San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Player Props & Picks (10/23/23)
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Get 49ers vs. Vikings player prop picks & odds for the (10/23/23) matchup on Monday Night Football. Shop the best NFL player prop odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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49ers vs. Vikings Player Prop Picks
The Minnesota Vikings (2-4) host the San Francisco 49ers (5-1) on Monday Night Football (10/23/23) in week 7 of the 2023 NFL season. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick some of our favorite 49ers vs. Vikings player prop bets.
Alexander Mattison under 45.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
There are a few things working against Mattison in this game. The first is that the Vikings have simply struggled to run the ball this season. As a whole Minnesota is 30th in the league in rushing yards per game at 75, and Mattison is 22nd among running backs with a 3.9 yards per carry average.
The second thing is the anticipated game script. The 49ers are 7-point favorites and have jumped out to big leads in almost every game they’ve played this season. Even if both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel end up missing this game, the 49ers’ offense should still be able to put up plenty of points against an exceedingly average Vikings defense. That means the Vikings could be forced to abandon the run early in this game.
Mattison has only eclipsed 45.5 rushing yards twice this season, in weeks 3 and 4 against the Chargers and Rams. Both were close games that afforded the Vikings the opportunity to give Mattison a high volume of carries (20 and 17). But just last week, against the lowly Bears defense, Mattison managed just 44 yards despite getting 18 carries.
The 49ers’ defense can be exploited on the ground. They are just 22nd in rushing defense DVOA, 23rd in EPA, and 26th in success rate. They have allowed 3 running backs this season to gain at least 46 rushing yards (Kyren Williams, James Conner, and Jerome Ford), but only 1 of those backs (Ford) went over their rushing prop line.
Mattison might get more involved in this game through the air, but we don’t expect him to get many opportunities on the ground, nor to do much with the opportunities he does get.
Brandon Aiyuk 80+ alt receiving yards (+132 at FanDuel)
Brandon Aiyuk has quietly been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this season and a huge part of the 49ers’ offense. On an offense filled with stars like McCaffrey, Samuel and George Kittle, it’s Aiyuk who leads the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. He is 4th in the NFL in yards per reception (18.2), 7th in yards per target (12.3) and 11th in yards per game (90.8).
Aiyuk has been very consistent week over week. He has at least a 25% target share in every game this season and is coming off a season-high 41.7% target share last week against the Browns when McCaffrey and Samuel both left the game early with injuries. If either or both of those players ends up missing this game, it’s reasonable to expect Aiyuk might see double-digit targets again and north of a 30% target share.
This is also an excellent matchup for Aiyuk. The Vikings have allowed the 2nd most receptions and 6th most yards to opposing wide receivers so far this season. They are also allowing the 2nd-most yards after catch to wide receivers, which is one of Aiyuk’s specialties.
Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop line this week is 67.5, which is a number he’s surpassed in 3 of the 4 games he’s played this season (excluding the week 2 game in which he left early with an injury and finished with only 43 yards). His 90.8 yards per game includes that week 2 game and would jump to 101.5 in only the 4 games he finished.
Considering all that, a prop line of 67.5 receiving yards is way too low for Aiyuk this week. While that would be the safe play on an Aiyuk prop bet, we are confident enough in his outlook this week that we prefer to play an alt receiving yards bet of 80+ yards at +132 odds, especially if McCaffrey and/or Samuel end up missing this game.
Brock Purdy over 237.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Let’s pair that Brandon Aiyuk prop bet with some action on the guy throwing him the ball.
Brock Purdy had thrown for over 250 yards in 3 consecutive games before last week’s ugly game against the Browns. We can chalk that one up to the circumstances. Not only was he facing the best defense in the league, but it was also a torrential downpour and he lost 2 of his best weapons mid-game. None of those factors will be at play this week against the Vikings defense playing in the dome at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Purdy is the NFL’s 2nd-highest rated passer this year at 111.9 (behind Tua Tagovailoa). He is also leading all quarterbacks in EPA per play and is 2nd in EPA+CPOE (completion percentage over expected). The Vikings are allowing the 2nd highest completion percentage (75.2%) and the 3rd highest quarterback rating (103.3) through 6 weeks.
While McCaffrey or Samuel missing this game would hurt the 49ers’ offense overall, they still have more than enough weapons to be effective. McCaffrey’s absence also could mean that Purdy will be forced to throw the ball even more than he already does.
The biggest risk with this pick is that the 49ers could jump out to a big lead and take their foot off the gas, but if that happens there is still a good chance that Purdy could hit the over in the process of building up the lead. And in the unlikely event that the Vikings manage to keep the game close into the 2nd half, that would only increase the likelihood of Purdy passing for at least 238 yards.
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