Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview (11/8/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
This is perhaps the most exciting matchup on this week’s slate between the 6-1 Seahawks and 6-2 Bills. Both teams are making the case at being considered dark horse Super Bowl contenders that nobody expected before the season. The Bills currently sit atop the AFC East and are the #3 seed in the AFC behind the Steelers and Chiefs. The Seahawks sit atop the NFC West as well as the NFC Conference – if the season ended today, they would get the one critical first-round bye for their conference as well as a home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The NFC West is loaded with the Cardinals (5-2), Rams (5-3), and 49ers (4-4) all in the playoff picture, so the Seahawks have a minimal margin for error as the season progresses. The Bills have a huge opportunity to make a statement win against an elite team at home, but the Seahawks will come out firing, which should be a really fun game.
For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, November 8th, 2020
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium – Buffalo, NY
TV Coverage: FOX
Seahawks vs. Bills Live Stream
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Seattle Seahawks: CB Shaquill Griffin (hamstring) Q, TE Greg Olsen (foot) Q, WR David Moore (ankle) Q, FS D.J. Reed (hip) Q, SS Ryan Neal (hip) Q, DE Benson Mayowa (ankle) Q, OG Mike Iupati (back) Q, RB Chris Carson (foot) Q, RB Travis Homer (knee) Q, SS Jamal Adams (groin) Q, RB Carlos Hyde (hamstring) O
Buffalo Bills: TE Dawson Knox (calf) Q, LB Matt Milano (pectoral) Q, DT Quinton Jefferson (knee) Q, CB Josh Norman (hamstring) Q, OG Cody Ford (knee) Q, OG Brian Winters (knee) Q, C Mitch Morse (concussion) Q
Seattle Seahawks Analysis
The Seahawks’ success has been drive by their offense as they have scored the most points per game (34.3) and rank third in offensive yards per game (414.4). They’ve needed their offense to be elite as their defense has been torched all season. Seattle has allowed 28.4 points per game, 9th-most, and is one of just two teams with winning records who have allowed 28+ points per game.
Luckily for Seattle, Russell Wilson is in the middle of what looks like it will end up being the best season of his career. Wilson has thrown 26 touchdowns through 7 games, putting him on an absurd 16-game pace of 60 touchdowns. He also ranks third in the NFL in completion percentage (71.5%), first in passer rating (120.7), and 4th in QB DYAR per Football Outsiders. The Bills’ defense is going to have a tough time containing Russ this week.
The Seahawks will be leaning heavily on Wilson’s arm this week as running backs Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Homer are still listed as questionable. Rookie DeeJay Dallas made his first career start last week, and while he did run for a touchdown, he was inefficient at just a 2.23 YPC clip. The Seahawks struggled to establish any ground game last week against the 49ers, but the Bills have the eighth-worst run defense per Football Outsiders, so the Seahawks should be more successful on the ground.
Both Tyler Lockert and D.K. Metcalf has had phenomenal seasons with some massive games along the way, although not always at the same time. Lockett caught 15 balls for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns two weeks ago against the Cardinals. Last week, Metcalf bounced back with 12 catches for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns. Football Outsiders has Lockett ranked as the 2nd-best wide receiver in DYAR and the 5th-best in DVOA, while Metcalf is the 8th-best receiver in DYAR and the 16th-best in DVOA. The Bills will likely shadow Metcalf with lockdown corner Tre’Davious White this week, and Lockett should face softer coverage in the slot, so I’m expecting Lockett to be the go-to guy.
The Seahawks’ defense hasn’t been up-to-par this season as they’ve given up by far the most passing yards per game and have defended like a team fighting for a top draft pick, not a top seed in the playoffs. Football Outsiders ranks Seattle as the 6th-best run defense, impressively, but the 30th-best passing offense, which is arguably more important. Bobby Wagner, the heart and soul of this defense, won NFC Defensive Player of the Week last week with 11 tackles, two sacks, and four quarterback hits. Wagner’s great play looks sustainable, but Jamal Adams will likely remain out. The Seahawks could be in for another long week against Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense.
Seattle Seahawks Depth Chart
Buffalo Bills Analysis
The Bills’ 6-2 record is pretty impressive when you look at the team’s numbers on the surface. Buffalo’s offense ranks as the 19th-best in scoring and 13th-best in yardage, and their defense ranks 14th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed – none of those numbers suggest this team is a high-level Super Bowl contender.
Josh Allen looked like a potential MVP candidate early when he threw for 12 touchdowns to 1 interception over four games. Over his past four games, those numbers have dropped to 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. John Brown has just 1 catch over that span after 14 over the first few weeks. As Brown recovers from his lingering injuries, he logged a full practice this week, and his field-stretching ability will be a huge factor in making life easier for Allen. Allen has also produced on the ground as he has rushed 58 times for 227 yards and 4 touchdowns. Allen ranks 4th in QBR per Football Outsiders, and he needs to be at his best in this game as he goes toe-to-toe with Wilson.
