San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers (6/2/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

Both the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers are playing to their potential so far this season. Both may be even exceeding expectations.

But the two are doing it in different ways.

Manny Machado leads a Padres offense that has been raking. Machado is the early leader for NL MVP, and he’s dragging a lineup that is still missing Fernando Tatis Jr.

Meanwhile, the Brewers’ starting pitching staff is electric. This rotation is just as good as it was last year, and the 32-19 Brewers have built a three-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central.

But between two teams that operate so differently, who has the edge in this three-game series?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for Game 1 of this inter-divisional series.

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds

This is a pretty efficient line.

With the Brewers having home-field advantage, the opening line of MIL -120 basically means Vegas considers these two teams even in terms of true talent.

The opening total of 8 is MLB average, although it’s slightly juiced to the under.

Keep a close eye on these odds as they develop. At the time of this writing, I have yet to see any sharp movement on either the side or the total.

San Diego Padres Starting Lineup

LF J. Profar S
3B M. Machado R
1B E. Hosmer L
DH L. Voit R
2B J. Cronenworth L
RF W.Myers R
SS H. Kim R
C A. Nola R
CF T. Grisham L

San Diego Padres vs Adrian Houser

Coming into the season, I expected some negative regression from Houser. His expected statistics were a full run higher than their actual statistics, but the front end of the rotation would mostly render that moot.

Well, Hauser’s ERA is up (3.69), but his FIP is down (3.72). His xERA is also up (4.56) but his xFIP is also down (4.04).

It seems he’s getting hard-hit more often, but his strikeouts are up while his walks and home runs are down.

In the end, there’s nothing more you can expect out of Houser. He’ll post an ERA in the mid-3.00s while striking out few and forcing ground balls. He’s actually a perfect fourth or fifth option, and there are very few of those options as good as Houser.

All Houser does is throw sinkers, almost half the time. He throws it about 94mph and it has some movement, but the pitch is seeing some regression after he posted a -23 Run Value last season (just -1 through 9 starts this season).

San Diego hasn’t really killed fastballs this season, and the lineup has fallen apart in recent weeks. The Padres posted just an 84 wRC+ over the last 30 days, the third-worst in the league.

The Padres still finished the month of May 16-11, because the starting rotation was fourth in ERA during May.

Let’s look at today’s starter for the Friars.

Milwaukee Brewers Starting Lineup

DH A. McCutchen R
SS L. Urias R
LF C. Yelich L
1B R. Tellez L
RF T. Taylor R
3B M. Brosseau R
CF L. Cain R
2B K. Wong L
C V. Caratini S

Milwaukee Brewers vs Sean Manaea

I’ve actually been pretty happy with Sean Manaea’s performance since being dealt from Oakland. His ERA is up over 4.00, but he’s due for plenty of positive regression, as his xERA and xFIP are both 3.58.

It’s mostly because Manaea is striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings. His walks are up slightly, but Manaea can cook guys with the best of them.

He sets up everything with his sinker and then uses a changeup and slider to get guys to whiff. The latter two pitches have Whiff rates over 30%.

However, when guys do get the bat on the ball, they’ve been crushing it. Manaea’s 90.8mph avg. exit velocity allowed ranks in just the 17th percentile of pitchers this season.

The Brewer lineup doesn’t do anything special. They’re middle of the pack in plate discipline stats, batted ball stats, and wRC+ (102). But that level of offense is huge for the Brewers, who don’t need to score a lot with their rotation and back of the bullpen.

Hunter Renfroe and Rowdy Tellez have combined for 19 home runs this season, and the Brewers’ five bench players all have OPS+’s above 100. That’s a deep enough lineup to win close-fought games.

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick & Prediction

My picks: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 8.5 (-120 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

I just see no advantage for the Padres in this matchup.

The lineup has been flailing over the last month. Manaea is good, but he’s not significantly better than Houser. And the bullpen advantage is firm with Milwaukee.

Not to mention Milwaukee is the home team, where they’re 14-6 this season.

The Brewers have won three of the last five meetings between these two. But what’s more interesting is that the under has hit in all five of those games.

Considering the two limping lineups and the potential for positive regression from both starters, I’ll happily take a second shot on the under as well.