23) NFL Week 5

By Braxton Reynolds | Oct 07, 2023, 3:02pm

Contents

The New Orleans Saints battle the New England Patriots this Sunday (10/8/23). Get Saints vs. Patriots odds, predictions, and picks; our best bet is a same game parlay of under 45.5 total points and Patriots +10.5 points.

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Prediction

Derek Carr played through a shoulder sprain last week, and the results were not pretty. The Saints posted nine points because he constantly underthrew open receivers and missed tight windows. His arm strength is clearly compromised, which utterly halts offensive production. Carr’s inability to trust his arm in addition to him having one of the highest pressure to sack ratios across the NFL per PFF spells trouble.

New Orleans will find it difficult to run the ball too due to New England’s strong run defense. Their corners and safeties are excellent at collapsing and making open field tackles, while the defensive line can anchor themselves. As a result, the Patriots are allowing 3.8 yards per rush and rank fifth in PFF’s run defense grade.

Now, Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzales’ injuries certainly diminish New England’s defense, but they remain in decent shape because of Derek Carr’s weakened state. Look for the Saints to score around 14 to 17 points here at New England.

On the other hand, this Patriots offense is completely lifeless. They rank 28th in expected points added per play and possess one of the worst receiver rooms in football. Mac Jones’ accuracy and poise have seemingly regressed since his rookie season, although it’s difficult to fully fault him given the horrific environment. They face a solid Saints defense that ranks 10th in opponent expected points added per play.

Overall, this matchup should be a low-scoring affair between two injury-riddled teams. The Patriots as a whole own more potential here given Carr’s injury, so it’s difficult to envision New Orleans winning by eleven or more points.

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Prediction & Best Bet: SGP of under 45.5 total points and Patriots +10.5 (-173 FD)

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

Sportsbooks apparently disagree, as both the Saints and Patriots can be found as underdogs. The Patriots and Saints must win about 52 percent of the time for their respective moneylines to have a positive expected value. The 39.5 over under is one of the lowest totals of Week Five matchups.

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Key Injuries

A few notable injuries include Saints quarterback Derek Carr, Saints running back Jamaal Williams, Patriots EDGE Matthew Judon, and Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzales.

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Key Matchups

Which team can win these key matchups?

Saints Pass Rush vs. Patriots Offensive Line

New England ranks 28th in PFF pass blocking grade, and Mac Jones has faced the eighth most dropbacks under pressure. Therefore, New Orleans can generate pressure to disrupt Jones’ time to throw, which starts with Carl Granderson and Cam Jordan. The two have produced a combined 23 quarterback hurries and both own a pass rush win percentage over ten percent per PFF. Neither marks can be classified as elite, but they are getting solid pressure. Look for Granderson and Jordan to harass Mac Jones all game given New England’s porous offensive line.

Saints Running Backs vs. Patriots Running Backs

With both aerial attacks expected to struggle, which running backs can alleviate some of the burden? Alvin Kamara appeared dynamic in his first game back from suspension, and rookie Kendre Miller has flashed upside. Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson is a talented back that’s currently struggling with efficiency, while it’s clear that Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t reside in his prime anymore. The group that moves the chains will likely cause their team to cover.

New Orleans Saints Depth Chart

QB: Derek Carr
RB1: Alvin Kamara
RB2: Kendre Miller
LWR: Michael Thomas
RWR: Rashid Shaheed
SWR: Chris Olave
TE1: Juwan Johnson

New England Patriots Depth Chart

QB: Mac Jones
RB1: Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2: Ezekiel Elliott
LWR: Kendrick Bourne
RWR: Devante Parker
SWR: JuJu Smith-Schuster
TE1: Hunter Henry

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Braxton Reynolds

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.