South Florida Vs. Tulsa Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/18/22)

In a battle of two bottom dwelling American Athletic Conference foes, both Tulsa and South Florida will battle it out to end on a high note as they look forward to ending their disappointing seasons. Even with poor records to show for, this shapes out to be an exciting matchup for our Friday night viewing pleasure with two exciting offenses on deck.

South Florida Vs. Tulsa Odds

Tulsa comes into this one as a double digit favorite, currently hovering around -13 as of writing. They have statistical advantages in nearly every category when on offense, expected to put up points in nearly every possession when they have the ball.

As for the total, that number sits at around 59. As previously mentioned, Tulsa should have no issue scoring on South Florida’s horrific defense. On the flip side, South Florida actually has a potent offense themselves, one that is capable of keeping pace with Tulsa’s scoring output.

South Florida Vs. Tulsa Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Wait for a live South Florida +14

I have to pass on the total as the number skyrocketed from the open, instead focusing my attention towards the number. While I show some value on the current number of +13, I will be patient and wait for the key number of +14 to appear via pregame or live. 

There will be no shortage of opportunities for that number to appear as Tulsa should be able to sustain drives early and often, making this a prime live trading game.

South Florida was expected to make some sort of leap in production, returning a vast majority of both sides of the ball. Stumbling to a lowly 1-9 record, the train fell off the tracks early and never got back on track to complete a full game on both ends. 

While the record indicates that this is one of the worst teams in the nation, USF actually is better than they appear. Especially on offense. With a plethora of weapons in the backfield and outside, they have the personnel to keep pace with Tulsa’s scoring pace.

South Florida Vs. Tulsa Key Matchups

Can USF’s defense slow down Tulsa’s offense with Havoc? Will Brian Battie be able to exploit Tulsa’s putrid rush defense?

USF defense vs Tulsa’s ball security

While USF is more than capable of putting up points, it’s the defense that has kept them out of games en-route to their 1-9 record. Simply put, this unit is bad. Very bad. One of the worst units in the league and Tulsa’s offense is going to do them no favors while they try to string together a complete game.

But can they do enough to just slow Tulsa down and give their offense enough chances to keep it close?

While Tulsa has massive advantages in Success Rate and Finishing Drives, it’s worth noting that they actually are near even in a key metric that can flip the script in USF’s favor. Havoc.

Should USF be able to capitalize on Tulsa’s blunders, they can flip field position in their favor as the offense will need as many opportunities as they can get to stay within the number.

Brian Battie vs Tulsa’s rush defense

One of the very few bright spots for USF’s season was the success of stud running back Brian Battie. He has been a bell cow for the USF offense, rushing for 138 attempts with 873 yards and six touchdowns. No other running back has more than 60 attempts so far into the season.

They will look to lean on his production once again as Tulsa has one of the worst rush defenses in the league, sitting at 121st in Rushing Yards Allowed and 81st in YPP. Couple that with their lack of generating Havoc and I see no reason why Battie can’t sustain success down field.

Verdict

While I believe South Florida is more than capable of keeping it close, even with a putrid defense, I want to secure my position as much as possible and that means waiting for the key number of +14 to appear. 

With potential for the USF defense to generate Havoc and ability to flip the field in their favor, the offense should have no issue scoring behind the running ability of Battie and a strong Finishing Drive rate past the 40.