Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview (10/3/21) Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
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Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview (10/3/21)
Both the Seahawks and 49ers are entering this game off a tough loss, and both are hungry to bounce back. While the Seahawks enter this game at 1-2 straight up (SU), both are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) so far this season.
Seattle has dominated this series, winning eight of the last 10 meetings between the two. That includes sweeping the season series last year, although the first game is when Jimmy Garoppolo was injured and subsequently ruled out for the year.
Coming off a loss, Pete Carroll is 24-19 ATS while Kyle Shanahan is just 5-7. However, almost every trend points towards Seattle in this game.
But does that mean the Seahawks are worth a bet as short road underdogs? Or do we back the 49ers to move to 3-1?
Let’s dive into this matchup and find the most profitable betting angle.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds
In his career, Russell Wilson is 20-11-2 ATS as a road dog and 26-14-4 ATS coming off a loss. Meanwhile, Shanahan is a lousy 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his head coaching career.
The 49ers’ defense is destroyed, and Wilson is going to rip apart a short-handed secondary. While the Seattle defense has played lousy all season, I don’t think Garoppolo can keep up. Carroll and Wilson will run their high-flying Seattle offense, and Garoppolo currently has the third-lowest Average Depth of Target among qualified quarterbacks.
So, unless the 49ers can score 35 or more on the ground, I love Seattle and the points in this spot.
My Predictions: Seattle +3 (-115 on DraftKings)
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You can bet on this NFL game legally. Sports betting has been legalized in the US. You must be located in a legalized state in order to bet online.
TV Schedule
Date: Sunday, October 3
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco, CA
TV Coverage: FOX
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Live Stream
Where can you watch Seahawks vs. 49ers online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Seahawks vs. 49ers Free Online Now.
Injuries
Seattle Seahawks: RB Rashaad Penny (OUT), WR D’Wayne Eskridge (OUT)
San Francisco 49ers: RB Raheem Mostert (OUT), RB Elijah Mitchell (OUT), RB JaMycal Hasty (OUT), WR Jalen Hurd (OUT), LB Dre Greenlaw (OUT), CB Jason Verrett (OUT), CB Emmanuel Moseley (OUT)
Seattle Seahawks Analysis
The Seattle defense looked exactly like I expected it to when not playing against Carson Wentz: Bad.
Specifically, the Seattle defense is getting shredded through the air. The Legion of Boom is long gone, and this Seattle secondary lacks talent. Even Jamal Adams, who just signed a $70 million contract extension, ranks just 70th among Safties in PFF’s coverage grades (126 total safeties). There have even been talks of moving Adams to linebacker.
Jamal Adams in Week 3:
10 Arm Bands 🔥 🔥 🔥
0 Sacks ❌
MULTIPLE Tackles after 15+ yard gains by the offense ✅
In the GENRAL AREA of Vikings Players that caught the ball for big gains or first downs 🥶🥶🤧🤧
— Nick (@seahawksnerd75) September 26, 2021
As such, the Seahawks rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ Pass Defense DVOA and dead last in Defensive Dropback Success Rate (60.7%). They’ve given up over 300 yards passing and over 30 points in their last two contests.
The Minnesota game was ugly. Not only did Kirk Cousins look like Tom Brady, but the Vikings also rushed for 140 yards without Dalvin Cook and converted nine of their 14 third-down opportunities.
But thank goodness for Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf. Wilson is completing 78% of his passes with a 7:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and five Big Time Throws to zero Turnover Worthy Plays. Unfortunately, he’s been sacked nine times already, and Seattle’s offensive line has posted the league’s eighth-worst Adjusted Sack Rate (8.8%).
While the Seattle offense grades out poorly in PFF’s run block ratings, the Seahawks have been very effective at rushing the ball. The Seahawks rank second in Rush Expected Points Added (EPA) and fourth in Rush Success Rate, and their 5.1 yards per carry trails just Philadelphia and Baltimore. Additionally, the offense is getting stuffed at the lowest rate in the league. Thank goodness for Chris Carson, who’s racked up over 200 yards on over 40 attempts through two games.
All-in-all, Seattle trails just Los Angeles in Total Offense DVOA.
Seattle Seahawks Depth Chart
QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: Chris Carson
RB2: Rashaad Penny
WR1: DK Metcalf
WR2: Tyler Lockett
WR3: Freddie Swain
TE1: Gerald Everett
San Francisco 49ers Analysis
While the advanced stats suggest that the 49ers have been as successful rushing the ball as passing the ball (11th in Passing DVOA, 7th in Rush DVOA), it’s clear that Shanahan needs to rely more on his ground attack.
Last week against Green Bay, the 49ers managed just 67 rush yards at only 3.2 yards per attempt, the lowest rushing total for San Francisco since Week 10 of last season. As such, the offense leaned on Garoppolo.
He completed 25 of his 40 passes but for only 6.4 yards per attempt while adding two turnovers. Garoppolo’s interception and lost fumble made all the difference in a two-point game, especially when the defense didn’t force a turnover.
The 49ers generally have a pretty good defense, but they are super short-staffed at the moment. San Francisco has cornerbacks Emmanuel Mosley and Jason Verrett on the IR alongside linebacker Dre Greenlaw. Mosley and Greenlaw constitute the team’s two highest-graded coverage defenders, per PFF.
So, if Shanahan and DeMeco Ryans try to play man coverage this week, 49ers fans are going to have a bad time.
San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB1: Trey Sermon
RB2: Elijah Mitchell
WR1: Deebo Samuel
WR2: Brandon Aiyuk
TE1: George Kittle
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Daily Fantasy Picks
Either Lockett or Metcalf are good choices. Both are going to get plenty of snaps and will have huge mismatches against their coverage counterparts.
If I had to pick one, however, I’d probably go with Metcalf. PFF has him graded slightly higher, and he’s compiled 30% of Seattle’s Target Marketshare compared to Lockett’s 25%. Plus, Lockett was almost invisible last week against Minnesota, so I’m a little hesitant to depend on him for a bounce-back week.
On the other side, I’d take a look at Deebo Samuel. Samuel is the bonafide No. 1 target in San Francisco, as he’s compiled 35% of the 49ers’ Target Marketshare, compared to just 20% for George Kittle. He’s also averaging over 16 yards per reception and almost 10 YAC per reception, and he has some rushing yards upside as well.
- Bills @ Rams
- Saints @ Falcons
- Browns @ Panthers
- 49ers @ Bears
- Steelers @ Bengals
- Eagles @ Lions
- Colts @ Texans
- Patriots @ Dolphins
- Ravens @ Jets
- Jaguars @ Commanders
- Giants @ Titans
- Chiefs @ Cardinals
- Raiders @ Chargers
- Packers @ Vikings
- Buccaneers @ Cowboys
- Broncos @ Seahawks
