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After a long and grueling season, we have reached the final game. San Francisco and Kansas City will be heading to Miami to play in Super Bowl LIV. Towards the end of the 49ers victory over Green Bay, odds were released. The Chiefs came in as one point favorites, and an over/under came in at 52, which is now up to 53.5 and even 54 on a few sportsbooks. We are looking at two extremely even teams, with Kansas City ranking second in team DVOA and San Francisco ranking 5th. The 49ers had one of the biggest turnarounds after ranking 30th in team DVOA last season. Both teams ranked top five in yards per play and points per game. The Chiefs have given up some early leads in both playoff games that they won, with Patrick Mahomes playing lights out. San Francisco took care of business on the defensive side, and ran the ball extremely well in their games against Minnesota and Green Bay. The 49ers have the Chiefs 29th ranked rush defense they can exploit, but will have their hands full on the defensive side playing one of the top offenses in the league. For odds line movement, and full matchup history, see the San Francisco 49ers Vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, February 2nd 2020
Time: 6:30 ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami FL
San Francisco 49ers: Tevin Coleman (Q)
Kansas City Chiefs: None
Kansas City Chiefs Analysis
Kansas City comes in with one of the top offenses in the league, averaging the third most points per game (29.8), and most of their production came through the air. This was a team that battled injuries, losing Damien Williams for more than half of the season, and then Patrick Mahomes for a few week. The offense averaged the second most yards per play (6.3). Defensively the Chiefs held teams to 20.1. points per game, and 5.4 yards per play. That was good for 10th and 13th in the league. They will have their hands full against a Kyle Shanahan led offense that averaged 30 points per game this season. Kansas City struggled against the run, although you wouldn’t have been able to tell last week against Derrick Henry. They ranked 29th in DVOA against the run and 6th against the pass. We did see San Francisco take advantage of a glaring weakness in the run game last week, but the Chiefs are a more talented defense.
The Chiefs were an excellent red zone scoring team this year, and the 49ers red zone defense was average at best. Moving the ball still shouldn’t be a problem for the Chiefs with the offense that they have. They scored on 59% of red zone trips, and San Francisco allowed scores 61% of the time in the red zone. Both teams have red zone weapons that are tough to cover.
Kansas City battled injuries in the backfield all year, and we saw nobody really dominate in production. Damien Williams has looked the best, and over the final few weeks of the season he finally got that workload back as well. Williams had over 700 all-purpose yards this season, and seven total touchdowns in limited games. An underrated aspect of Williams’ game is that he saw ten targets in the red zone, with seven completions and two touchdowns. LeSean McCoy still looked like he had a pep in his step, rushing for 4.6 yards per carry. He had 465 yards and 4 touchdowns on 101 attempts. Tyreek Hill missed the first four games of the season, and still put up a 58-860-7 line on 89 targets. Sammy Watkins had 90 targets this season, putting up a lackluster 52-673-3 line. Most of that was from his Week 1 outburst. Mecole Hardman is going to be a special player, and on just 41 targets, he had a 26-538-6 line. Travis Kelce continues to produce, putting up another stellar season with a 97-1229-5 line. He saw 25% of the targets, and 30% of the red zone targets.
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
San Fransisco 49ers Analysis
We have watched one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history, as San Francisco dominated on both sides of the ball. While health limited them a year prior, they enter the Super Bowl week fairly healthy and that is important. The 49ers ranked second in the league in points per game (30.1), and second in rushing yards (154.2). They also were strong at keeping opposing offenses off the field by controlling the clock. They averaged 31:50 minutes with their offense on the field. Defensively they allowed just 18.8 points per game, and held opposing offenses to just 104 rushing yards per game, and 174 passing yards per game. They also averaged just 4.7 yards per play. Most of these were good for top ten in the league, with rushing yards per game being 11th. The 49ers ranked 2nd in DVOA against the pass and 11th against the run. Both sides of the ball dominated all year, and looking at the NFC we should have no complaints with them reaching the Super Bowl.
We are looking at two teams that ran their offense to the extreme opposites. The Chiefs threw the ball 61% of the time, compared to the 49ers 48%. If the run game is working for San Francisco, why change it. That was the reason from Kyle Shanahan for why Jimmy Garoppolo threw the ball just eight times. The Chiefs ran the ball 38% of the time compared to the 49ers 51% run rate.
