SEC Odds, Predictions, Betting Preview 2022 College Football

It Just Means More.

Every year, the SEC does not disappoint. The last time the SEC didn’t have a team playing for the National Championship was 2014 – back when Urban Meyer last won something.

While everyone expects an Alabama-Georgia rematch in both the SEC Championship and the Natty, I think things have opened up. Some teams have made major improvements and there are plenty of new faces in the crowd. Take LSU’s new Head Coach Brian Kelly or South Carolina’s new quarterback Spencer Rattler.

What can we expect out of the SEC in 2022? Let’s take a look at the SEC Betting Odds and see if there are any SEC Futures we can target now.

SEC Betting Preview & Odds

The betting market runs like clockwork in the Southeast.

Alabama opens as a heavy favorite to win the West, while Georgia opens as a heavy favorite to win the East.

But, I think Georgia is no longer a clear-cut to win the East, and there might be value in taking someone else considering the Bulldogs are -550. Tennessee and Florida made massive strides in the offseason, Mark Stoops consistently overachieves with Kentucky, and South Carolina’s Rattler provides plenty of upside for the Gamecocks.

I think the East is more wide-open than we think. Plus, someone somewhere in the media voted that Vanderbilt would take down the SEC crown this season. Food for thought.

I have two big questions regarding the West.

  1. How good can Texas A&M be? They’re +600 to win the West and have the second-highest win total hovering between 8.5 and 9. Jimbo Fisher brings in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class behind 11 returning starters. The ceiling for this team is the Natty.
  2. What do we expect from LSU? Brain Kelly has a long road ahead rebuilding this roster but is one of the best Xs and Os guys in the game.

Let’s break down the conference team by team, in order by my power rankings.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

Once again, Nick Saban’s squad opens as the National Championship favorite, the SEC Championship favorite, and the SEC West favorite. You can get the Tide’s win total at either 10.5 or 11.5, but the 10.5 is heavily juiced to the over and the 11.5 is heavily juiced to the under. So, I consider the win total a wash.

Alabama suffers their usual losses to the NFL draft but returns a surprising amount of production. The Tide return the defending Heisman winner in quarterback Bryce Young and the defending Nagurski winner in Will Anderson in addition to five offensive starters and seven defensive starters. Alabama also brings in the nation’s second-rated recruiting class and four explosive offensive transfers including RB Jahmyr Gibbs from Georgia Tech. Add in offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien returning, and this team could rival 2020’s.

You could target Young to win the Heisman back-to-back at +400 (DraftKings), but it’ll be a war with CJ Stroud. Voter fatigue is a factor too. I’ll pass here.

The schedule doesn’t seem too tricky. They could see some trouble at Texas in Week 2 but I’m sure the Longhorns produce their usual letdown game. Brain Kelly and LSU travel to Tuscaloosa off a bye, but Saban’s team has their bye the week before as well.

The one big fade spot I see is October 1st at Arkansas.

Saban’s team could get caught looking ahead to a revenge game against Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies the next week, but you cannot sleep against Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks. Pittman is 14-7 ATS as the head coach of the Razorbacks and 11-3 as an underdog. I’m also relatively high on the Razorbacks.

The most likely path for this season is for Alabama and Ohio State to meet up in the National Championship game. If you want to target ‘Bama to win it all at +175 (DraftKings), that’s probably your best bet.

Outside of that Arkansas game, I’ll pass on Alabama.

Potential Bets:

  • Alabama National Championship (+175 at DraftKings)
  • Arkansas ATS vs Alabama in Week 5

Georgia Bulldogs Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

The Bulldogs went 14-1 SU, 10-5 ATS, Kirby Smart won Coach of the Year, and the Bulldogs won the Natty.

As such, you’re going to see plenty of roster turnover. One of the greatest defenses in the history of college football lost eight starters to the NFL. But there’s still some experience in the room on top of two five-star recruits in the front seven (DL Mykel Williams, Edge Marvin Jones Jr.).

