San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins, 5/29/19 7:10 PM ET Marlins Park, Miami, FL, TV: San Francisco (NBCS BA), Miami (FS-F)
After wrapping up a seven day road trip in Detroit and Washington D.C., the Marlins returned home for a brief three game stint against the San Francisco Giants. With both teams buried in last place in their respective divisions, the series seems to be more of an audition for potential trade deadline suitors.
The Giants (21-32) will ride with ace, Madison Bumgarner in the second game of the series as he attempts to improve on his 3-4 record and 4.10 ERA. Even struggling in April, Bumgarner has already recorded 7 quality starts this year. The same can’t be said for the Giants as they’re now 14.0 games behind the first place rival Dodgers and only 2.5 games ahead of the Marlins for the worst record in the National League.
Coming into the series 7-3 over their past ten games, the Marlins (18-34) seemed to hold a slight edge in what appears to be a low scoring series. On Wednesday night, they’ll send out Pablo Lopez who enters with a 3-5 record and 5.40 ERA. Lopez’s numbers have been particularly interesting as he enters with a 1.93 ERA in 4 home games and a 8.26 ERA in 6 road starts.
1. J. Panik, 2B (L)
2. M. Yastrzemski, LF (L)
3. B. Posey, C (R)
4. P. Sandoval, 3B (S)
5. B. Belt, 1B (L)
6. K. Pillar, RF (R)
7. B. Crawford, SS (L)
8. S. Duggar, CF (L)
9. M. Bumgarner, SP (R)
After launching a first pitch homer in his first at-bat, Joe Panik appears to have cemented in the leadoff spot of the Giants lineup. The same can’t be said for the rest of SF’s lineup that has struggled to score all season. Their road record of 11-14 looks almost like a victory in itself compared to their home record of 10-18. Nevertheless, the Giants have struggled in all aspects of hitting as they rank 28th in runs, hits, home runs and 29th in batting average with a meager .221. When your arguably top hitter is Brandon Belt who sports a .229/.337/.452 slash line with 22 runs, 7 home runs, and 18 RBIs, you’re in trouble.
Away from the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, the Giants, as a team, have found more success hitting. Pablo Sandoval has batted .341, Evan Longoria has hit .310, and Bumgarner, himself, has found success with a .273 average on the road. This season, the Giants have yet to find success against both righties and lefties, batting .221/.286/.377 and .223/.287/.344 against them respectively. Though the stats don’t infer much of a difference, the Giants will likely deploy a left-handed heavy hitting lineup as they go against the right-handed pitching Lopez.
After a blowout loss that saw San Francisco use four different pitchers and give up eleven runs, Manager Bruce Bochy will rely on Bumgarner to provide him with at least quality 6 innings to preserve the bullpen and a chance at a victory. Historically and this season, Bum has fared much better against lefties. Unfortunately, Miami’s lineup is comprised of mostly right-handed batters where Bumgarner has allowed an opponents’ batting average of .284 compared to the .170 mark against lefties. He will need to depend on keeping his walk rate, currently ranked in the top 9% in the MLB, low and prevent Miami from scoring to return to his career ERA of 3.08 and boost his trade value for the Giants.
1. A. Dean, LF (R)
2. G. Cooper, RF (R)
3. B. Anderson, 3B (R)
4. S. Castro, 2B (R)
5. H. Ramirez, CF (R)
6. M. Prado, 1B (R)
7. J. Alfaro, C (R)
8. M. Rojas, SS (R)
9. P. Lopez, SP (L)
After trading away their final established hitter in J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins are looking for their next emerging star. Unfortunately, Brian Anderson has yet to replicate last season’s success and is instead batting .234/.317/.359 compared to the .273/.357/.400 that earned him 4th place in Rookie of the Year voting. However, Miami has received great production from a resurgent Neil Walker and rookie Harold Ramirez in an offense that ranks last in nearly every offensive category.
Coming into the game, Bumgarner doesn’t have very much success or experience or success against the young Marlins squad. Brian Anderson has found the most success with a .667 batting average which includes a home run though in a small sample size. Following close behind, Starlin Castro has hit .424 in 33 at-bats, Neil Walker has hit .333 in 12 at-bats, and Martin Prado trails with .313 in 32 at-bats.
On the pitching side, this will be the first time Pablo Lopez has faced the Giants in his early career. Weirly, Lopez has found success and struggled in every other start within the last month. In his starts against Cleveland, Atlanta, and New York, he allowed no runs but in games between those against the Phillies, Mets, and Nationals, Lopez has yielded a combined 18 runs. If that trend continues, you can bet on Lopez going at least 6 innings and shutting down San Francisco’s offense tonight.
Giants vs Marlins Betting Odds
The line is currently set at Giants +156, Marlins -156.
The betting line favors the Marlins as last night further proved the Giants as a lackluster offense and the Marlins as a team that could score runs against bad pitchers. Yesterday, the Giants were favored by the slight margin of -108 compared to Miami’s line of +108. The over under of 7.5 was also the lowest among all games last night. With the 28th and 30th ranked run scoring offenses, I don’t anticipate much scoring happening in this game. Additionally, both teams lack a power threat and aren’t particularly skilled with getting on base. In comparison, the trio of National League MVP candidates Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, and Nolan Arenado have combined for 60 home runs while as a team, the Giants and Marlins enter play with 49 and 39, respectively. With their ace on the mound against a seemingly weak lineup, it’s tough the bet against the Giants. However, if last night’s game was any indication, you can never count out Miami.
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