The San Antonio Spurs travel to face the Oklahoma City Thunder this Tuesday (11/14/23). Get Spurs vs. Thunder moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
Although this game holds plenty of intrigue due to the Victor Wembanyama versus Chet Holmgren matchup, Oklahoma City should cruise here.
San Antonio is 29th in Defensive Rating in large part because they cannot defend the point-of-attack. Their guards are dying on ball screens and cannot stay in front of drivers, which forces the defense to collapse or surrender a layup. As a result, the Spurs rank dead last defending the three-point line based on opponent shot quality (per ShotQuality) because ball handlers are routinely kicking it out to wide open shooters.
Oklahoma City leads the league in drives and possesses a stable of effective on-ball advantage creators. They rank 4th in 3PT% because their shooters are subsequently getting wide open shots. Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, and Williams should effortlessly score while also setting up teammates against San Antonio’s porous defense.
On the other end, the Spurs derive the vast majority of their production via transition offense. Unfortunately for them, Oklahoma City’s defensive strength is limiting transition opportunities and forcing opponents to beat them in the half-court. They are holding opponents to the second lowest transition points per possession. Meanwhile, Devin Vassell is San Antonio’s primary scorer and creator, but he faces a tough assignment. Lu Dort remains one of the top perimeter defenders in the NBA who can slash his impact.
Finally, Oklahoma City’s bench is far deeper than San Antonio’s, so the Thunder can widen the gap when the starters sit. Overall, the Thunder are a bad matchup for the Spurs on both sides of the ball.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Thunder -8.5
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Best Odds
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this contest favored by a massive nine points. Given the talent gap and San Antonio’s injury concerns, it’s a reasonable line. The Spurs must win this game roughly 24 percent of the time for the +320 moneyline to be profitable in the long run. Otherwise, the bet holds a negative expected value.
San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineup
Oklahoma City Thunder Starting Lineup
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries
Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, and Jeremy Sochan are all questionable for San Antonio, while Oklahoma City owns a completely clean injury report.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Key Matchups
San Antonio Health
The Spurs have numerous key pieces questionable for this matchup. Keldon Johnson is their third best scorer and quietly averaging 4.3 assists per game. Tre Jones is San Antonio’s top playmaker, while Jeremy Sochan provides quality defense and secondary playmaking. If any of these players miss the contest or see a dip in production, then their hopes of covering diminish significantly.
Spurs Offensive Rebounds
Oklahoma City ranks 29th in opponent offensive rebound rate and 30th in opponent put-back frequency, so they are extremely vulnerable on the glass. San Antonio has been a below average rebounding squad, but Wembanyama and Collins have the chance to make an impact against Oklahoma City. If the duo can routinely secure second chance points, then San Antonio has a chance to keep their offense somewhat within striking distance.