I’d take a good look at this offense. Stetson Bennett returns after a surprisingly productive season. The RB room is loaded with three top-tier returners and a top-tier true freshman in Branson Robinson. This is also the best TE room in the country.

All-in-all, the Bulldogs added talent to an offense that returns seven starters and a quarterback with upside. They’ll score more.

The downside is they only have three true home SEC games and ultimately will take a step back in its true talent level. There could be some slight value on taking a win total under 11.5, but you’ll have to pay heavy juice to do it (well over -200).

Tough spots include Week 1 against Oregon on neutral ground (Smart just 5-5 ATS vs. Pac-12 foes) and Week 3 at South Carolina (sleeper spot and upside in S.C. quarterback room with Rattler).

Potential Bets:

  • None

Texas A&M Aggies Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

Zach Calzada is gone and honestly, good riddance. Max Johnson was more productive at LSU anyways (60.3% completion, 2815 yards, 27 TDs, 6 INTs) and gets a much-improved offensive line in College Station. Six starters are back on that side and they have five-star recruit Evan Stewart to boost the wide receiver room. They will take a step back in the RB room, however.

Six defensive starters are gone alongside defensive coordinator Mike Elko (replaced by Ole Miss’ DJ Durkin). So, expect a step back on the defensive side. But they also recruited three five-star guys on the defensive line (Walter Nolen, Shemar Stewart, Lebbeus Overton).

Expanding on that, this is the nation’s No. 1 overall recruiting class. Jimbo landed eight five-star commits, which is equal to what Saban and Kirby pulled in combined. The amount of upside for the Aggies is huge.

The schedule is rough, maybe a top-10 toughest nationally. The worst stretch is Weeks 3 through 6, where they play Arkansas on neutral ground and then get road matchups against Mississippi State and Alabama.

That Miss State game is huge. It’s a massive sandwich spot and the Aggies are likely looking ahead to a game against Saban and co. Plus, I’m a little higher on Miss State than most, and they’ll be underrated. Not to mention Will Rogers can steal any game he plays in. I’ll find myself on the Bulldogs in that game no question.

However, the window is closing for Fisher, and this is an ultra-talented roster. If Fisher can navigate his way through the first half of the season and then wallop Ole Miss, Florida, and LSU at home down the stretch, we’re looking at a playoff team.

Because of all that, I’m taking a shot with TAMU at +2500 to win it all (DraftKings). The amount of upside with this recruiting class and this offense is too much to ignore.

Potential Bets:

  • Mississippi State ATS vs Texas A&M in Week 4
  • Texas A&M National Champion (+2500 at DraftKings)

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

Bettors love Sam Pittman. Coming off his second year in Fayetteville, Pittman is 14-7 ATS overall and 11-3 ATS as a dog. He was a dog in 10 games last season and fueled his team to a #21 AP Poll finish.

Bettors should love Pittman again this season.

First, the team returns seven starters including quarterback KJ Jefferson and a big offensive line. Treylon Burks is gone but has been replaced by Oklahoma transfer Jadon Haselwood. Pittman also brings back both coordinators.

Second, this schedule is beautiful. Non-conference games include a deflated Cincinnati, Missouri State, and BYU. They have just three true SEC road games and one of them is Auburn off a bye. They also avoid the top-three teams from the East, instead getting Missouri and South Carolina.

I don’t think Arkansas makes it out of the SEC, but there is tons of value in the win total. I chalk up six easy wins and several coin flips, and you can find 6.5 at some places or a plus-money 7.5

Possible Bets:

  • Arkansas over 7.5 wins (+140 at FanDeul)

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

I’m uber-high on Mississippi State this season. Mike Leach now has two full seasons to have integrated the air raid and quarterback Will Rogers is back for his third year. Leach has won at least nine games in three previous seasons with third-year quarterbacks.

Moreover, you’re looking at a roster returning 17 total players, including 11 of the top 14 tacklers on defense.

