San Francisco 49ers Vs. Washington Commanders NFL Player Props & Picks (12/31/23)

By Jacob Wayne | Dec 30, 2023, 12:21pm

Get San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders player prop picks & odds for the (12/31/23) matchup

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Picks

We find one of the biggest spreads of the week in this 49ers vs. Commanders matchup as the 49ers are currently priced as 13.5-point road favorites. San Francisco is in need of a big bounceback after a disappointing loss to the Ravens on Christmas while the Commanders are counting down the days until this wretched season comes to an end.

With all of those factors in mind, where does the player prop betting value lie? I’ll break down some of my favorite picks in this article. Use the player prop search tool above to find the best odds for whichever prop you select. Let’s get to work.

Deebo Samuel Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)

Deebo Samuel has been quiet lately, being held under 50 receiving yards in two straight games. However, he had averaged over 100 yards per game in his four games prior to that, and this matchup provides an excellent opportunity to bounce back. The Commanders have allowed 198.9 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the second-most in the NFL.

According to Fantasy Points Data, the Commanders rank fifth in two-high usage since Week 11, which opens up underneath opportunities for opposing wide receivers. Against two-high looks, Samuel has a 28.6% target share since Week 11, and he’s averaging 2.73 yards per route run against that type of coverage.

The Commanders are set to be without three starting defensive backs this week in Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste, and Percy Butler. Washington already ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA, so this already would have been a pristine matchup, but now cornerback Tariq Castro-Fields will likely be seeing his first snaps of the season with one of the toughest matchups imaginable.

Samuel ranks sixth in the NFL in yards after the catch, and he’s a threat to take any pass to the house. He might only need a couple of catches to hit the over on this prop this week, and there’s immense upside in one of the best matchups for wide receivers this season.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)

While I made Deebo Samuel an official player prop pick in this game, I can’t really talk you out of taking Brandon Aiyuk either. All of the same matchup principles apply to Aiyuk with the Commanders ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA and being without three starting defensive backs.

Aiyuk has been peppered with targets this season, averaging 12.9 per game. That would be the second-highest mark for a 1,000-yard receiver since the NFL started tracking targets in 1999 according to NFL analyst Mike Renner. Aiyuk’s 3.0 yards per route run rank second in the NFL this season per PFF.

The Commanders’ two-high heavy defense lends itself to success for Samuel over Aiyuk given their respective target share profiles, but Aiyuk should still be able to rip off some big plays against this skeleton crew secondary.

Christian McCaffrey Over 121.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)

I don’t really need to explain to you how dominant Christian McCaffrey has been this season, but this is yet another great matchup for the All World running back. CMC ranks fourth in the NFL in opportunity share, second in carries, and fourth in targets, so he should see plenty of volume once again this week.

The Commanders have struggled to finish tackles against ball carriers as they have allowed the third-most yards after contact per attempt. Last week, Breece Hall finished with 195 yards from scrimmage against this defense with the type of volume that we can expect CMC to see this week.

McCaffrey has averaged 128.8 yards from scrimmage this season, but he’s been even higher lately, going over this number in six of his last seven games. I normally don’t advocate for a bet on a player to go over a number this high, but it’s tough to argue against CMC having another massive game on Sunday.

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Jacob Wayne

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.