San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 NFL Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (2/11/24)
Super Bowl 58, pitting the San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs, kicks off Sunday (02/11/24) at 6:30 p.m. EST in Las Vegas. Get San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs predictions and best bets below. Our best bet is on the 49ers first half moneyline as they dominate time of possession with their ground game to help keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Best Bet
After coming out flat against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers managed to mount a comeback and secure the victory. It’s safe to say they cannot come out with the same underwhelming performance in the Super Bowl, taking on a far more well-rounded team in the Chiefs. Luckily for the Niners, they have the advantages and scheme to dominate from the opening kick.
When on offense, their advantages reside on the ground as they get the benefit of running against a weak Kansas City front seven. While the Chiefs secondary has played as a phenomenal coverage unit, their front seven has yet to do their part with stopping the run. The Chiefs come into the Super Bowl ranked 27th in Def Rush DVOA, 16th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 28th in Def Rush EPA.
That bodes well for a 49ers offense that has run as one of the best rushing units in the league, ranking second in Rush DVOA, first in Rush EPA, first in Rush Success Rate and second in Adjusted Line Yards. This is in large part due to star running back Christian McCaffrey, as well as forcing the Chiefs second level of their defense to anchor in coverage by having to defend the 49ers stud group of pass catchers. By being able to keep drives alive off the ground game alone, the 49ers can drain time off the clock while keeping Mahomes off the field.
When Mahomes is on the field, expect the Chiefs to struggle early on as they try and figure out how to attack a 49ers secondary that ranks top-10 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA and Success Rate. Much like the Chiefs, the 49ers also struggle to stop the run yet steadily improve as they back up into the red zone. Expect stalled Chiefs drives resulting in punts and field goals, giving the Niners the chance to pad a lead. By taking the first half moneyline, this also negates Kyle Shanahan’s conservative coaching style, as well as minimizing the swing for adjustments.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers 1H Moneyline
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
Oddsmakers initially believed this game was a near 50/50 in terms of who would win, slightly leaning toward the 49ers favor by opening them as a -1.5 favorite. Bettors are also in agreement, taking the Niners up to as high as -2.5 in some shops. The 49ers have played as one of the best teams in the NFL, now being in a good position to win it all.
As for the total, oddsmakers believed points would be scored at a moderate pace. They opened the number at 47.5. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the number, keeping the total the same as of this writing. With both offenses having an advantage with their ground game, the under is worth a wager as there should be prolonged clock-draining drives.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Key Injuries
Both teams come into this contest fairly healthy with only notable names George Kittle for the 49ers and Joe Thuney for the Chiefs being listed as questionable on the injury reports.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Key Matchups
Can Brock Purdy find success through the air against the Chiefs secondary?
Brock Purdy vs. Chiefs Coverage
As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs secondary has been elite all season as they come into the Super Bowl ranked top-5 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA and Success Rate. While that may seem daunting, the 49ers field plenty of capable playmakers who can bust any opposing coverage.
Over two minutes of Brock Purdy shredding opposing defenses this season 🍿 pic.twitter.com/KUAodh4BLp
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) February 5, 2024
George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey are arguably the best group of skill players in the NFL and will look to stretch out the Chiefs elite coverage. That opens up higher quality passing lanes for Purdy to exploit, keeping drives alive and minimizing the chance for a turnover worthy play. Expect Purdy to continue to be hyper efficient, hitting his receivers in stride while simultaneously setting up their ground game for more success.