The Washington Commanders play host to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday (12/31/23) in an NFC battle between teams on opposite ends of the contention spectrum. In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game and a full matchup preview. In addition, find our 49ers vs. Commanders best bet which is the 49ers’ team total over 30.5 points.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Prediction
The 49ers suffered their worst loss of the season on Monday night in a 33-19 home defeat at the hands of the Ravens. They’ll be eager to get that bad taste out of their mouths this week. The Commanders are the perfect bounceback opponent as Washington’s defense ranks 31st in both DVOA and EPA. Therefore, my favorite betting approach to this game is the 49ers’ team total over 30.5.
The 49ers have been over 30.5 points in just six of 15 games, which is just a 40% hit rate, but if you extend it to over 29.5 points, they’ve been over in nine of 15 games, which is a 60% hit rate. Meanwhile, the Commanders have allowed eight of 15 opponents over this number, which is a 53% hit rate. Those numbers provide a solid basis to this bet.
However, the 49ers have yet to face a defense this bad while the Commanders have yet to face an offense this good. San Francisco has the most efficient offense in the NFL by DVOA and EPA, and with their cadre of elite skill position players, it’s tough to see where Washington finds stops in this game.
The Commanders have no ability to get pressure on Brock Purdy with a pass rush that ranks 29th in pressure rate, and their soft zone defense will provide opportunities for easy completions all afternoon. From there, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle will carve up the second level with yards after the catch. Christian McCaffrey should also feast against a defense that allowed 191 yards from scrimmage to Breece Hall last week.
While the spread is lofty at -13, all of the pieces are in place for the 49ers to run up the score against a hapless Commanders defense. The full game over represents solid value at 49.5 points, but rather than banking on Washington scoring with their quarterback situation up in the air, let’s just bet on the 49ers doing what they’ve done all season – scoring at will, this time against perhaps the worst defense in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Prediction: 49ers Over 30.5 Points
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Best Odds
The 49ers find themselves as 12.5-point road favorites in this game, and there was some movement off the key number of 13. With an over/under of 49.5 points, the implied score in this game is around 31-19 in favor of the 49ers. The total is in a bit of a dead zone as the closest key numbers are 47 and 51.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Key Injuries
Injuries are always important to monitor, especially this late in the NFL season. For the 49ers, I’d pay close attention to the injury statuses of Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams. All three were banged up against the Ravens and are listed as questionable, but I’d expect them to play. For Washington, the potential absences of cornerback Benjamin St-Juste and safety Percy Butler would further hurt a highly vulnerable defense.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Key Matchups
If you’re betting on the 49ers to score over 30.5 points in this game, you can bank on multiple elite skill position players to help that effort. However, the key matchup you should be cognizant of comes from a Commanders’ defense ill equipped to handle the superstar talent of Christian McCaffrey.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington Commanders’ Run Defense
McCaffrey is firmly in the MVP conversation at this point in the season, and his odds can be found as low as +360 at this time of writing. A running back hasn’t won the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012, but McCaffrey has a strong case. The 49ers superstar has registered nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns, and he’s the engine for what has been the most efficient offense in the NFL.
The Commanders are no match for McCaffrey’s dual threat capabilities as a runner and receiver, and he should be in for another huge game on Sunday. In each of their last two matchups, they have been torched by a star running back in Breece Hall (195 yards from scrimmage) and Kyren Williams (152 rushing yards). McCaffrey should be the next in line with a performance that will boost his MVP candidacy.