South Dakota State vs Providence: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/17/22)

South Dakota State vs Providence

This is the most intriguing gambling line of the first round.

South Dakota State is the shortest underdog of any 13-seed in tournament history, at just two points. Providence is feeling unbelievably disrespected.

Should the Friars be? They won the Big East regular-season title, but they had lady luck on their side all year.

So, do we back the Jackrabbits’ explosive offense? Or is Providence too gritty to let this first-round game slip by?

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

This Jackrabbits offense is a firecracker.

The ‘Rabbits make every shot. They shoot 44.2% from 3, which is – by far – the highest mark in the nation. As a result, SDKS finished the season first nationally in effective field goal percentage (59.7%) and half-court points per possession.

Douglas Wilson and Luke Appel are two big-time offensive big men, and both had an ORtg over 115 this season. But most importantly, the two allowed the rest of the Jackrabbits to spread the floor and shoot to their heart’s content.

The Jackrabbits also took care of the ball and got to the line at a high rate. It’s hard to stop this offense.

I’m very excited to watch Baylor Scheierman take on this Providence backcourt. He shot 47% from 3 while being nationally ranked in assist rate. He averaged 16 points, eight rebounds, and five assists per game this season with a 126 ORtg. He’s as dangerous of a player as we have in college hoops.

The defense is a problem. But when you score 87 points per game, who cares?

Providence Friars Odds

So, everyone wants to fade Providence.

The Friars won 13 games by five points or less. They led the nation in KenPom’s luck metric and overperformed their shot selection, on both ends of the floor, more than any team in the nation, per ShotQuality.

All the negative regression we expected from Providence hit at once in the Creighton game. The Bluejays went on a 31-2 run between the first and second halves, beating the Friars by 27 points in an incredible upset.

But is Providence just a gritty, tough team?

Maybe. The Friars have all the shot-makers needed to win close games. Jared Bynum is a great play-maker, who finished top-30 nationally in assist rate. Al Durham has the clutch gene like you read about. Nate Watson is a very savvy and effective paint player.

Defensively, the Friars were good at contesting shots. However, they don’t pressure the ball, and I think they benefitted from some unlucky shooting from opponents.

South Dakota State vs Providence Prediction and Pick

It feels like the whole world is coming in on South Dakota State as the trendy upset pick. That worries me greatly.

However, I’m not going to go against my handicap. The Friars have to be faded, as they’re just overvalued.

And this is the perfect team to take down Providence. The Friars allowed the fourth-highest open 3s in Big East play this season, which is a death sentence against South Dakota State.

I’ll take the Jackrabbits to pull off the upset.