensive production. The Kings are averaging 13.2 offensive rebounds per game behind Domantas Sabonis’ work on the glass, and that’s not going to change here in Game 6. If Sacramento can convert their second chance attempts, then the over has a great chance of hitting.
De’Aaron Fox Health
Fox fractured an index finger in his shooting hand, and it definitely affected him in Game 5 – he scored 24 points on an ugly 36 FG% and 30 3PT%. Fox is still figuring out how to shoot with the splint; if he can return to his normal shooting percentages, then the Kings offense can rack up points. Otherwise, they will need others to shoot above average in order to compensate.
Sacramento Kings Starting Lineups
Golden State Warriors Starting Lineups
Sacramento Kings Injuries: Matthew Dellavedova (O)
Golden State Warriors Injuries: Andre Iguodala (O), Ryan Rollins (O)