Devin Singletary finally produced last week for the Bills as he rushed for 86 yards on 14 carries. Meanwhile, rookie Zack Moss rushed for 81 yards on 14 carries with two touchdowns. Neither Singletary nor Moss gets a full starting workload, but the presence of a mobile quarterback in Josh Allen helps open up rushing lanes for their RBs. The Seahawks, however, have allowed just the 9th-fewest rushing yards per game (102.1) and rank as Football Outsiders’ 6th-best run defense, so this could be a tough week for the Bills’ ground game. The Bills will also be without center Mitch Morse and possibly offensive guards Cody Ford and Brian Winters, which would leave their offensive line very thin.
The arrival of Stefon Diggs has clearly helped Josh Allen’s game continue to progress, and he’s certainly appreciated having a true X receiver – he’s targeted Diggs 79 times this season, the most of any receiver in the NFL. Cole Beasley has also been extremely productive for this offense as Allen’s safety blanket over the middle of the field. John Brown continues to work his way back from some nagging injuries, and his return to full health would be massive with his field-stretching ability. The Seahawks have given up the most passing yards per game, and this Bills’ passing offense could be in for a huge game.
After being one of the league’s top units last season, the Bills have not stepped up how many people thought they would defensively this year. Injuries to defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson, linebacker Matt Milano, and cornerback Josh Norman has left the defense weaker at all three levels. The Bills have allowed opposing quarterbacks to a 97.7. QBR, the ninth-highest in the NFL, and will struggle to meaningfully slow down Russ enough to keep their offense in it.
Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
Betting Corner Seahawks -3
Spread: Seahawks -3, Bills +3
Moneyline: Seahawks -160, Bills +135
Over/Under: 55 points
This game opened with Seattle favored by 1.5 points, and public money quickly flew to the Seahawks. They’re now at a -3 margin, with 68% of public bets coming in on the Seahawks in this matchup. Seattle’s -160 ML implies a 61.5% win probability, while Buffalo has a 42.6% win probability. Obviously, that adds up to more than 100% – that extra 4% is the “vig” charged to you by sportsbooks. The Seahawks are 5-2 ATS this season, so they’ve done better in that regard than public perception might suggest, while the Bills are 3-5 ATS this year. The Seahawks are also 10-3 straight up in their last 13 games on the road. I trust Russell Wilson way more than Josh Allen, although I expect some offensive fireworks from both teams. The total has gone over in 6 of Seattle’s last 8 games and 6 of Buffalo’s last 8 games, so I’d lean that direction here as well. The weather forecast in Buffalo for Sunday presents beautiful football conditions – sunny and 64° F with 5 mph wind. Neither of these teams will be at full strength on Sunday, and I really wouldn’t be shocked if the Bills pull this off, but their failure to cover against both the Jets and the Patriots over the past two weeks leaves me less than confident in Buffalo. I’ll pick Seattle to win 31-27, so over 55 points, and I think the Seahawks cover the spread.
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Daily Fantasy Picks
It’s been over a month since Josh Allen has surpassed 17 fantasy points in a game, but I think that changes this week. The Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year along with the most passing yards per game and are dealing with injuries in their secondary, most notably to Jamal Adams and Shaquil Griffin. Allen is at a comfortable price of $7,000 for DraftKings, and I’m stacking him with Stefon Diggs on many teams.
Speaking of Diggs, he’s one of my favorite wide receiver plays for DraftKings this week at $7,400. He leads the NFL in targets and has 6+ catches in all but one game this season. Diggs should be locked in for another 10ish targets this week, and he absolutely has the advantage against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. With Josh Allen forced to throw early and often given the game script, there’s a chance Diggs has his best game of the season this week.
As the QB1 in fantasy this season, Russell Wilson has been unbelievable and is on pace for 60 passing touchdowns, which would surely lock him in for the MVP. However, his price saw a drop this week after Patrick Mahomes’s impressive performance, and Wilson is now at $7,600 on DraftKings, behind Mahomes and Kyler Murray. Wilson is matchup-proof, and the Bills’ secondary hasn’t been great this year, so give me some Russell Wilson this week.
I spoke about this earlier, but I believe this week will be a Tyler Lockett week instead of D.K. Metcalf. I’m expecting the Bills to shadow Metcalf with Tre’Davious White, one of the best cover corners in the NFL. Meanwhile, Lockett will likely see a lot of Taron Johnson in the slot, who’s a much more beatable player. Lockett ($6,800) is $1,000 cheaper than D.K. Metcalf ($7,800), and I think there’s a solid chance Lockett outscores him this week.
I love the Bills’ offense for DFS this week, and that extends to Cole Beasley, who had put up 11+ PPR points in six straight weeks before last week’s disappointing outing against the Patriots. The Seahawks have allowed the most passing yards per game by a wide margin, and I think there’s going to be enough volume to go around this week to support Diggs, Beasley, and John Brown. Beasley is a strong play at $5,400.