Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros (6/6/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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It’s a battle for the AL West in Houston Monday, evening, as the Mariners travel from the PNW to visit the Astros in the Astrodome.
While the Mariners were a public favorite to unseat the king of the division, Seattle has faltered (23-30, 11 GB). Meanwhile, Houston has proven it’s still the king (34-19, 7.5 game lead).
Expect defending AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray on the mound for Seattle, who has been anything but great so far in the PNW. Meanwhile, Cristian Javier will make the start for Houston.
Who’s got the edge in this AL West series?
Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for Monday night’s matchup.
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Odds
These odds seem rather steep for the Astros, even if they have every conceivable advantage in this game.
I generally don’t feel comfortable betting ML favorites bigger than -150. However, I don’t especially like the Mariners at +140, even with Ray on the mound.
Let’s see if there’s another angle we can take that provides more value.
Seattle Mariners Starting Lineup
2B Adam Frazier L
1B Ty France R
CF Julio Rodriguez R
DH Eugenio Suarez R
LF Jesse Winker L
3B Abraham Toro S
RF Steven Souza R
SS J.P. Crawford L
C Luis Torrens R
Seattle Mariners vs Cristian Javier
The Astros always put together a solid rotation, one headlined by Justin Verlander. But Houston has developed some impressive young pitchers in Luis Garcia and Framber Valdez.
Javier deserves to be in that category.
Through 10 appearances and six starts this season, Javier has posted a 2.41 ERA while keeping his xERA and FIP below 3.00. That’s a 0.9 fWAR season so far, and he’s only 41 innings in.
Coming into the league, Javier was scouted as a slider pitcher. He earned a 60 grade on his slider because of its tremendous horizontal movement – the thing spins.
Cristian Javier, Unfair Sliders. 😯 pic.twitter.com/OdRpRn6Oak
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 26, 2022
And last season, Javier posted a -10 Run Value on his slider, holding batters to a .172 wOBA and a Whiff rate close to 50%.
However, he’s started to put some heat on his four-seam. He’s picked up over a tick of velocity on the four-seam since entering the league and, as a result, Javier has also picked up an inch of rising action.
He’s posted a whopping -8 Run Value on the four-seam so far this season. Javier could turn into a dominant fastball-slider pitcher, which could project out well as either a top-tier reliever or a solid middle-rotation starter.
Seattle has rocked fastballs this year, posting the second-highest Weighted Fastball Runs created in MLB (33.5). But, the Mariners have faltered against Sliders (-13.8 Weighted Slider Runs created).
Seattle has a pretty solid lineup, one that’s above average in most metrics. But that lineup performs slightly better against righties, given there are four lefties and two switch-hitters in the lineup.
Houston Astros Starting Lineup
2B J. Altuve R
LF M. Brantley L
3B A. Bregman R
DH Y. Alvarez L
1B Y.Gurriel R
RF K. Tucker L
SS J. Pena R
CF J. Siri R
C M. Maldonado R
Houston Astros vs Robbie Ray
Ray is still striking out over 10 batters per nine innings, but his walks are way up. His control has been shaky all season, and batters have taken advantage.
Mostly because Ray has never been good at suppressing hard-hit balls. He ranks in exactly the 15th percentile of avg. exit velocity allowed over the last two seasons, and below the 40th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
He’s still a fastball-first pitcher, throwing his four-seam over 55% of the time. But he has increased the use of his slider this season, sadly without much success – he’s posted a +4 Run Value on the pitch so far this season.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Houston is above average against fastballs (10.8 Weighted Fastball Runs created) and sliders (2.7 Weighted Slider Runs created). But Javier should be scared about what Houston can do as a whole.
Over the last 30 days, Houston has had a 127 wRC+ against RHPs with the second-lowest strikeout rate (18.2%) and the 10th-highest walk rate (9.2%). This lineup doesn’t take a day – or a batter – off. The Astros are a grind.
Jose Altuve is back in form (147 OPS+, 10 HRs) while slugger Yordan Alvarez is thriving after locking down a new extension (180 OPS+, 15 HRs).
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Pick & Prediction
My picks: Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (+100 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
I could see Ray getting shelled today. I think this is a really good matchup for an Astros lineup that is hot right now.
Meanwhile, I don’t trust the Mariners’ bullpen. Seattle is 23rd in reliever ERA (4.29) and reliever FIP (4.19). There aren’t many trustworthy arms in the back end of the bullpen for Seattle.
Plus, it’s always nice to back the home team. I’ll take the Astros team total over 4.5 at anything better than -110.
