San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres (7/10/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

The San Francisco Giants find themselves in an unusual spot – under .500.

After a year in which the Giants won 107 games, they’ve seen more regression come for them than any other team.

Meanwhile, the Padres are excelling after a 2021 season wrought with disappointment. And they’re doing it with their two best players hurt.

But the Padres still have to beat a well-run organization as a divisional home favorite – a classic letdown spot for MLB teams.

So, where does the value lie in this game?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my predictions for this Sunday afternoon matchup at PetCo Park.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Odds

Gore has been a breakout candidate in the Padres rotation this season while Wood has been uncharacteristically poor. Therefore, it’s no wonder the Padres are slight favorites in this spot.

The total seems fair at 7.5, and with the wind projected to be blowing in, I’ll likely avoid taking either the over or the under.

San Francisco Giants Starting Lineup

A. Wood L
5-7 4.83 ERA

CF A. Slater R
1B W. Flores R
LF D. Ruf R
DH Y. Mercedes R
RF M. Yastrzemski L
2B T. Estrada R
SS B. Crawford L
3B D. Villar R
C J. Bart R

San Francisco Giants vs MacKenzie Gore

Gore was inconsistent in his rise up the MiLB ranks. He put together a 1.02 ERA in High-A ball before dropping a 4.15 ERA in Double-A ball and then posting a 3.00-flat ERA in his next season in Double-A.

But Gore has been rather solid this season, with a 3.18 ERA and some wonderfully efficient starts.

But it’s mostly smoke and mirrors. Gore walks too many batters – over four per nine innings – and pairs his ERA with a 4.55 xERA. His 6% HR/FB rate also feels unsustainably low. Gore is striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings, but his Whiff and Chase rates are rather low, plus he doesn’t limit hard contact at a good enough rate.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

Expect a four-seam fastball about 60% of the time. The thing doesn’t have a lot of play, being league average in both velocity (94mph) and spin rate (48th percentile).

The Giants field a league-average offense. Nothing more, nothing less. They’re hurt, with four players who are in the regular nine-man lineup currently on the IL.

I’d like to see more ABs from Austin Slater (135 OPS+) and Wilmer Flores (105 OPS+) moving forward. Plus, a resurgence from Mike Yastrzemski would be nice. Yaz started the season hot but has been a mess since, and it’s directly correlated with the Giants’ performance.

San Diego Padres Starting Lineup

M. Gore L
4-3 3.18 ERA

SS H. Kim R
2B J. Cronenworth L
3B M. Machado R
1B L. Voit R
C J. Alfaro R
DH A. Nola R
LF B. Rooker R
CF T. Grisham L
RF J. Azocar

San Diego Padres vs Alex Wood

Wood is significantly underperforming his metrics. A 4.83 ERA is not indicative of how well Wood has pitched, considering his BABIP is up at .336 and his strand rate is down at 62%. All-in-all, Wood’s xFIP is just 3.33.

Wood has just been consistent. He throws a three-pitch-mix, and he just tries to keep hitters off-balance from the left side to suppress exit velocities. He’s developed a slider over the last two seasons, although that pitch has seen serious regression after being quite good a year ago.

The biggest issue with Wood this season is that his spin rates have dropped significantly over the last two seasons. That never gives me much confidence.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

Wood has faced the Padres a whopping 18 times in his career, posting a respectable 3.42 ERA and 3.42 xFIP in the process. However, he allowed five runs over just three innings the last time he faced San Diego.

But this is a stripped-down, sad Padres lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. is still hurt. Manny Machado is playing hurt. Jurickson Profar is out for the foreseeable future alongside Wil Myers. As a result, the Padres have the fourth-lowest OPS in baseball over the last two weeks (.621).

Luckily, the Padres’ pitching rotation has picked them up, posting top-five marks in almost every major statistical category.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction

My picks: San Francisco Giants ML (+110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

I love betting divisional road underdogs, and think the Giants pose some value at plus-money.

Plus, I think the negative regression expected from Gore combines with the positive regression expected from Wood to make the Padres slightly overvalued here.

Gore pitched six one-run innings against the Giants earlier this season, but that was smoke and mirrors once again. His xFIP was up over 4.00 in that start as he walked two batters alongside four hits.

I’ll take the Giants at anything better than about +105.