San Diego State Vs. New Mexico Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/18/22)

We got a double header of college football games for Friday night’s slate, and they couldn’t be scripted any more different from each other. While South Florida and Tulsa are expected to be in a track meet resulting in points in a flash, San Diego State and New Mexico are going to be in a defensive slugfest.

SDSU Vs. New Mexico Odds

Fresh off an upset victory over San Jose St, SDSU comes into this one as a -14.5 favorite over the lowly New Mexico Lobos. This comes as little surprise as New Mexico is power rated as one of the worst teams in football and are currently 0-6 in conference play.

As for the total, it shot down right away from the opener as expected. Opening at 44.5, the total has steamed down all the way to 39.5 as of writing in what is expected to be a defensive outing against two anemic offenses.

Away Team Vs. Home Team Prediction & Pick

The Pick: New Mexico +14.5

Sometimes the best wager you can make is a “hold your nose and pray to the high heavens” type of bet, and that is exactly what I am doing by taking New Mexico on the points. With projections having them at +11, New Mexico has plenty of value for me to take at the key number of +14 or higher.

Taking them as a double-digit underdog also correlates well with the total as this is expected to be a very low scoring affair. Both defenses have enormous advantages over each other’s opposing offenses with early outs written all over it.

Generating early outs will be more important than ever for New Mexico’s ability to cover this spread as their Def Finishing Drives rate is brutally bad as their defense folds when opposing offenses get past the 40-yard line.

Should New Mexico be able to pull off a sustained drive, or graciously generate Havoc to put them in friendly field position, then just one score may be enough for us to get this ticket cashed at the window.

Away Team Vs. Home Team Key Matchups

Will New Mexico be able to pad their spread with a score against SDSU’s defense? Will SDSU quarterback Jalen Mayden be able to capitalize on UNM’s porous red zone defense?

The worst offense in the nation vs San Diego State’s defense

In a sense, New Mexico should have little to no success against San Diego State’s defense. The Aztecs are above average in the nation in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Finishing Drives and Explosiveness. New Mexico is near dead last in all of the key metrics.

New Mexico has failed to find any production under center with backup Justin Holaday underwhelming in his limited performances. While SDSU is known for a stout defense, they are susceptible through the air. Should Holaday be able to exploit that then New Mexico will be in a comfortable position to cover the spread.

If New Mexico wants to find success on the offensive end, then they will need to create offense with their defense. They have a clear advantage in Havoc on the defensive end and flipping the field position will be key as this offense will need every yard they can get.

Jalen Mayden vs UNM’s secondary

Last week’s result was eye popping for the Aztecs as they comfortably upset the San Jose Spartans by putting up over 40 points on the board. Quarterback Jalen Mayden played a terrific game, throwing for 268 yards, three touchdowns and one interception while adding 61 yards on the ground.

His versatility will need to be on display once again as New Mexico’s defense will be a step up in production. While New Mexico possesses a good defense in comparison to SDSU’s offense, Mayden will be able to find success on the ground as the second level of UNM’s defense has struggled to contain production on the ground.

Should SDSU sustain a drive past the 40, then they can practically guarantee points will be put on the board as New Mexico has shown the inability to limit opposing offense in the back end with a red zone efficiency rating of 124th in the nation.

Verdict

Take New Mexico at +14 or higher in what will be a thrilling defensive slugfest that will be so ugly you just can’t help but watch every second of it.