Offensively, you won’t find a more exciting team in the nation led by the nation’s most exciting quarterback. Obviously, most of this is because of the air-raid, but Rogers topped 400 yards last season four times and led the two biggest comebacks in the school’s history, beating LA Tech trailing 34-14 in the fourth quarter and Auburn 28-3 in the third. All-in-all, Rogers finished 2021 third in passing yards (4,687) with a 36:9 TD-to-INT ratio and with the 15th-best PFF passing grade. The Leach-Rogers duo also finished fourth in Offensive Success Rate.

Defensively, it’s a bit of a disaster. But bringing back your defensive coordinator and that level of experience will help.

We could be looking at some positive regression, too. The Bulldogs were +95 in yards per game last season despite finishing 4-4 in the SEC, and they lost three games by three points or less.

But this is a brutal schedule. A non-conference road game at Arizona is combined with conference road games against Alabama, LSU, Kentucky, and Ole Miss. They also pick up Georgia out of the East. It’s the toughest schedule in the SEC and probably a top-five toughest schedule nationally.

However, I think the Bulldogs beat out their win total. I count five easy wins and at least four coin flips. The key will be the first two weeks. They have to beat Memphis after losing to them last season and then take down Arizona in the Arizona heat.

But the Bulldogs did lose 31-29 to Memphis on the road last season despite out-gaining the Tigers 468-to-246. I’ll be on the Bulldogs in Week one for sure.

And if they win Week 2 against an inferior team, I think Miss State cruises past 6.5.

Possible bets:

  • Mississippi State ATS vs Memphis in Week 1
  • Mississippi State over 6.5 wins (-110 at FanDuel)

LSU Tigers Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

The biggest question mark is Brian Kelly’s Tigers.

Kelly is a top-notch head coach, but he’s looking at a total rebuild with this LSU squad. The former team took for the hills when Ed Ogeron was fired and Kelly returns some of the least overall experience among Power-5 schools.

LSU brings in a top-15 recruiting class but just one five-star in LB Harold Perkins.

They might be frisky, and will likely be worth a look in underdog situations. I’d take a look at them in Week 5 hosting Tennessee, considering the improved Vols will be looking ahead to a game with Alabama and could be sleepy following the bye week.

I have the Tigers power rated pretty high thanks to coach Kelly and a somewhat talented defense boasted by a solid interior and a potentially undervalued secondary. But I count maybe three easy wins – with one being a tough spot in Week 12 against UAB – and at least six games with a one-possession spread.

Considering the entire context, especially with Kelly attempting to integrate a new scheme with an entirely new group of players, I’m looking to fade LSU’s win total. I don’t see how they get to seven wins given the lack of certain victories and coin flips.

Possible Bets:

  • LSU ATS vs Tennessee in Week 5
  • LSU under 7 wins (-115 at FanDuel)

Ole Miss Rebels Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

Lane Kiffin is a fan favorite and will be in Oxford for the foreseeable future. But this year is tougher than usual. They’re returning almost no experience from last season and lost the nation’s most explosive quarterback in Matt Corral.

Ole Miss doesn’t bring in the best recruiting class, either, ranked just 27th in the nation with zero five-star recruits. Kiffin did land former USC quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Zach Evans from TCU, two explosive playmakers that could help replace offensive production. That’s alongside another 10+ transfers.

Seven defensive starters return, which will help improve a defense that was average-to-below-average last season. The coaching staff changes as well, however, but no expected change in scheme renders that mostly moot.

This is a rather strange schedule. Look for Kiffin to soar past Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech, and Tulsa in their non-conference season and then likely beat Kentucky at home and Vanderbilt on the road. I also project a win for the Rebels at home against Auburn in Week 8.

But it gets rather rough after that:

  • Week 9: @ LSU
  • Week 10: @ TAMU
  • Week 11: Bye
  • Week 12: vs Alabama
  • Week 13: @ Arkansas
  • Week 14: Mississippi State

That stretch will decide whether the Rebels get over their win total, which is set suspiciously high at 8.

All-in-all, I’d rather just re-examine this team at the midway point.

