Georgia (11-1) takes on LSU (12-0) this Saturday to claim a spot atop of the SEC. As of now, both Georgia and LSU are in ranked in the top-4, putting them in the College Football Playoff. LSU looks to locked in regardless of Saturday’s outcome. However, Georgia will need to beat LSU to get in the playoff because no two-loss team has ever made it. As of writing this, 71 percent of tickets are on LSU, and 53 percent believe the game will stay under 56 points.
Date: Saturday, December 7, 2019
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Georgia hasn’t met expectations on offense this season. The Bulldogs rank 21st in success rate, but are 47th in points per game. Also, they have struggled to move the ball on some of the better defenses this season. Georgia matches up pretty evenly across the board against the LSU defense. No team has an advantage in the trenches either. However, they do rank 61st in passing explosiveness where LSU is one of the worst teams in defending it. This is one thing Georgia can exploit on offense. The problem is they will be missing their top two receivers Saturday. Lawrence Cager is out with after having ankle surgery this week, and George Pickens is suspended for the first half after getting ejected against Georgia Tech last week. This is going to be a huge disadvantage for Georgia’s offense with not having their best receivers, especially in the first half.
The Bulldogs defense hasn’t skipped a beat from last season. They are the second best team limiting their opponents points per game, and 10th in success rate. Georgia hasn’t allowed over 17 points in any game this season. However, they haven’t seen an offense like LSU’s yet. They matchup very well against LSU. Georgia should have an edge with their defensive line, which could shakeup how Joe Burrow plays in the pocket. Also, Georgia’s defense is holding teams to 2.7 yards per rush this season, so they shouldn’t be concerned about slowing down Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Georgia hasn’t seen a offense like this, but LSU hasn’t seen a defense like this either. How well the Bulldogs defense slows down the Joe Burrow and the LSU offense will dictate if Georgia can get the win and secure a playoff spot.
By this point, everyone knows how great LSU’s offense has been this season. Joe Burrow is most likely going to win the Heisman Trophy next week. They’re the most efficient offense in the nation and average 47.2 points per game. However, this isn’t a clear cut matchup that the Tigers have the edge. Georgia has the best defense that LSU has seen this year. LSU was held to 23 points to Auburn earlier this season, who has a similar defense to Georgia’s, but the Bulldogs defense is better and can slow down Burrow. LSU is at a slight disadvantage with their offensive line, but Georgia ranks 71st in havoc created. This will help LSU, as the Bulldogs struggled to get to the quarterback. Also, LSU and Georgia matchup evenly in the rushing attack. The Tigers edge is in the passing game with Burrow, but it isn’t by a wide margin.
LSU hasn’t had the best defensive performance this season. The Tigers have been known as DBU in recent years, but have been susceptible to explosive pass plays. Last week, they held Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond to 92 passing yards, and three interceptions. That was a much needed statement from an LSU defense that needed to step up. This week, their defense will have an edge on the Georgia offense. The Bulldogs will be without their top two receivers George Pickens and Lawrence Cager. Georgia is going to struggle to create explosive pass plays that LSU has been susceptible from allowing all season. This will help LSU focus more on trying to stop D’Andre Swift out of the backfield. The Tigers rank 14th in the country in havoc created, so they could make it a long day for Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm.
Betting Pick: 1st Half Under 27.5
Given the circumstances, not too many points should be scored in the first half. Georgia missing their top two receivers will hurt them, as they have been inconsistent on offense all season. Also, LSU has been capable of putting up huge first half numbers this season. However, Georgia is the best defense the Tigers have seen this year, and matchup very well against them. Again, Auburn is the closest defense to Georgia’s, and Auburn held LSU to 23 points. I don’t know if Georgia will be able to do that, but they should do enough to make it a low scoring first half.