The San Francisco 49ers will travel out East for a fascinating cross-conference matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday (11/12/23) at 1 p.m. EST. Get 49ers vs. Jaguars odds, picks and predictions below as our best bet is Jaguars +3.
49ers vs. Jaguars Prediction
Seemingly out of nowhere, after a picture-perfect start to the season, the San Francisco 49ers are on a three-game losing streak. A close loss in a messy game against the Clevelanfd Browns looked like a fluke. A loss in Minnesota started to raise eyebrows. And for some, it’s full-on panic mode after a blowout at home at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals.
It’s not entirely inexplicable. The injury bug hit the Niners skill positions, as well as veteran offensive tackle Trent Williams. It’s not a coincidence that quarterback Brock Purdy threw nine touchdowns and no interceptions in those initial five wins, while the ratio since the losing streak began is three and five, respectively. As the offensive situation around him has become noticeably less perfect, more of the playmaking burden has fallen on him, and he has not passed the test.
Questions around Purdy will continue to swirl past this week, but some increased health would be an enormous immediate boost for San Francisco. Deebo Samuel could be re-entering the mix this week. Arguably the biggest loss has been Williams, who might still need some more time before he’s back. Still, the Niners will take all the help they can get against a Jaguars team that has played excellent football of late, forming a trajectory that essentially mirrors San Francisco’s to this point. After starting the season 1-2, Jacksonville has won five contests in a row, and rank an impressive sixth in the league in DVOA to go with their 6-2 record.
A shockingly-stout run defense has been at the heart of the Jaguars’ success, a unit whose progress will be tested in their matchup with San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey, the league’s best running back. He’s slumped just a bit as he’s dealt with an injury of his own, but he could be in full force after the Niners’ bye week. It will be fascinating to see what kind of progress he’s able to make against a run defense that ranks fourth in the league in DVOA, third in adjusted line yards and tops in success rate.
This is a really interesting clash of styles. It’s tough to understand why the home team, playing excellent football, is an underdog of a full field goal against a slumping road squad. Both units grade similarly by many major metrics. I’d much prefer to be getting a half-point hook up to +3.5, so be on the lookout for that in the market. But +3 is still very nice value for the Jaguars in Jacksonville. With the total placed very appropriately for a battle between well-rounded squads, that spread is going to be our best bet in this one.
49ers vs. Jaguars Prediction: Jaguars +3
49ers vs. Jaguars Best Betting Odds
The Jaguars are +3 underdogs at home, or +135 on the moneyline compared to -160 for San Francisco. For a total of 45, both the over and under are available at -110 odds.
49ers vs. Jaguars Key Injuries
Key offensive lineman Trent Williams is still expected to be out for the 49ers, while versatile pass catcher Deebo Samuel could make his return. For the Jaguars, wideout Zay Jones is expected to miss the game as he has been limited in practice.
49ers vs. Jaguars Key Matchups
To slow down the Niners, you have to slow down CMC, and stopping the Jaguars means dealing with their wide array of pass catchers. Let’s take a look at how each side might approach their respective task.
49ers Rushing Offense vs. Jaguars Run Defense
The Niners offensive line has been surprisingly good this season, given some of the questions asked of them over the offseason, ranking seventh in the league in adjusted line yards. Much of their track record was accumulated with Williams on the field. Things have been on a downward trajectory since his injury. Jaylon Moore has been decent in relief, but he can only do so much to stand in for a blocker of Williams’ caliber.
It’s going to be especially tough for Moore to deal with edge rusher Josh Allen, who is having another really nice season for Jacksonville. Linebacker Devin Lloyd has also been a really solid contributor for the Jaguars, as he’s taken a major step up in his second pro season. Even against a diminished offensive line, it’s never an easy task to slow down McCaffrey. But this Jacksonville defense should be able to do enough to put the game into Purdy’s hands, a definite positive from their perspective.
Jaguars Passing Offense vs. 49ers Air Defense
Trevor Lawrence is playing some really nice footballafter some early struggles. He’s currently ranked sixth in PFF’s passing grade, even if his traditional metrics haven’t quite caught up yet. He’s playing behind an offensive line that has been essentially average by both adjusted sack rate and PFF pass block grade. That’s more than he’s been able to say in the past. He also has a very solid receiving room to work with, headlined by the wideout duo of Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley, both of whom are averaging over 12 yards per catch.
They’ll face a San Francisco defense that’s very stout up front, especially since reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa has been joined by fellow Ohio State Buckeye Chase Young after a deadline trade. The secondary is a bit of an issue, as the depth beyond Charvarius Ward at cornerback and Talanoa Hufanga at safety are both less than desirable; Lawrence might have a big day if the pass rush isn’t able to get to him.