Seattle is coming off a big win against Philadelphia, and will head to Green Bay to take on a familiar opponent despite not being in the same division. Green Bay had the weekend off after earning a bye week. This is going to be a battle between two teams that averaged right around 23.5 points per game. Seattle is allowing 23.9 points per game, compared to Green Bay’s 19.6. The Packers are four point favorites at the moment, and there is an over/under set at 46 points. Winning on the road hasn’t been a problem for the Seahawks this season. They went 7-1 in the regular season, and of course won on the road against Philadelphia. Green Bay was money at home as well, going 7-1, and winning the final five games of the season. This bye week may or may not have a factor for Green Bay in terms of momentum. The Packers will look to establish the ground game against a pedestrian run defense, and this is where the offense has come from for most of the season. Seattle’s run game evaporated with injuries, and we should see them turn to the playmakers in the passing game like we did last week. DK Metcalf is coming off a monster game, and Tyler Lockett also made some big plays. For odds line movement, and full matchup history, see the Seattle Seahawks At Green Bay Packers Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, January 12th,
Time: 6:40 ET
Location: Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Seattle Seahawks: Jaron Brown (P), Mike Iupati (P), Corey Linsley (P)
Green Bay Packers: Bryan Bulaga (Q), Jamaal Williams (P)
Seattle Seahawks Analysis
The Seahawks went 7-1 on the road this season, and won last week against Philadelphia. Road teams were 3-1 in the opening round, although I don’t bank on that number repeating. However, Seattle has a chance to pull off the road upset this week again. Offensively this team struggled a bit down the stretch, but overall put up the 9th most points and 8th most yards. They were 4th in passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and second in red zone touchdowns. The rushing numbers are misleading now given that Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny are done for the year. Seeing what we saw last week, I don’t have a lot of hope they can exploit the bottom half run defense for the Packers. Defensively this team is not as good as prior years. They didn’t allow many passing touchdowns, but ranked 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 22nd in rushing yards allowed. This defense can be beaten, but the Packers offense hasn’t shown much flash to give me any sort of confidence for a crooked number. Russell Wilson had another strong season, posting over 30 touchdowns and 4,000 yards. Tyler Lockett was the go-to name, posting an 82-1057-8 line. DK Metcalf put up seven touchdowns and 900 yards. The defense will have a tough task against this run defense, and they will need to focus on this a bit. Philly still ran the ball well on them, going for 120 yards and 4.6 yards per carry, but Eagles offense was going to hit a wall with Carson Wentz going out early in the game.
Seattle Seahawks Depth Chart
Green Bay Packers Analysis
Despite not having a ton of success through the air this season, Green Bay threw the ball 59% of the time, compared to their 40% run rate. The Packers struggled to convert on third down, and averaged 5.4 yards per play. Both these teams are fairly similar, we are splitting hairs in a lot of categories. Offensively the Packers were middle of the road in a lot of stats. They were seventh in rushing touchdowns and 12th in red zone touchdowns. Their passing production was average at best. Defensively they allowed the 5th fewest passing touchdowns, and 14th fewest passing yards. Their run game were bottom 12 in rushing yards allowed and touchdowns allowed. Aaron Rodgers finished the year with 4,002 yards and 26 touchdowns. Definitely not a bad year given the considerations of not having a lot of weapons and Adams missing a few games. He finished with 127 targets in 12 games, and posted an 83-997-5 line. Allen Lazard finished the season with 35 receptions 477 yards and three scores. He came on late and led the other receivers in touchdowns and receiving yards. The running backs dominated the year. Aaron Jones ran for 4.6 yards per carry, and produced over 1,000 yards on the game, averaging one touchdown per game. Both Williams and Jones combined for over 700 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. I would like to see them both used heavily this week, and if they don’t I have a hard time seeing this Packers team coming out with a win.
Green Bay Packers Depth Chart
Betting Pick: Seattle Seahawks +4 & Under 46
We should see another heavy backing for the Seahawks, coming in at +4. Green Bay has largely been viewed as worse than their record suggests. Seattle was an even ATS team this season, but that was mainly at home where they had a sunken ship. On the road they were 6-2-1. Green Bay was 5-3 ATS at home, but they are a tough team to buy into given the offense isn’t capable of putting up monster numbers, and the defense has struggled at times. With the Seahawks having little to no run game now, letting Russell Wilson run the show is a real plus for the Seahawks and those backing them this week. This should be a closely contested game, and I would not be surprised to see it come down to a final play. The under is also another strong betting pick for this week. We should see more offense this week, but I am not banking on it being here. Games on the road for Seattle have gun under five of the nine times. At home for Green Bay, the under has gone 5-3. With the lack of playmaking options in the pass game for Green Bay, I don’t expect a huge offensive outcome. Seattle’s offense has been pretty stagnant over the last few weeks, and both teams hovering around 20 points per game over the last three, that should continue.
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Daily Fantasy: Aaron Jones In Spot To Run Wild
The Seahawks rank 26th in DVOA against the run this season, and they allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. They really struggled over the final five weeks of the regular season as well. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have had their moments this season, and Jones has found the end zone 19 times, and finished the year over 1,000 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry. Jones should have actually had a higher workload if you ask me, and has crushed during his three years with Green Bay. Both him and Williams also have worked well in passing game this season, and Seattle struggled there allowing 815 receiving yards to backs this season, which is the 4th most in the league. This is a great spot for Jones to have a heavy workload and to be a big time fantasy producer this week. As far as the passing game goes, Davante Adams and Allen Lazard have been the main weapons over the last few weeks. Generally I would want to target tight ends against Seattle, yet Jimmy Graham is a tough name to plug in given how he has looked this season. If you are playing matchups, it isn’t the worst dart throw, but another Graham dud is in the range of outcomes. Adams missed four games and still posted an 83-997-5 line with 127 targets. He is the go-to-guy, and will see a bulk of the targets. Unlike last week, Seattle will have to face a legitimate WR1. Lazard is a GPP threat to consider who has seen more work down the stretch. He is a clear upgrade from the rest of the Packers wideouts.
As for the Seattle side, I usually want to hammer running backs against the Packers poor run defense, yet this backfield is tough to get excited about. Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer are splitting carries, and neither have looked great. The Packers ranked 23rd in DVOA against the run, and tenth against the pass. Despite the better secondary, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are the prime targets here. Metcalf is coming off a monster game, and while this is a better secondary, he is a clear deep threat and red zone target for Seattle. Lockett has been a reliable target, and his potential this week is big. Lockett saw eight targets last week against Philadelphia, going for a 4-62-0 line. Green Bay allowed the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, so not a bad matchup for Jacob Hollister. He should see 4-5 targets, who had some decent games since taking over halfway through the season.