On Thursday night, we’ll see two NFC playoff hopefuls face off as the Dallas Cowboys host the Seattle Seahawks. In this article, find Cowboys vs. Seahawks player prop picks & odds for the (11/30/23) matchup featuring Tony Pollard, Geno Smith, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jalen Tolbert.
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Seattle Seahawks Vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Picks
The books aren’t expecting a competitive game on Thursday night with the Cowboys lined as 9.5-point favorites, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the player prop markets. As always, use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks as they can vary greatly.
There’s one pick in this game that I love and then three other leans I have, and I’ll give you a write up of all four below. Follow me on Twitter @wayne_sports to see NFL player prop picks as I post them in real time. Let’s find some winners for Thursday Night Football!
Tony Pollard Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
This is my official Thursday Night Football player prop pick, and it’s one I’ve had in mind since watching the Thanksgiving games last week. Tony Pollard had a disappointingly slow start to the 2023 season, but he’s starting to look like the explosive player we all expected in recent weeks. Pollard is third in explosive run rate and fifth in yards after contact per attempt since Week 8 according to Fantasy Points Data.
Pollard’s efficiency has been climbing as he has logged two straight games over 5 yards per carry after doing so only twice through Week 10. He also has 15 missed tackles over the last three weeks after just eight over the first nine weeks. With a 78% snap share last week that ranked 7th in the NFL, he has the opportunity to match his talent.
The Seahawks’ run defense looked much improved to start the season, and they actually ranked first in run defense success rate through the first eight weeks. However, a season-ending torn pectoral to Uchenna Nwosu has coincided with a sharp decline in that regard as Seattle ranks 30th in run defense success rate from Week 9 on.
I looked into Pollard’s longest rush over 14.5 yards and his receiving props in this game, but I ultimately kept it simple and went with this rushing yardage prop. If you want to ladder his rushing yards and play some alternate lines, that’s a great approach as this looks like a smash spot for Pollard in primetime.
Geno Smith Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
At this price, this prop is more of just a lean for me, but I don’t foresee a high volume passing game for Geno Smith on Thursday. He’s averaging 235 passing yards over his last six games, but that was buoyed by 369 yards against the Commanders. Take that game away, and that number drops to 208.6 yards per game.
The Cowboys are allowing just 167.2 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the NFL, and they lean on an elite pass rush. The Seahawks rank 20th in pass block win rate and have had problems keeping Smith upright while the Cowboys lead the NFL in pass rush win rate per ESPN. Smith averages just 5.1 yards per attempt when under pressure, which ranks 27th among 38 qualified quarterbacks.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 3.5 Receptions (-150 DraftKings)
If Smith is under pressure all night on Thursday, that will likely lead to quicker, shorter throws. That works well for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 6.6-yard average depth of target ranks eighth-lowest among 102 qualified wide receivers. Smith-Njigba’s role in the offense has been growing and he has 4+ catches in four of his last seven games.
The Cowboys have been highly vulnerable against slot receivers recently as Jourdan Lewis has struggled in coverage, ranking 121st out of 132 qualified cornerbacks in PFF coverage grades. Recent slot receivers Curtis Samuel (9 catches for 100 yards) and Adam Thielen (8 catches for 74 yards) have torched Lewis, and JSN could be the next in line.
Jalen Tolbert Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+600 FanDuel)
Looking for a longshot touchdown prop on Thursday Night Football? What about Jalen Tolbert, the second-year receiver out of South Alabama whose role in the offense has been growing. Tolbert has only scored once in his career, but he has 2+ catches in four straight games and had 49 receiving yards on Thanksgiving.
Tolbert is priced in the same range as Michael Gallup with this prop despite being more involved in the offense than the veteran. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks will be the primary focal points for the Seattle defense, and while slowing down those receivers won’t be easy, Prescott has 4 passing touchdowns in three of his last five games, so there should be plenty to go around.