San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns: Predictions, Starting Lineups (10/31/23)
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The San Antonio Spurs (1-2) battle the Phoenix Suns (2-1) this Tuesday (10/31/23). Get Spurs vs. Suns moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchup below.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction
I am exploring a new market in this matchup: at least two made threes in the first three minutes of the game (until the game clock strikes 8:59).
Spurs games are averaging 11 discrete possessions in the first three minutes, while Suns games are at 9.6 so far. San Antonio and Phoenix both rank in the top ten of pace, so this contest should see around 10 to 11 possessions across the allotted time span.
San Antonio has surrendered the second most three-point attempts per game and the most wide open three-point attempts per game. Victor Wembanyama and Zach Collins’ interior defense vastly outweighs their perimeter defense, so opponents are launching from deep against them.
Due to injuries, Phoenix’s starting lineup is riddled with 3&D players that mostly lurk around the arc. Eric Gordon (29.2 3PT%) and Grayson Allen (31.3 3PT%) are both struggling to start the year, but they are recent 38 to 40 percent shooters that will see open looks here. Based on their talent and projected shot quality, the duo likely break out of their slumps against the Spurs. Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, and Jusuf Nurkic are all capable of hitting from three too, so Phoenix (14th in three-point attempt rate per Basketball Reference) has five theoretical outside shooters on the floor.
On the other end, San Antonio ranks 11th in three-point attempt rate and possesses four quality outside shooters in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, and Victor Wembanyama. They will be able to get shots off against Phoenix’s mediocre perimeter defense. Wembanyama and Collins may not want to recklessly challenge Durant’s length and Nurkic’s physicality inside too, as exploiting Nurkic’s mobility via a three is the superior option. Overall, Phoenix’s defense has surrendered the 13th most three-point attempts.
I am expecting these teams to combine for four to five three-point attempts. Based on the projected shot quality and rock-solid shooters, they can knock down two of them.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction: 2+ Combined 3PM in First 3 Minutes (+116 FD)
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns Best Odds
The Phoenix Suns are 6.5 points favorites despite Devin Booker and Bradley Beal missing the contest. San Antonio must win this game about 29% of the time for their +235 odds to have a positive expected value. Otherwise, the bet is an unprofitable play in the long run. The 225 total is the largest total of the small Tuesday slate.
San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineup
PG: Jeremy Sochan
SG: Devin Vassell
SF: Keldon Johnson
PF: Victor Wembanyama
C: Zach Collins
Phoenix Suns Starting Lineup
PG: Eric Gordon
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Josh Okogie
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Jusuf Nurkic
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns Injuries
Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Damion Lee remain out for the Suns, while the Spurs own a clean injury report. Look for Kevin Durant’s usage percentage to once again skyrocket as a result.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns Key Matchups
Phoenix Suns Pace of Play
Possessions will be crucial in this prop, as more possessions equals more three-point opportunities. Therefore, it’s essential that both offenses don’t get bogged down in the half-court and instead quickly create offense. The chart below displays FGA with 0-7 seconds left on the shot clock and FGA with 18-24 seconds left.
As you can see, San Antonio rarely utilizes the full clock and instead swiftly takes their shot. Meanwhile, Phoenix is about average for 18-24 second shots but frequently settles until the final few seconds. For this prop to have a much greater chance of success, Phoenix must abandon this trend and speed up the offense.
