The Arizona Diamondbacks have been surprisingly difficult foes for the San Francisco Giants this season. The Snakes are now 5-3 against the Giants on the season with a solid run differential to back it up. Arizona’s lineup even managed five runs against the ever-dangerous Carlos Rodon last night.
Tonight, the Diamondbacks will get the similarly talented Logan Webb. But the Snakes will counter that with their ace, Zac Gallen. Gallen is not the best pitcher in the league, but he’s worthy of building a rotation around.
So, in this surprisingly competitive battle, who has the edge?
Read on for the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Monday’s matchup.
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Odds
The Giants should always be favored over the Diamondbacks. They are the better team. The Diamondbacks are ripping it down.
However, the odds being as close as they are is a testament to Gallen.
The Diamondbacks are 10-8 in Gallen starts this season. For a team that’s 10 games under .500, that’s a feat.
However, the Giants are 34-13 in Webb starts since the start of last season and he has a personal record of 9-3 this season.
This game is close, and we need to dive deeper for value.
San Francisco Giants Starting Lineup
CF A. Slater R
1B W. Flores R
LF D. Ruf R
3B E. Longoria R
DH Y. Mercedes R
RF M. Yastrzemski L
SS T. Estrada R
2B D. Villar R
C J. Bart R
San Francisco Giants vs Zac Gallen
Gallen is by far the best pitcher on the Arizona staff. He’s even a guy you want to build a rotation around.
Gallen had a down year in 2021 but bounced back well, posting a 3.31 ERA with only slightly worse peripherals. He’s a workhorse who’s given over 100 innings in just 18 starts, and he has forced a ground-ball rate close to 50% along the way.
The strikeout rate is a bit perplexing. He’s striking out 3% fewer batters than last season and that has led to two fewer strikeouts per nine innings. But his walk rate is way down as well, so maybe he’s just throwing more strikes.
It shouldn’t be hard to take care of this Giant lineup. The Giants have been treading water all season. Part of that is due to a horrific defense, but most of it is due to a lineup that can’t produce enough runs outside of Joc Pederson.
Arizona Diamondbacks Starting Lineup
LF J. Luplow R
RF D. Varsho L
DH K. Marte S
1B C. Walker R
2B B. Kennedy R
3B J. Rojas L
C C. Kelly R
CF A. Thomas L
SS G. Perdomo S
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Logan Webb
Webb spins gems as well as anyone in the game. He’s tossed at least eight innings in three starts this season and has gone six innings in his last three starts. He’s only allowed three runs in those prior 18 innings, as well.
His ERA is just as good as last season, although his xERA, FIP, and xFIP are slightly up. It’s likely because his strikeout rate is down behind a lowered Whiff rate. Those swing-and-miss numbers are closer to his career average, however.
But Logan is a slider-sinker-changeup pitcher, and his goal isn’t to miss bats. Instead, he tries to miss barrels, something he’s been rather effective at over the last two seasons.
The Diamondbacks barrel the ball at a league-average rate, but they do everything else at a below-league-average rate. It’s somewhat perplexing because there are five bats with an OPS+ above 100, and Ketel Marte has been ripping the ball.
The Diamondbacks have been hitting better recently. It’s part of the reason they have a +18 Run Differential this month.
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Prediction
My picks: Arizona Diamondbacks F5 ML (+104 at UniBet Sportsbook)
My goal in this game is to back the Diamondbacks at plus money. This is as close to a coin-flip of a game as you’ll get, and I want the value with the usual underdog.
The first five innings are where I can find the best value. I also get to avoid the ever-mercurial Diamondbacks bullpen, which is anchored by the ever-untrustworthy Mark Melancon.
The Giants’ lineup isn’t scary and the defense ranks second-to-last in Defensive Runs Saved this year. The Diamondbacks aren’t the best lineup to back, but they have posted a 115 wRC+ over the last two weeks, which is good for eighth in the league.
Backing the Diamondbacks to come out on top at home after five is my favorite value bet for this contest.