New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (12/21/23)

The New Orleans Saints battle the Los Angeles Rams in Thursday Night Football (12/21/23). Get Saints vs. Rams First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Saints vs. Rams game?

Puka Nacua First Touchdown (+900 BMGM) & Cooper Kupp First Touchdown (+900 BMGM)

Matthew Stafford has quietly been dominant this season. Of the 32 quarterbacks with 200 dropbacks, he ranks fourth in big time throw rate, first in turnover worthy play rate, fourth in pressure to sack ratio, and eighth in yards per attempt (via PFF). His superb play only enhances Los Angeles’ excellent pass-catchers. 

After a mid-season dry spell, Cooper Kupp is back to his old ways. He owns 226 yards and two touchdowns over his past two games, as well as 16 receptions. Puka Nacua, on the other hand, ranks ninth across the NFL in receiving yards per game. The rookie has only found the end zone four times this year, but it’s not due to a lack of volume. Nacua is tied for the 16th most targets inside the ten-yard-line, so he is due for a few scores. 

Los Angeles faces a stout New Orleans defense that has allowed 16 passing touchdowns and 9 rushing touchdowns. Both marks rank in the top ten, so opponents are struggling to score against them. However, they have given up nearly double the amount of touchdowns through the air, and Los Angeles’ passing offense can carve up anyone when they find their groove. Therefore, taking Nacua and Kupp is wise here. 

For the bets to have a positive expected value, Nacua needs to score the first touchdown about 10 percent of the time, while Kupp holds the same status. 

Alvin Kamara First Saints Touchdown (+260 FD)

Kamara leads the Saints in touchdowns and yards from scrimmage despite missing three games. New Orleans loves to feature him in both the run and passing games, which greatly increases his avenues to score. Kamara should thrive against a Rams defense that ranks 24th in PFF’s tackling grade because of his shiftiness. 

Los Angeles has held running backs to only six touchdowns all season; however, Kamara is a unique case here. Look for the veteran to get plenty of opportunities on New Orleans’ first scoring drive. 

He needs to hit this bet about 28 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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