Get Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts player prop picks & odds for the (12/16/23) matchup.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks
On Saturday, the Indianapolis Colts host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game with significant playoff implications. Colts home games have averaged over 55 points per game this season, so this could be a surprisingly strong player props environment. In this article, I’ll provide some of my favorite player prop options for this AFC showdown. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best odds from the sportsbooks available in your market. Let’s get to work.
Najee Harris Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
The Steelers are a run-first offense with a 44.39% rush play rate, which ranks ninth in the NFL. That’s perfect for this matchup, as the Colts’ run defense has struggled all season, ranking bottom six in DVOA against the run. Indianapolis did get nose tackle Grover Stewart, their best run defender, back in the lineup, but I still like this spot for Najee Harris.
Typically viewed as a plodding running back, Harris has actually forced 33 missed tackles this season, which is tied for the 12th-most in the NFL per PFF. He also has 17 runs of 10+ yards, which is tied for the 15th-most. I expect him to generate a couple of chunk runs against this poor Colts run defense throughout this game, leading to him hitting the over.
Diontae Johnson Over 3.5 Receptions (-150 DraftKings)
I played this prop last week when Mitchell Trubisky became the starting quarterback, as Diontae Johnson averaged 6.3 receptions in seven games with Trubisky last season. He hit the over in six of those seven games last year. Trubisky did look Johnson’s way quite a bit last week with seven targets, but it only resulted in three catches.
With Johnson off the injury report, this should be a playable number in a game that won’t be affected by any weather concerns. Johnson will be facing Colts slot corner Kenny Moore II this week, who has allowed a 77.1% catch rate, the 16th-highest of 129 qualified cornerbacks.
Michael Pittman Jr. Under 74.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Caesars)
It’s been a tremendous season for Michael Pittman Jr. and he has a whopping 29.8% target share since Week 6. However, this will be one of the toughest matchups he’s faced all season as Steelers’ cornerback Joey Porter Jr. has allowed just a 42.5% catch rate, the second-lowest of all qualified cornerbacks.
Porter Jr. has operated as a shadow corner in several matchups this season, and I’d expect him to follow Pittman Jr. around this week. A fun wrinkle here is Porter’s dad was a linebacker and Pittman’s dad was a running back around the same time in the NFL. If anyone knows whether or not they faced off, hit me up on Twitter @wayne_sports_.
Josh Downs Anytime Touchdown (+275 DraftKings)
If you’re looking for a longer odds touchdown scorer in this game, Josh Downs has some intriguing upside. He has three red zone targets over the last three weeks, and if Porter Jr. shuts down Pittman Jr., Downs could be more heavily utilized this week.
The Steelers have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to slot receivers since Week 9, making this a strong matchup overall. Last week, JuJu Smith-Schuster finished with four catches for 90 yards against the Steelers. Downs almost had a long touchdown catch last week as you can see in the clip below – perhaps that gets converted this week.