San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/30/22)

San Francisco 49ers Vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds

The Rams have a Nick Bosa-sized 49ers problem, and it stands in between them and a Super Bowl berth. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are 6-0 in their last six games against Sean McVay’s Rams and are 7-3 overall since the two coaches were hired. However, I believe the Rams are set up to get that monkey off their back this week and make their way to the Super Bowl. The win over the Buccaneers was incredibly impressive, even if they almost blew a 24-point lead in the second half, and the Rams are rolling with one of the most talented rosters in football. However, the Niners keep finding ways to win games, and this should be a battle between these two divisional rivals. Let’s break down some betting angles in this rubber match between the 49ers and Rams.

Injury Report

San Francisco 49ers: OT Trent Williams (ankle) Q, WR Deebo Samuel (knee) Q, CB Ambry Thomas (knee) Q

Los Angeles Rams: OT Andrew Whitworth (knee) Q, OT Joe Noteboom (pectoral) Q, S Taylor Rapp (concussion) Q

San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds

If you’ve been reading my work this season, you know I’m not the biggest fan of Jimmy Garoppolo. This year in the playoffs, he’s completed just over 60% of his passes and thrown two interceptions to no touchdowns. However, I can’t deny that he keeps winning games in the postseason, and he has inspiring charisma that leads his team through the most challenging moments. It helps when he plays behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL led by Trent Williams, arguably the best offensive player in football. Williams dominates on the left side while Alex Mack and Laken Tomlinson clear the path in the middle. Tom Compton has also been excellent in replacing Mike McGlinchey, who was lost to a season-ending injury.

The Niners also have some of the best skill position talent in the NFL, led by Deebo Samuel, who set the record with eight rushing touchdowns, the most by a wide receiver in a season. Samuel had ten carries in the game against the Packers and came up with some clutch plays down the stretch. However, he suffered an ankle injury late in the game, and it remains to be seen if he will be fully healthy this week. If he’s not at 100%, we will likely see Brandon Aiyuk pick up more of a workload in the passing game. Aiyuk’s sophomore season hasn’t entirely gone according to plan, but he’s turned things on down the stretch and had six catches for 107 yards in Week 18 against the Rams. George Kittle has recently taken on more of a blocking role, but he’s an elite receiver, while Elijah Mitchell has been excellent in his rookie season.

Defensively, the 49ers’ ability to hold Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to ten points last week was a seemingly impossible task, regardless of the weather conditions, which were not ideal for offensive production. Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead had two sacks in that playoff game, and the secondary held up surprisingly well. However, with ascending rookie cornerback Ambry Thomas now injured, the Niners have another obstacle to overcome in their pass defense. Matthew Stafford has been excellent in the playoffs, and if the Rams’ offensive line can keep him upright, the Niners could have a tough time on the back end. Of course, that’s a big if, as the Rams had five sacks against the Niners in Week 18. First-year defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans have done a great job, and this defense is not messing around.

Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds

It’s easy to see that the Rams almost blew a 24-point lead in the second half and blame it on Matthew Stafford, but he was largely excellent in that game. Stafford completed 28 of 38 passes (73.6%) for 366 yards and two touchdowns to no interceptions. He also came up with huge completions with seconds remaining to get the Rams into range to kick the game-winning field goal. None of the team’s four turnovers was Stafford’s fault – they were all fumbles by other players – and the turnover issues that plagued him at the end of the regular season have not become an issue in the postseason. However, the injury to Andrew Whitworth remains a concern against the Niners’ elite pass-rush, especially now that Joe Noteboom is on the injury report. Noteboom replaced Whitworth as the starter against the Bucs and played quite well.

Cooper Kupp is going to win the Offensive Player of the Year award after becoming the first player since 2005 and just the fourth all-time to win the triple crown with the league lead in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns – he finished with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. Stafford only attempted 17 passes in the first playoff game against the Cardinals, but Kupp was insanely productive with nine catches for 183 yards and a touchdown in a more pass-heavy game script. Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee are all capable of making plays in the receiving game. Still, the most significant directive for the Niners will always be to know where Kupp is, especially after he had over 100 yards in both games against them this year.

The Rams’ defense has also been excellent in the postseason, and their 58.8% pass-rush win rate against the Bucs was by far the best in the league during the divisional round. Von Miller has started to look like vintage Miller again, and his strip-sack of Tom Brady was one of the biggest plays made last week. Of course, Aaron Donald is still the leader of the defense as the best defensive talent in the NFL, and with Leonard Floyd also playing at a high level, the Rams can create constant issues for even the best offensive lines. The loss of Jordan Fuller was expected to be an issue, but Nick Scott has filled in very well, and he had two pass defenses last week. This week, Taylor Rapp popped up on the injury report, but the Rams have enough depth in the secondary to overcome that loss if he’s unable to play.

San Francisco 49ers Vs. Los Angeles Rams Picks & Prediction

The Rams’ roster is coming together at the right time, and Matthew Stafford is arguably playing the best football of his career in the biggest games he’s ever played. With Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd, the Rams can put constant pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo, no matter how good the San Francisco offensive line is. Garoppolo is quietly still dealing with thumb and shoulder injuries, and those could become an issue at some point in this game.

The Rams have found a good formula on offense, and while Cam Akers only averaged 2.0 YPC last week, his presence alongside Sony Michel allows the Rams to play more of a balanced approach. Cooper Kupp will overwhelm the 49ers’ secondary yet again, and if they sell out to stop him, OBJ and Van Jefferson are capable of making big plays. The 49ers will pressure Stafford, but the Rams’ offensive line played well last week, even without Whitworth.

With the Rams surging and the 49ers clawing their way to a win last week, I don’t believe the Niners’ recent successes against the Rams are enough of a reason to pick them to win this game. As long as the Rams’ offensive line can keep Stafford upright and the offense can play efficient football and avoid turnovers, they should be able to win this game. We know Jimmy Garoppolo will be good for at least one interception at some point, and the Rams will capitalize when it happens.

When the Niners beat the Rams this year, they were the team scratching and clawing for a playoff spot. This time, the Rams will show the same level of desperation, and they’ll be hungry for a home win over their hated rival to get to the Super Bowl. I believe the spread and over/under are spot-on, but I lean towards the Rams and the over on points. However, my best bet is the Rams’ ML, but you can probably buy a point on the spread and go from there.

My Predictions: Rams win 26-21, Rams cover, over 46 points

Best Bet: Rams ML (can buy a point to play Rams -2.5)

Teaser Options: Rams +3.5 and over 39 points or Rams +3.5 and Chiefs ML