San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs (6/16/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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The San Diego Padres rolled over the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night by a final score of 19-5. Now, the Cubs must feel deflated considering they have to face San Diego Ace Joe Musgrove.
In an amazing turn of events, the Padres are tied for the lead in the NL West. Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn’t even played a game yet.
The Cubs are reeling. But do they have any chance in this game?
Read on for the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Wednesday matchup.
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Odds
I actually thought the Padres would be laying closer to -200 here. Matt Swarmer is making just his fourth MLB start ever, and he has done so with a 5.24 xERA.
Moreover, you generally don’t see double-digit totals unless you’re at Coors. But the wind is projected to be blowing directly out to the center field at 13mph. Everyone loves betting the over at Wrigley with winds like that.
But, is the road favorite and the over really the smart play?
San Diego Padres Starting Lineup
LF J. Profar S
2B J. Cronenworth L
3B M. Machado R
DH L. Voit R
1B E. Hosmer L
SS H. Kim R
RF N. Mazara L
C A. Nola R
CF T. Grisham L
San Diego Padres vs Matt Swarmer
Swarmer really heated up in Triple-A this year, posting a 2.08 ERA over 39 relatively flawless innings. Given the Cubs are starved for throwing arms, they called up Swarmer immediately.
He’s struggled, but he’s also given up nine home runs in just 17 big league innings. That 34.6% HR/FB rate is crazy unsustainable, and his numbers should go down with time.
However, his BABIP of .122 and his 100% strand rate should only go up. Projections have his ERA finishing around 5.00 this season, which sounds right for a rookie who isn’t very highly rated.
The Padres aren’t very special offensively, boasting a bottom-10 wRC+ on the season and over the last month. Manny Machado is a stud, and he is the current favorite for NL MVP and leads all hitters in fWAR (3.6). But outside of that, they’re seriously deficient offensively at catcher, shortstop (Ha-Seong Kim is no Tatis), and in the outfield.
The good news is the Padres are baseball’s best defensive team, leading MLB in Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved. They provide plenty of support for one of the best pitching staff in the league and San Diego’s Ace.
Chicago Cubs Starting Lineup
CF C. Morel R
C W. Contreras R
LF I. Happ S
1B F. Schwindel R
3B P. Wisdom R
DH R. Ortega L
SS N. Hoerner R
RF J. Heyward L
2B J. Villar S
Chicago Cubs vs Joe Musgrove
The Padres starters are currently top-10 in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. The rotation is the most consistent part of the staff, and it’s led the Padres to one of MLB’s best records.
The best pitcher on that staff has been Musgrove, who is lighting the world on fire with his 1.50 ERA.
But those numbers are backed up with a 2.60 xERA and a 3.15 FIP. Given the defense backing him up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see little regression from Musgrove. He’s one of just nine MLB pitchers to have recorded at least 2.0 fWAR so far this season.
While he shouldn’t struggle with this Cubs lineup, especially with Seiya Suzuki out, Musgrove shouldn’t sleepwalk into this one. The Cubs have put together a league-average offense all year.
It’s mostly thanks to Willson Contreras. Contreras leads all MLB catchers in fWAR so far at 2.4, having already smacked 12 home runs while slugging .546. He’s the best offensive catcher in baseball, and he has kept the Cubbies somewhat interesting despite the rest of the roster’s incompetence.
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Pick & Prediction
My picks: Over 10 (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I can’t help but play the wind at Wrigley. Balls are going to be carrying deep into the Chicago night with the wind blowing out that strong.
Plus, the Padres could really take advantage of Swarmer given his monstrous home run issue.
Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense is slightly underrated. They have a .741 OPS and a 107 wRC+ during June, and six of the top-10 Cubs hitters have an OPS+ above 110.
It’ll be hard to get runs on Musgrove, but he’s not going to have a 1.50 ERA forever. A couple of hard-hit fly balls with Thursday’s wind, and his ERA might shoot up.
Plus, we’ll cash this over, which I can’t help but bet.