Possible Bets:

  • None

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

All Kentucky does is surprise people. Mark Stoops has led his team to six consecutive bowl games (winning four) following six consecutive losing seasons. After the Wildcats slipped to St. Peter’s in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, people are calling Lexington a football town.

Kentucky’s offense can move the ball. They were seventh in Offensive Success Rate last season behind an outbreak year from QB Will Levis and nine 100-yard games from RB Christopher Rodriguez. They return six starters, but they do lose their top-two WRs and three starting OL.

I’d expect a step back from the defense. They lost six starters and projections have them giving up almost five more points per game than last season.

Getting back to 10 wins seems tough. I see five gimme wins but that includes a potential week-one sleeper spot against Miami OH. They also pick up road games against Tennessee and Missouri followed by a home game against Georgia. They get Louisville at home to close the regular season but I actually would project Louisville as a slight favorite on a neutral field.

The win total is under 8.5 or nothing for me.

Possible Bets:

  • Kentucky under 8.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)

Auburn Tigers Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

Auburn has the lowest win total of any SEC West team, at just five. It might be worth looking towards the over.

This is a cookie-cutter non-conference schedule. The Tigers get Mercer, San Jose State, and post-Bailey Zappe Western Kentucky all at home. They have to face down Penn State but get them at home as well.

Unfortunately, you’re also looking at road games against Georgia, Ole Miss, Miss State, and Alabama. Chalk up four losses.

The team is tough to back, as well. Zach Calzada is in the fold with TJ Finley, but what good does that do?

The key will be in the trenches. The defensive line might be a top-10 DL in college football this season. Additionally, Tank Bigsby should make the All-SEC team as the top RB, but he’ll have to be a workhorse for Auburn to present any value.

The Tigers went 6-7 ATS in 2021, but I don’t see a  schedule spot that favors them. This team is a total stay away from me.

Potential Bets:

  • None

Tennessee Volunteers Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

It’s Bryce Young and then Hendon Hooker in the SEC quarterback rankings. Nearly 3000 yards and a 31:3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2021 will do that. He surprisingly didn’t rate too highly in PFF’s rankings overall, but his overall offensive grade took a big jump last season (74.8 to 84.4). Remember that he’s rushed for over 600 yards in consecutive seasons.

Behind Hooker and 1000-yard receiver Cedric Tillman, the Vols set the all-time school record in points scored with 511. They also were right there in the top-20 in Offensive Success Rate.

They allowed about 30 points per game and that ultimately produced a 7-6 record. They did start 2-5 however and finished the season 5-0, maybe producing some momentum entering this season. They return seven defensive starters and nine of their top 12 tacklers, so hope remains.

I am bullish on Tennessee this season, and I see seven fairly easy wins on their schedule. The problem is the over 7.5 is juiced high and there are a couple of coin flips against South Carolina on the road and Florida at home.

I lean towards the over here, but would rather pass.

Possible Bets:

  • Tennessee over 7.5 wins (-160 on DraftKings)

Florida Gators Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

I don’t know what to make of Florida. Anthony Richardson should be fun. It’s nice to have Billy Napier instead of Dan Mullen. They return 13 starters including six on offense and seven on defense. They also picked up seven four-star recruits and the nation’s 17th-ranked class.

But there wasn’t much to like about this team last season, and why should we trust the Gators now?

I also am not interested in their schedule. They get Utah at home to open the season and Utah is good. They then walk into Kentucky and USF, both at home but not guaranteed wins. At Tennessee is a loss as well.

The next stretch includes:

  • Week 9: vs UGA (Neutral)
  • Week 10: @ TAMU
  • Week 11: vs SC
  • Week 12: @ Vanderbilt
  • Week 13: @ Florida State

The Vanderbilt game is a gimme, but they likely go 1-4 in the final five weeks.

If I were to guess right now, the Gators finish with five wins. Considering their win total, I am fully ready to fade this team. Especially at plus-money.

Possible Bets:

  • Florida under 7 wins (+105 at DraftKings)

South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

Why not South Carolina?

