South Florida vs. UTSA kicks off this Friday (11/17/23) at 9:00pm EST in San Antonio Texas as a home game for the Roadrunners. Get South Florida vs. UTSA predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the under 67.5 as points should come at a slower pace than anticipated.
South Florida Vs. UTSA Prediction
Time is starting to run out on UTSA’s chances of making it to the American Athletic Conference Championship, yet they still have a path should they continue to win out and SMU stumbles. In order to win out, they must first host the South Florida Bulls in what should be a rout as the spread implies. While the current spread is about right per reputable power ratings, the total seems a tad too high for how this matchup may unfold.
While both defenses are not exactly world beaters, each unit does have key advantages over each other’s offense that may be enough to slow them down and cash the under. It’s especially vital for South Florida to slow down UTSA as the sizable underdog as the current number suggests UTSA should put up an abundance of points. They are capable of doing just that, especially when they are in the mid field.
Stopping mid field progression is a big factor towards cashing an under, limiting the amount of scoring opportunities while continuously draining the clock. South Florida’s defense does not have many good things going for them, but they do excel at Def Success Rate, ranking 56th in that department. A brunt of that success comes from defending the pass, ranking 47th in Def Pass Success Rate. That high level of play will be key to slowing down UTSA as they rank 45th in Pass Success Rate with a below average Explosiveness.
Better yet in South Florida’s favor, they can afford to send their second level into coverage as UTSA’s ground game is near dead last in Success Rate. Ranking 112th in Rush Success Rate, UTSA’s backfield mightily struggles at cutting the distance in half on early downs as well as moving the sticks on third down. With South Florida slowing down the pass, that puts added pressure on their ground game to succeed which can drastically halt the Roadrunners progression.
On the other end, downfield progression will be tough to come by for the Bulls offense as they mightily struggle on that side of the ball. When they are not connecting on the big play, the Bulls offense is prone to stalling out as they rank 103rd in Off Success Rate, 97th in Points per Opportunity, and 76th in Havoc Allowed. Like the Bulls defense in the mid field, the Roadrunners are also in a position to limit downfield progression as they clock in at 49th in Def Success Rate.
South Florida Vs. UTSA Prediction: Under 67.5
South Florida Vs. UTSA Best Odds
As for UTSA’s chances of keeping their conference championship hopes alive, oddsmakers lean heavily towards their favor by opening the Roadrunners as a -14 favorite. Bettors believe that was a tad too low, backing UTSA up to as high as -16 in some shops. Even with the Bulls defense poised to slow them down, South Florida will still have a hard time matching their scoring pace.
Speaking of scoring pace, oddsmakers believe points will come at an incredibly fast pace by opening the number at 67.5. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the number, keeping this at the current number as of writing. Even though the total is incredibly high, expect more defensive success than the number implies with key advantage for both defensive units.
South Florida Vs. UTSA Key Matchups
Can UTSA’s defense continue to force Byrum Brown to make turnover worthy plays?
Byrum Brown Vs. UTSA Havoc
Should South Florida want to match the Roadrunners scoring pace then they will need to find some sort of success through the air. That has been an area of the offense that has eluded them, ranking 93rd in Pass Success Rate and 94th in both Pass PPA and Explosiveness.
A 🚀 from USF QB Byrum Brown to Khafre Brown pic.twitter.com/Y0ZI8nUSus
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 11, 2023
That doesn’t bode well against a UTSA secondary that clocks in at 68th in Def Pass Success Rate, 52nd in Def Pass PPA, and 44th in Def Pass Explosiveness. Better yet, UTSA also ranks 26th in Havoc which is a sharp contrast from South Florida’s offense who ranks 76th in Havoc Allowed. With Brown already struggling with interceptions, expect an uptick in turnover worthy throws that can potentially flip the field in favor of the under.