San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings kicks off this Monday at 8:15pm EST in Minneapolis Minnesota as a home game for the Vikings. The 49ers are currently a -7 favorite and -295 on the moneyline while the total is set at 43. Expect a bounce back performance from the 49ers as Brock Purdy and Brandon Aiyuk lead the charge, giving value for a same game parlay in this San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings matchup.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Same Game Parlay Picks
It got about as ugly as it could get for the San Francisco 49ers in their last game out, losing to the Browns while witnessing Trent Williams, Christian McCaffery, and Deebo Samuel all going down with an injury. That left the 49ers void of offensive talent, struggling to crack the Browns elite defense. As for the Vikings, they are dealing with their own poor injury luck as they skated by with a win against the Bears without their very own Justin Jefferson.
Leg 1: San Francisco 49ers Moneyline
Even with Deebo Samuel confirmed out and Trent Williams listed as doubtful, the San Francisco 49ers should have no trouble making quick work of the Minnesota Vikings. Getting star running back Christian McCaffery is a massive plus for their offense, as well as retaining one of the best defenses in the league that is more than capable of getting the injury riddled Vikings unit off the field.
The loss of Justin Jefferson cannot be overstated, serving as one of the few skill players worth more than a point to the spread. This leaves them void of consistent talent, especially with TJ Hockenson having to find success against a 49ers linebacking unit that excels in coverage. Speaking of coverage, the 49ers defense currently ranks top-5 in Def Pass DVOA, Def Pass EPA, and Def Pass Success Rate.
Not having Trent Williams may create some struggles as this negates the 49ers elite pulling scheme type offense, but Brock Purdy should have no issue adjusting to a heavier dose of the pass. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league yet only rank 15th in Pressure, exposing the middle of the field for the hyper efficient Purdy to exploit.
Leg 2: Brock Purdy Over 27.5 Pass Attempts
With Trent Williams trending towards being out, expect a heavier dose of the pass in order for the 49ers to pull out the win. Williams plays a key role in their pulling scheme, motioning him to get to the outside and serve as a downfield blocker. Without him, the rush protection takes a massive hit and the counter to that would be quicker outs through the air.
These back to back plays. The first clip to Aiyuk was a penalty so it didn’t count but Brock Purdy says “oh yeah” and comes right back to Deebo for another huge gain. 👏 sone still refuse to say Brock is more than just a “system QB” 😂 #49ers #FTTB pic.twitter.com/fbH769Ajty
— 49er_Edits (@49er_edits) October 14, 2023
Especially if the Vikings continue to call a heavy dose of the blitz, crashing the interior and potentially disrupting the run. The interior of the line is a worrisome area for the Niners, grading out well below average in PFF metrics. Should they succumb to the pressure, running lanes will be smothered and Purdy will be forced to checkdowns and quick throws.
Leg 3: Brandon Aiyuk Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
With Deebo Samuel out and Christian McCaffery dealing with a tear in his leg, it’s Brandon Aiyuk’s game to dominate as the clear consistent target for Brock Purdy. He’s taken strides this season and can expect an uptick in targets and snap counts, now getting the chance to show he can shoulder the brunt of production for the 49ers offense.
The 49ers currently rank top-2 in Pass DVOA, Pass EPA, and Pass Success Rate, showing a massive advantage against the Vikings middling Def Pass metrics. While improved, the Vikings still rank a lowly 13th or worse in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Factor a stretched-out coverage against the Niners elite playmakers and Aiyuk should see plenty of open field after he makes the catch.
Leg 4: Alexander Mattison Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
The Alexander Mattison experiment is simply not working. Expected to blossom after serving as one of the best backups the past few years, Mattison has yet to find any sort of consistent success since taking the reins as a three down back. He currently averages 53.5 rushing yards per game, now having to find success against an elite Niners linebacking unit who excel at stuffing the run. Factor in the idea of them playing from behind and rush attempts may come at a premium.
Same Game Parlay Card For San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Purdy o27.5 Pass Attempts
Aiyuk o69.5 Receiving Yards
Mattison u48.5 Rushing Yards
Full SGP Odds: +650 ($10 wins $65.00)