San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins (6/4/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

The San Francisco Giants are a big-market team. But, you likely don’t know much about the Miami Marlins, who have been among the worst teams in baseball for half a decade now.

While the Marlins are still just 21-28, they arguably have the best young collection of pitchers in MLB. Edward Cabrera threw six scoreless in Denver on Wednesday, followed by Sandy Alcantara throwing seven scoreless against the Giants on Thursday.

The Marlins will now get Pablo Lopez on the mound for Friday, who has a 1.83 ERA on the season.

The Giants will have Logan Webb on the mound, so we’re in for one of the best pitching matchups of the season.

Which team has the edge?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Saturday matchup.

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Odds

The Marlins got as high as -150 with Alcantara on the mound on Thursday. But that was against Alex Cobb, who has been nothing special this season.

With Webb on the mound, the Giants are rightful favorites. The Giants are 30-7 when Webb takes the mound over the last two seasons, which includes 8-2 this year.

But, it still might be worth looking at the Marlins as home underdogs. Webb isn’t having the most spectacular year.

The total is sitting at an unfathomably low 6.5, although it’s slightly juiced to the over. For what it’s worth, totals under 7 this season are 16-15 to the over, with both sides losing money.

San Francisco Giants Starting Lineup

DH T. La Stella L
1B W. Flores R
CF M. Yastrzemski L
3B E. Longoria R
LF J, Pederson L
SS B. Crawford L
2B T. Estrada R
RF L. Gonzalez L
C J. Bart R

San Francisco Giants vs Pablo Lopez

Alcantara has quickly reasserted himself as the staff’s best starter. However, Lopez is right on his heels.

He still has an ERA south of 1.85, striking out close to 10 batters per nine innings while walking less than 2.30. Although Lopez has allowed just 11 earned runs in his last 35 ⅓ innings, the Marlins are still 1-5 in those starts, including four straight losses.

The Marlins aces have a similar approach. All three have solid four-seam fastballs which they pair with deadly changeups. Alcantara’s changeup sits around 94mph, while Cabrera just recorded the fastest changeup ever at 96mph.

Lopez doesn’t have the same velocity, but it’s just as effective. He ranks in the 83rd percentile of pitchers in whiff rate and the 87th percentile in chase rate, with the majority of those coming on his changeup. Opponents are hitting a combined .149 with a .204 wOBA against Lopez’s change this year.

The Giants are average changeup hitters, but they’ve posted the second-highest weighted fastball runs created this season. The Giants are slightly weak against the cutter, which Lopez can mix in, so maybe we’ll get more of those Friday.

The Giants posted the sixth-highest wRC+ in May (117), finishing second in walk rate during that time (10.2%). And the resurgence of Mike Yasztremski has been much appreciated in the Bay, as the youngster is leading the team with a 145 OPS+.

Yaz has always been solid against fastballs and off-speed stuff, but he got rocked by breaking pitches during his sophomore slump. But he’s steadily improved his average exit velocity against breaking stuff over the past two seasons, and his xwOBA on breaking pitches is up to .347 from .245 a season ago.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

Miami Marlins Starting Lineup

2B J. Chisholm L
1B J. Aguilar R
LF J. Soler R
RF A. Garcia R
DH G. Cooper R
CF J. Sanchez L
SS M.Rojas R
C J. Stallings R
3B J. Berti R

Miami Marlins vs Logan Webb

Webb has been just as good as last year. He’s been wildly consistent, pitching less than five innings just once and giving up more than three runs in a start just once.

He gives the Giants a chance to win. And given how good the Giants are, the Giants generally win Webb day.

He was so thoroughly dominant in the playoffs last season, that this year feels like a slight regression year. The main reason for that regression is his strikeout totals, which have dropped precipitously since last year, mainly on his slider.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

After striking out over 9.5 batters per nine innings in 2021, that number is down below 7.5 this season. Webb’s velocity and spin rate have remained relatively stable, so we can probably expect these numbers to rebound a bit.

Or, at least I hope. Webb needs to get his Whiff rate back up to last season’s levels, as his chase rate is still legit.

The Marlins lineup sucks. But thanks to their 27-run doubleheader performance against the Rockies on Thursday, they’ve posted a 111 wRC+ over the last 30 days. That’s 10th in MLB.

It’s hard not to love Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has boosted his OPS+ to a team-high 142. He ranks above the 90th percentile in barrel rate, sprint speed, and outs above average, showing just how much of an all-around player he is.

If he can keep his xSLG up above .550 while playing elite defense up the middle, we’re talking about a potential MVP candidate in the coming years.

Sadly, the Marlins are 9-20 after starting the season 12-8. If only Jazz and the pitchers had some help…

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Pick & Prediction

My picks: Miami Marlins ML (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

As home underdogs with Lopez on the mound, I can’t help but project value on the Marlins here.

Webb has seen plenty of regression. He isn’t immortal. And this Marlins lineup is seeing the ball well, even if their stats are skewed from Thursday. Eight of the top-12 Marlins hitters have an OPS+ above 100.

The Giants are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and have lost two straight. They’re also only 14-12 on the road.

Plus, believe it or not, the Marlins have a better run differential this season than the Giants (+19 to +18).

I’ll take Miami as home underdogs with an NL Cy Young candidate on the mound.