San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Prize Picks Entry (2/11/24): Best Bets & Predictions
Get San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prize Picks legs, odds, & best bets for their (2/11/24) matchup.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prize Picks Legs
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs kicks off this Sunday at 6:30pm EST in Las Vegas, NV as the host site for the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are currently a +2 underdog and +108 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47.5. Expect a running back duel between Isiah Pacheco and Christian McCaffrey while Rashee Rice and Brock Purdy trend in different directions, all giving value as legs in a Prize Picks entry in this San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup.
For those who may be new to DFS, Prize Picks is a DFS Pick’em app where you essentially create a parlay at set odds. You can either make a “Power Play” entry which means you must go four for four in order to 10x your wager, or a “Flex Play” that pays out at 5x but allows you to also cash at 1.25x if only three legs win. Listed below are some entries that I recommend using for your Prize Picks entries, using them to make a four-leg entry or for additional pieces for a five and six legger for more potential profits.
Leg 1: Isiah Pacheco Less Receiving Yards: 17.5
Isiah Pacheco may get a lot of flak for his running style on social media, but it will be on full display once again as he gets the opportunity to shred a weak run stopping 49ers defense. Stopping the run has been an issue for San Francisco all season long as they come into the Super Bowl ranked 15th in Def Rush DVOA, 24th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 26th in Def Rush EPA.
Their struggles to stop the run are in large part of their scheme, anchoring their linebackers across the middle to sell out in coverage. This allows power runner Pacheco to churn out extra yards up the middle, keeping the Chiefs in good positions to move the sticks. Expect an uptick in rush attempts and a decrease in targets which plays towards his under for receiving yards.
Leg 2: Christian McCaffrey More Rushing Yards: 90.5
Much like Pacheco, Christian McCaffrey is also coming into the contest with a massive advantage on the ground as the Kansas City Chiefs have also struggled to stop the run. They come into the contest with similar poor run stopping metrics, ranking 27th in Def Rush DVOA, 28th in Def Rush EPA, and 16th in Def Rush Success Rate.
#SuperBowlLVIII | #FTTB This Niners offense is tough to stop when Christian McCaffrey gets going on the ground. If the Chiefs can’t stop staple concepts like this toss concept broken down by @gregcosell, McCaffrey will run riot in Vegas.@DariusJButler | @PlaybooKFoley pic.twitter.com/cf95376Xnb
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) February 10, 2024
Better yet for McCaffrey’s chances of routinely finding success, the Chiefs front four has also struggled to plug the gaps in the trenches as they rank 25th in Def Adjusted Line Yards. By being able to find success on the ground, that helps the 49ers dominate time of possession which simultaneously keeps Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field. Expect a run heavy approach, putting McCaffrey in a good position to cash this leg.
Leg 3: Rashee Rice More Receiving Yards: 67.5
The Chiefs may have a massive advantage on the ground, but that doesn’t totally negate their ability to find success through the air. It may seem daunting as the 49ers secondary boasts coverage metrics of fourth in Def Pass DVOA, sixth in Def Pass EPA, and seventh in Def Pass Success Rate, yet Pacheco’s running ability may be able to break it apart.
That bodes well for Rashee Rice as he gets the benefit of beating the coverage outside the numbers. The 49ers elite coverage mainly resides across the middle, playing more towards Kelce than outside receivers. That means more singular coverage for Rice to exploit, putting him in a position to clear this mark as Mahomes go-to target.
Leg 4: Brock Purdy Less Passing Yards: 248.5
This is more of a fade on the 49ers game script than it is to Brock Purdy himself as the added emphasis of the run will eat away at Purdy’s attempts through the air. Not only does establishing the run help dominate time of possession and keep Mahomes off the field, but it also helps limit turnover worthy plays through the air. That bodes well for the 49ers as the Chiefs secondary have excelled in coverage by ranking fifth in Def Pass DVOA, third in Def Pass EPA, and second in Def Pass Success Rate.
Prize Picks Power Play Entry For San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Isiah Pacheco Less Receiving Yards
- Christian McCaffrey More Rushing Yards
- Rashee Rice More Receiving Yards
- Brock Purdy Less Passing Yards
Four Leg Prize Picks Power Play Odds: 10x ($10 wins $100.00)
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