As if losing the Luis Castillo sweepstakes to the Mariners wasn’t enough, the Yankees are welcoming Castillo and the Mariners to Yankee Stadium for a three-game set between two contenders. Before Castillo makes his Mariners debut in the series finale on Wednesday, the Mariners will put breakout ace Logan Gilbert on the mound against Jameson Taillon on Tuesday night.
Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Tuesday’s matchup.
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees Betting Odds
The Yankees are favored at -168 on the moneyline, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. The Yankees easily have the best home record in baseball at 40-13, while the Mariners – as hot as they’ve otherwise been – have lost 6 of 7 to the Astros since the all-star break. There’s no shame in losing to the Astros, but the only AL team that happens to rival Houston’s excellence happens to be these Yankees. Seattle still has a real chance without Julio Rodriguez in this one because of Logan Gilbert, who has been among baseball’s most consistent starters this season – even against tough opponents.
Seattle Mariners Starting Lineup
2B A. Frazier L
DH T. France R
SS J. Crawford L
1B C. Santana S
LF J. Winker L
3B E. Suarez R
RF K. Lewis R
C C. Raleigh S
CF J. Kelenic L
Seattle Mariners vs. Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon has had an up-and-down season, with more downs than ups over the past six weeks. The 30-year-old is 10-2 with a 3.72 ERA through 20 starts (109 IP), along with a 3.68 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, and a career-best 1.4 BB/9 rate. Though Taillon is coming off six scoreless innings against the Royals, he has a 5.36 ERA over his last 10 starts. Batters are hitting .296 against him in that span, and he’s only lasted 6 full innings twice.
The Mariners’ already shaky offense is hamstrung by the absence of rookie Julio Rodriguez, who avoided a broken hand when he was hit by a pitch in Houston but still required an IL stint. Seattle is 23rd in runs per game with 4.04, and the offense hasn’t taken much of a step forward even as the team has started winning. The Mariners had a .695 OPS in July, slightly below their team OPS of .700. Ty France is the name to watch. France has been hitting like he did during his all-star first half since returning from the IL, but he’s day-to-day with a wrist injury. Getting him back in the lineup will be key. With or without France, it’s tough to see where the power might come from in this lineup. Mariners hitters not named France or Rodriguez have 4 home runs since the break. That’s not a way to win games, especially against Taillon, who strictly limits walks.
New York Yankees Starting Lineup
1B D.J. LeMahieu R
CF A. Judge R
DH A. Rizzo L
3B J. Donaldson R
2B G. Torres R
RF A. Benintendi R
LF A. Hicks S
SS I. Kiner-Falefa R
C J. Trevino R
New York Yankees vs. Logan Gilbert
Just as the Yankees finally facing Luis Castillo was a treat last month, Logan Gilbert’s first start in Yankee Stadium is must-see TV. Gilbert carved up the Yankees as a rookie, allowing two baserunners over 7 shutout innings. He’s built on that taste of success in his second season, cruising along to a 2.78 ERA through 21 starts (123 IP) with a 3.43 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts. Even while not striking out as many batters as last season, Gilbert has done a better job of limiting hits and home runs. He’s been among baseball’s steadiest pitchers, never allowing more than 4 earned runs in a start.
The Yankees have one of baseball’s best offenses, led by presumed MVP Aaron Judge. Is it too early to say that? Judge has 42 home runs with 2+ months left in the season and has hit more homers since the all-star break than the entire Mariners team. Gilbert will have to be careful with Judge, as will any pitcher, and he’ll have to watch Anthony Rizzo’s sneaky power too. DJ LeMahieu, surprisingly, has helped pick up some of the power the Yankees lost when Giancarlo Stanton went on the IL. I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrew Benintendi finds a rhythm this week as he gets more comfortable in New York. Gilbert doesn’t typically let teams string together hits, so the Yankees may need to utilize the home run – as they often do – to do what they couldn’t last year and beat him.
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees Picks & Prediction
My pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-114 on FanDuel)
Logan Gilbert has held his own in four starts against the Astros this season, pitching to a 2.52 ERA. I’m not too worried he’ll be intimidated by the bright lights of Yankee Stadium or this Yankees offense, as powerful as it is. On the other hand, the Mariners don’t have much going for them offensively with Julio Rodriguez out of the picture. Jameson Taillon has had some rough starts over the past few weeks, but he cruised against an inferior lineup last week, and that’s what this Mariners lineup is when it’s missing Rodriguez (and potentially Ty France). It still may be worth giving Seattle a look at +142 given Gilbert’s dominance. There’s the potential for this game to look like the one the Reds won in New York with Castillo on the mound last month.