San Diego State Vs. Ohio State Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/21/22)

While March deservingly gets all the glam and glory for the best postseason in sports, November nips at its heels with being the second-best month in sports. NFL, College football, NFL, NBA, NHL, and now Feast Week all going on at the same time for our betting pleasure. OSU and SDSU caps off the start of the Maui Invitational in what will be an intriguing stylistic matchup.

San Diego State Vs. Ohio State Odds

San Diego State opened as a short favorite at -2.5 and have quickly seen their number shoot up to -5. Backed behind an impressive start to the schedule behind the elite production of their defense, this unit is more than capable of limiting Ohio State’s offensive success that has steam rolled their lesser competition to a 3-0 record.

As for the total, this movement has been a bit of a head scratcher. Opening at 137.5, this number steamed heavily towards the over with it now sitting at 144.5. I struggle to see how offenses will be efficient at a consistent scoring pace, but sharps think otherwise.

San Diego State Vs. Ohio State Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Wait on the under

While it’s never settling to go against sharp line movement, that is exactly what I’m planning on doing with this total. After grabbing the Aztecs at -3 late last night, that number has moved too far for me to comfortably say you can still take it with confidence. Instead, I will be waiting to see how high this number can climb before going in on the under.

This is the point of the season where teams start beefing up the level of competition they have played, and Ohio State exemplifies that with their 361st AdjEM Strength of Schedule per Kenpom. Not exactly a glamouring measuring stick of success, a big reason why I’m hesitant on their ability to crack the Aztecs defense.

San Diego State on the other hand has had a much more grueling schedule to start their season, going 3-0 to start the season with games against BYU and Stanford and equaling a AdjEM of 90th. 

They have advantages in my two favorite categories for early season matchups. Defense and returning production. While Ohio State fields a near brand new identity, the Aztecs return a bulk of their production while maintaining their defense at an elite level that ranks 8th in AdjD per Kenpom.

(Tallysight pick tile here)

San Diego State Vs. Ohio State Key Matchups

Who will step up in scoring for the Buckeyes to help crack the Aztecs defense? Do the Aztecs have enough offense to keep up? 

Secondary scoring vs Aztecs perimeter defense

When it comes to cracking an elite defense, you need to provide multiple scoring outlets to really stretch out the defense. In doing so this creates more cracks to the defense as they make shifts to respect where the scoring is coming from and can allow more cuts to the basket from different angles.

Can Ohio State provide enough scoring outlets for this to happen? While nine players play meaningful minutes, only three of them are double digit scorers with forward Brice Sensabaugh leading the way at 17.0 points per game. He is coupled with fellow forwards Zed Key and Justice Sueing in scoring production with the duo combining for 25.6 ppg. 

If Ohio State wants to generate the upset, they will need to find scoring production from their back court or else SDSU can sit back and clamp down on their limited scoring. Sean McNeil and Roddy Gayle Jr’s outside shooting will be more vital than ever in stretching out this defense.

Aztecs scoring production vs Ohio State’s defense

While San Diego State is known for their elite defense at this point of the season, they also bring in an offense that nearly rivals Ohio States with an 30th ranked AdjO per Kenpom.

They lean on the duo of forward Jaedon LeDee and guard Darrion Trammell who combine for 31 points per game. They are the only players on the roster who play meaningful minutes while scoring in double digits.

While this may be fine for lesser competition with weak offenses that are unable to score consistently against the defense, it will hamper their success against better scoring units as they may not be able to keep scoring pace.

Verdict

With SDSU having an elite defense that Ohio State should have limited success against and an underwhelming scoring offense, I will take the under as we near tip off should the total continue to rise in the market.