St. Bonaventure vs. Connecticut: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/11/21)

St. Bonaventure vs. Connecticut Betting Odds

The Legends Classic will feature a whole heap of great teams playing at the Prudential Center this weekend. These are two of the best.

The Bonnies and Huskies are a combined 16-3, with both programs having recorded some high-level victories. But these two haven’t been profitable for bettors, as the teams are a combined 7-18 against the spread.

But St. Bonaventure has yet to be an underdog, and Mark Schmidt’s slow-tempo, grinder style of play is conducive to being underdogs.

So, is it worth buying the Bonnies as a neutral-site road dog? Or will Connecticut’s athleticism and talent shine through on Saturday night?

St. Bonaventure Bonnies Odds

After running through the Atlantic-10 last season, the Bonnies returned almost every major contributor and had higher expectations than almost any mid-major team.

The Bonnies haven’t lived up to those expectations, with an ugly loss to Northern Iowa being the biggest blemish on their résumé. Plus, St. Bonaventure’s against the spread record is very problematic.

However, the Bonnies sport four wins over KenPom top-75 teams. The second-half Bonnies this season have been better than any team in college basketball, with huge comeback wins against Clemson and Boise State.

The advanced metrics are shaky at best. The Bonnies aren’t forcing turnovers (270th in defensive turnover rate, 17.2%) and fall outside the top-200 in defensive 3-point percentage (33.9%).

Offensively, the Bonnies are taking care of the ball (19th in turnover rate, 14.6%) and shooting well from the free-throw line (26th at 78.7%), but they aren’t shooting well from the perimeter. The Bonnies are outside the top-150 in 3-point percentage (34.1%).

St. Bonaventure also falls outside the top-75 in adjusted offensive and defensive Shot Quality. So, if anything, the team is due for negative regression rather than positive.

Connecticut Huskies Odds

UConn may have just dropped a game to West Virginia, but the Huskies fared well without Tyrese Martin and Adama Sanogo.

Connecticut is long, athletic, stout defensively, and active offensively. UConn combines a great interior defense (12th in defensive eFG% at 42.3%, fifth in block rate at 19.7%) with a great offensive rebounding effort (sixth in offensive rebounding rate at 41.1%).

The Huskies also get to the line at a high rate (36.8% FTA/FGA) and make a high percentage of their free throws (74.2%). Combine that with attempting a lot of interior shots, and the Huskies are relatively effective offensively (29th in offensive efficiency, 111.0) despite some mediocre shooting metrics (143rd in eFG%, 50.7).

A lot of the offensive effort centers around RJ Cole. Cole is the Huskies’ second-highest usage player who is scoring over 16 points per game and dishing out over four assists per game. Most importantly, he’s the most reliable perimeter shooter, making 35% of his 5.7 3-point attempts per game. Cole gives the Huskies a desperately needed perimeter edge on offense and can carry the team through dead offensive stretches.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: St. Bonaventure +3.5

Connecticut is still missing two of its top players in Sanogo and Tyrese Martin. The Huskies struggled vs. WVU, shooting just 3-for-21 from deep, but also should’ve lost by much more considering WVU went 6-for-17 from the charity stripe.

So, UConn is a big, physical team that can crash the offensive boards and avoid blocks while generating blocks of their own defensively.

But the Huskies are running into big man Osun Osunniyi. He’s pulling down over seven rebounds per game, and he is 18th nationally in block rate (13.5%) with 3.4 per game.

I think Osunniyi will be the difference-maker in this game. But I also believe the Bonnies’ Kyle Lofton can go toe-to-toe with the Huskies’ Cole.

Finally, St. Bonaventure has yet to be an underdog, and coach Schmidt’s slow-tempo, grinder style of play is conducive to underdog situations.

Therefore, I’ll happily back the Bonnies to cover three or more on the road.