Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs (3-3) face the New York Knicks (3-4) this Wednesday (11/8/23). Get Spurs vs. Knicks moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchup below.
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks Prediction
The best bet for this matchup is a same game parlay (-130 DK) featuring Knicks -4.5 & Jalen Brunson over 3.5 assists.
Devin Vassell is doubtful for this contest, which dulls San Antonio’s offensive fangs. The rising star is averaging 19.4 points on an impressive 53.7 FG% and 40.7 3PT%. He’s their main pick-and-roll scorer and best deep threat, so it’s truly a crushing injury for the Spurs.
San Antonio loves to play a run-and-gun style and get out in transition; however, New York won’t grant them the pleasure. The sluggish Knicks rank 24th in pace and take the most field goal attempts with seven seconds or less on the shot clock. In addition, they own the largest offensive rebound percentage across the NBA, which will force the Spurs to crash the boards and subsequently reduce outlet passes into transition opportunities. Overall, this game will be won by half-court offenses and defenses, which behooves New York.
The Spurs are heavily struggling to defend the point-of-attack and subsequently allowing drivers to penetrate the paint. With Mitchell Robinson’s crushing screens to aid him, Jalen Brunson should consistently knife his way into the paint and wreak havoc as a pull-up scorer or passer. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has surrendered the second most pace adjusted open plus wide open three-point attempts per game and the third most points per game to opposing point guards. The Knicks should achieve incredible shot quality from deep here from drive-and-kicks.
Finally, New York possesses a considerable bench advantage. Immanuel Quickley, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, and Isaiah Hartenstein form a balanced group that spaces the court, scores off the dribble, defends well, and oozes quality passing. The Knicks rank 11th in bench Net Rating, but they should breach the top five soon based on their talent. On the other hand, the young Spurs are 29th in bench Net Rating because they lack self-creation firepower and defense.
Overall, look for the Knicks to win by at least five points and Brunson to hit four assists. Based on the parlay’s odds, it needs to hit about 57 percent of the time for the bet to hold a positive expected value.
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks Prediction: SGP: Knicks -4.5 & Jalen Brunson over 3.5 assists (-130 DK)
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San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks Best Odds
The New York Knicks are massive nine point favorites, which is due to the immediate talent gap and Devin Vassell’s injury. For San Antonio’s +345 moneyline to own a positive expected value, they must win this game about 23 percent of the time. Otherwise, it’s not a profitable long-term bet.
San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineup
New York Knicks Starting Lineup
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks Injuries
Devin Vassell is doubtful for the Spurs and closer to out than questionable. Sophomore Malaki Branham will take his starting spot should he miss this contest. Outside of Vassell, both teams will be at full strength in this matchup, as Keldon Johnson is probable.
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks Key Matchups
Julius Randle’s Shooting
It’s been a key matchup in all of my Knicks previews so far because of how crucial his efficiency is to New York’s offense. Randle either completely elevates the Knicks by pairing a legitimate scorer with Brunson, or he sinks the offense through missed shot after missed shot. Randle currently owns an abysmal 29.9 FG%, but he did go 9 for 21 in his last game against the Clippers. If Randle’s regression to the mean has started, then New York should cruise against San Antonio. Otherwise, the game could be closer than expected.
Quentin Grimes’ Defense
Per Basketball Index’s metrics, Grimes ranked 6th across the NBA in perimeter isolation defense and 3rd in ball screen navigation. He’s a legitimate on-ball stopper that can handle top scorers, and the Knicks will need his services here. If Grimes can slow down Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones, then San Antonio’s offense will likely sputter to a halt due to poor shot quality and scoring woes.