San Francisco 49ers Vs. Kansas City Chiefs Underdog Fantasy Super Bowl 58 Player Props & Picks (2/11/24)
For the second time in five seasons, the NFL has been distilled down to the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, as these two titans will clash in Super Bowl 58. There’s no shortage of star power on either side, so for those interested in betting player props, this game offers a great opportunity to dig into some great bets with the Underdog platform. Let’s dig into the matchup and get 49ers vs. Chiefs player prop picks for this (2/11/24) championship matchup, looking at odds provided by Underdog Fantasy.
San Francisco 49ers Vs. Kansas City Chiefs Underdog Player Prop Picks
Few would dispute that these are the best two teams this NFL season, and they’re here for a reason; these rosters are well balanced, and the coaching staffs are two of the league’s best. The two squads share the weakness of stopping the run, so there’s definitely an opening for both potent offenses; let’s see how these trends could play out on an individual player level.
Christian McCaffrey Over 130.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Arguably nobody in the NFL today is better at their job than Christian McCaffrey. If you consider his job to simply be a running back, he crushed it as he led the league in rushing yardage for the first time in his career this season. If you think of him as a positionless, “do-it-all” offensive weapon, he’s excellent at that, as he led the league in scrimmage yardage and is one of PFF’s highest-graded receivers at any position.
McCaffrey has always had a penchant for showing up when he’s needed most, and he should thrive against a Chiefs defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the run and 26th in EPA. It might look like they were able to limit the Ravens’ prolific run game, but more accurately, the Ravens limited themselves, by only handing the ball off to running backs a total of six times all game.
It’s unlikely Kyle Shanahan takes a similar approach, as he seemingly trusts McCaffrey and the team’s offensive system far too much to abandon the run after one drive. Expect McCaffrey to keep his team ahead of the sticks by gouging the mediocre Chiefs run defense, and even contribute through the air if the game script changes.
This number may seem big, but it’s right in line with his season average, even in the postseason. On the biggest stage, with his usage potentially higher than ever, it’s far from a long shot.
Patrick Mahomes Over 290.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
Speaking of players who shine brightest in the biggest moments, Patrick Mahomes is already establishing himself as one of the all-time great playoff performers at the quarterback position.
Mahomes has now played 17 postseason games, a full season’s worth, and has tossed 39 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, with 4,802 yards through the air and 458 on the ground. That’s an MVP-caliber season, and the Super Bowl has been no exception, especially from a volume perspective.
The two-time MVP threw for 286 yards and ran for 29 four years ago against the Niners in Super Bowl 54, and even racked up 270 through the air and 33 on the ground in the ugly championship loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a year later.
Just last season, Mahomes snared his second Super Bowl MVP award with a more efficient performance, as volume was not really needed. This year, it should be. The Chiefs are not quite as talented as they’ve been in years past, and the offense more or less runs through Mahomes.
Last week — against the NFL’s best defense — he generated 256 yards of total offense despite a low-profile performance from Kansas City overall, providing us with a great opportunity to buy low on this number. He’s going to be needed more than ever against San Francisco, and against a defense just a notch or two worse than Baltimore’s, he should be able to really let it fly and rack up some serious yardage.
Travis Kelce Over 0.5 Rushing + Receiving Touchdowns
The “rushing” aspect is probably a bit superfluous — although Kelce does have two career touchdowns on the ground — but nevertheless, expect him to score in this one. The Niners have a surprisingly average red zone defense, and while Fred Warner is a pretty good Kelce cover, it’s not really possible to completely limit the Cincinnati alum in the end zone.
This is especially true in the postseason, as he only trails Jerry Rice in terms of career playoff touchdowns. Most recently, he’s scored three in the past two games, as he’s really dialed things up as the games have become more and more important.
As good as Warner is, the Niners are missing the very physical star safety Talanoa Hufanga, who could have done even more to limit Kelce. With Kansas City’s fledgling wideout group likely completely locked down by the San Francisco corners, expect Mahomes to turn to his most reliable end zone target when the time comes to finish off drives.
Jake Moody Over 2.5 Extra Points Made
More often than not, especially given Moody’s impeccable reliability on point after tries, this prop acts as a proxy for total touchdowns scored. Despite their dynamic short-yardage weapons, the Niners go for two less than anyone else in the league- in fact, they haven’t done it once this year.
Simply put, if you don’t think the Niners can find the end zone three times, it’s in your best interest to just put the house on the Chiefs. If you do think they will do that, this is the prop for you.
The 49ers have the best red zone efficiency rate in the entire league. This isn’t shocking given the brilliance of Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, and the variety of athletic weapons in their offensive skill group, but scoring touchdowns on 68.5% of drives inside the 20 is a fantastic trend. Against a KC red zone defense that is good but not elite, expect them to feast on Super Bowl Sunday.
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