The offense returns nine starters and replaces their quarterback with former Heisman hopeful Spencer Rattler. The offensive line is experienced and the receiving corps could be elite.

Additionally, the schedule is the easiest Shane Beamer has faced yet. While they have a tough stretch of at Arkansas, vs Georgia, and at Kentucky in the first six weeks, there are plenty of games this team can grab.

I see the following games as wins:

  • Week 1 vs Georgia State
  • Week 4 vs Charlotte
  • Week 5 vs South Carolina State
  • Week 9 vs Missouri
  • Week 10 at Vanderbilt

That’s five. Sneak one more somewhere with a third-year head coach and an improved offense and the Gamecocks are live to hit over 6 wins.

Possible bets:

  • South Carolina over 6 wins (-125 at DraftKings)

Missouri Tigers Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

Mizzou will likely never be a threat in the SEC. Eliah Drinkwitz has done a nice job in Columbia, but will he ever get over the .500 hump?

14 starters return this season, and Mizzou has former NFL head coach Steve Wilks coaching up the defense. They lost three games by less than a possession last season, but that included a Bowl Game against Army.

The hope is that QB Brady Cook can connect with five-star WR Luther Burden as much as possible. Because Mizzou’s all-time leading rusher in Tyler Badie left for the NFL, and no other Tiger had more than 40 carries last season.

If you’re looking for any value in this team, check out Week 4 against Auburn. Auburn will be in a sandwich spot having faced Penn State the week before and looking ahead to LSU the next week. The Tigers will be a double-digit underdog and could prove frisky in that one spot.

Possible Bets:

  • Missouri ATS vs Auburn in Week 4

Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Odds

  • Odds To Win National Championship:
  • Odds To Win Conference:
  • Regular Season Win Total:

Vanderbilt has now lost 21 consecutive SEC games. They returned 17 starters last season and went 0-9 in SEC play.

Is there any value we can procure from Vandy this season? Is there any hope?

Seven starters are back on both sides of the ball but only the top four tacklers on the defensive side. There’s a chance this could blow up quickly.

If by some happenstance Vandy gets past Hawaii and Elon in Weeks 1 and 2 – not a guarantee – I don’t see the Commodores winning another game. The only way the Commodores eclipse 2.5 wins is by beating Wake Forest at home in Week 3 (nope) or Northern Illinois on the road in Week 4 (nope).

Otherwise, Vandy has to compete with this group of foes down the season:

  • Week 5: @ Alabama
  • Week 6: Bye
  • Week 7: vs Ole Miss
  • Week 8: @ Georgia
  • Week 9: @ Missouri
  • Week 10: Bye
  • Week 11: vs South Carolina
  • Week 12: @ Kentucky
  • Week 13: vs Florida
  • Week 14: vs Tennessee

I am all in on Vanderbilt under 2.5 wins this season, even at -140 on DraftKings.

Possible Bets:

  • Vanderbilt under 2.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)

SEC Predictions 2022

To recap my favorite pre-season bets from the SEC, let’s look at the bets I’ll be making at the bets and the ones I’m leaning towards.

Bet Now:

  • Texas A&M National Championship (+2500 at DraftKings)
  • Arkansas over 7.5 wins (+140 at FanDuel)
  • Mississippi State over 6.5 Wins (-110 at Fanduel)
  • LSU under 7 wins (-115 at FanDuel)
  • Kentucky under 8.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)
  • Florida under 7 wins (+105 at DraftKings)
  • South Carolina over 6 wins (-125 at DraftKings)
  • Vanderbilt under 2.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)

Prepare to Bet:

  • Mississippi State ATS vs Memphis in Week 1
  • Mississippi State ATS vs Texas A&M in Week 4
  • Arkansas ATS vs Alabama in Week 5
  • LSU ATS vs Tennessee in Week 5

Lean:

  • Alabama to win National Championship (+175 at DraftKings)
  • Tennessee over 7.5 wins (-160 at DraftKings)
  • Missouri ATS vs Auburn in Week 4
Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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