Both teams had their tight ends lead the receiving core. George Kittle was a beast in the red zone, who saw 19 targets, which was 26% of the target share in the red zone this season. Overall he led the team in targets (98), which was 22% of the target share. Kittle finished the year with an 85-1053-5 line. Deebo Samuel really emerged in his rookie year, with 71 targets, catching 70% of them. Samuel also had 14 rushing attempts this season, going for 159 yards and three touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders had a few big games in San Francisco, but has been quiet dating back to that Saints game. In San Francisco he saw 53 targets in ten games, going for 36-502-3. As far as the run game goes, we have seen each of their three backs be featured at times. Raheem Mostert has flashed big play upside in the second half and we saw that on display against Green Bay. Over the season he had 772 yards and eight touchdowns with 5.6 yards per carry. Matt Breida had 623 yards on 123 attempts (5.1 YPC) and just one touchdown. Tevin Coleman was the least effective, and struggled at times this season. He had a big game against the Vikings and then Carolina earlier this season that highlight his season. He finished the regular season with 544 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart
Betting Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
The opening line was very similar to last year’s Super Bowl between the Rams and Patriots. Los Angeles were -1 favorites, but that changed to the Patriots being one point favorites closer to the Super Bowl. We could see some change again where the line could move towards the Chiefs or just a flat out pick’em. This year we are already seeing movement on the over/under, which was set at 51, but is now up to 53-54 points as the public gravitated towards the over early. The public tends to bet the over in these big games, and that is the case here. We can simply look to the 49ers averaging 30.1 points per game this season and the Chiefs 29.8. Yet some might overlook that these defenses held opposing teams to 20 points and below throughout the season. Neither team had a big edge in the over/under department, with San Francisco going 9-8-1 and Kansas City going 10-8. The public will also be banking on Jimmy Garoppolo throwing more and playing well. The Chiefs poor run defense also held in check the Titans. With the total trending up, I believe it is now more at a number where you can take the under.
If the public’s love grows towards the Chiefs, we will see the line move a point or two, where it could get to -3. At the moment, the Chiefs are a strong bet at -1, as they have a stronger offense and more versatile offense to challenge this 49ers defense. They have an edge in the quarterback position, and by a wide margin. Both pass defenses rank inside the top eight in DVOA, and I can’t find the 49ers having big enough success in that department with Garoppolo under center. Now the 49ers can attack Kansas City through the ground game, but it’ll be a different game script than how they won against Green Bay. This should be a close game, but the Chiefs coming in as one point favorites is something I am buying.
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Daily Fantasy: George Kittle
This slate is a bit different from the prior ones that were written up, given it is just one game. With the showdown slates being in play, the format is changed. FanDuel has the four FLEX spots and MVP spot, where DraftKings has five FLEX spots and their Captain spot. Both the MVP and Captain spot will earn 1.5x fantasy points. The other difference is that DraftKings has kickers and defenses in their player pool, where FanDuel does not include defenses. Looking at this past weekend, Raheem Mostert going for 29-220-4 on the ground was a massive fantasy point outing. Tevin Coleman left the game with a shoulder injury, and hasn’t been ruled out for the Super Bowl, but will be questionable. The ground game is going to be an important factor in this one, as Kansas City ranked 29th against the run this season. It will be another defense where San Francisco can attack them. The pass defense for Kansas City was excellent, and it showed in targeting them in fantasy. They allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, but struggled against tight ends. For one they saw a ton of volume due to the strong cornerbacks and secondary they had. Tight ends had the second most receptions against Kansas City, which is going to give a bump to George Kittle. Out of the receiving options on the 49ers side, it is easy to target Kittle. Of course we will also see more passing attempts from the 49ers side. Kittle comes in at $12,600 on DraftKings and $11,500. Both are cheaper than Travis Kelce. Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders are both fairly cheap, going under $9,000 on FanDuel. Sanders is $7,800 on DraftKings, which is below both backup quarterbacks. Samuel is a bit more expensive at $11,400. Both are in play this week, especially to round out a lineup or two.
No surprise to see Patrick Mahomes as the top priced player on both sites. He has eight touchdowns and over 600 yards through the air in two playoff games. He also has 53 rushing yards in each playoff game with a rushing touchdown. San Francisco allowed the 9th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterback in a division with fantasy friendly QBs. This is a great secondary, but Mahomes is always someone to build around. Wide receivers had mild success at times in fantasy, although for the most part this is a tough spot. Tyreek Hill is a breakout threat this week, and always one play away from paying off his price tag. I like his speed against this secondary that don’t have anyone to match him in that department. Sammy Watkins had a big game against Houston, which was his first big game since Week 1. Watkins price tag on both sites is $10,500. That potential is there, especially when those random high target games come around. Unlike the Divisional Round game, Travis Kelce was quiet in the win over the Titans. Kelce was one of the more consistent names in football over the course of the season, averaging 17 fantasy points per game. He finished the year with 110 receptions, 1,393 yards, and nine touchdowns. I prefer Kittle over Kelce this week for a cheaper price, but a lineup with both is also in play. As far as the running game goes, Damien Williams is the only one I would look at. His price tag is a bit high at $14,700 on DraftKings, and $14,000 on FanDuel. The 49ers had a few games where they struggled against the run, but overall were a team that allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs and ranked 11th against the run. Williams should be a contrarian piece this week.