San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 NFL Same Game Parlay Pick (2/11/24)

There are endless betting options for Super Bowl 58, ranging from typical player props to bizarre prop bets only a Super Bowl can produce. Despite the fanfare, a football game will be played – and you might be able to find some value in this same-game parlay.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks

The 49ers are holding steady as slight 2-point favorites on Sunday, despite plenty of belief in Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The over/under is 47.5 points. This Super Bowl 58 parlay is crafted using FanDuel, so different sportsbooks will offer different odds.

Leg 1: Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown (+145)

Patrick Mahomes spent much of the season figuring out which receivers he could trust, and he’s narrowed down his options to Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and occasionally Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Expect to see plenty of Rice against a 49ers pass defense that has been vulnerable early in games in these playoffs. Rice has been targeted 9+ times in seven of the Chiefs’ last nine games.

While he doesn’t have a touchdown over his last two games, Rice hasn’t gone three consecutive games without a touchdown since the opening four weeks of the season – he’s scored in seven of 15 games since. Look for Mahomes to try and exploit the 49ers’ pass defense in this one, making Rice a very realistic touchdown scorer.

Leg 2: Patrick Mahomes Under 260.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Yes, Mahomes can dice up the 49ers’ pass defense. There might be limitations as to how high his yardage will go. Why? Steve Wilks’ defense has let up early scores in recent weeks, forcing the 49ers into a hole. If that’s the case again, Andy Reid notoriously leans conservative with leads (as seen in the AFC title game) and won’t let Mahomes take too many risks.

Wilks’ defense has also done a terrific job of adjusting to passing games in the second half recently, which combined with the Chiefs’ second half offensive struggles this season make it unlikely Kansas City will be able to produce a total onslaught of offense.

Mahomes has come in over 260 yards only once in his last five games: a 262-yard effort against Miami. Even in last year’s Super Bowl with two explosive offenses, Mahomes only threw for 182 yards. With the running game (including Mahomes’ scrambling ability) still a major part of what the Chiefs do, lean against gaudy passing numbers for Mahomes.

Leg 3: Christian McCaffrey Over 22.5 First Quarter Rushing Yards (-110)

Kyle Shanahan is sensible enough to see what another team did wrong and correct it. He undoubtedly saw the Ravens opt against running the ball against the Chiefs a week after the Bills had great success vs. a vulnerable Kansas City run defense, and he knows he has to run the ball early and often to crack Steve Spagnuolo’s otherwise tough unit. Few coaches are better than Shanahan at scripting opening drives, and those drives tend to include a heavy dose of McCaffrey.

Four years after Shanahan resisted taking the training wheels off of Jimmy Garoppolo on this stage, it makes sense to let Brock Purdy settle in and set the tone early with the best running back in football. McCaffrey should have a great path to clearing 22.5 rushing yards in the opening quarter.

Same Game Parlay Card For San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Rashee Rice Anytime TD Scorer (+145)
  • Patrick Mahomes Under 260.5 Passing Yards (-110)
  • Christian McCaffrey Over 22.5 1st Quarter Rushing Yards (-110)

TNF Same Game Parlay Odds: +793 (varies by sportsbook)

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Dan is a lifelong sports fan and graduate of Boston University. He’s covered several sports on Instagram since he was 12 and now writes about everything from betting trends to breaking news for Lineups.

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