Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Odds and Game Preview – July 1

Kahleah Copper and the Phoenix Mercury (9-9) face DeWanna Bonner and the Connecticut Sun (14-4) on July 1, 2024 at Footprint Center.

Keep reading to dig into the best bets you can place on Monday’s game, based on our computer predictions.

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Spread: Mercury (+3) to Cover

  • The model favors the Sun by 1.7 points, just 1.3 fewer than the 3-point spread set by DraftKings.
  • The Mercury have gone 11-7-0 ATS this season.
  • In games it has played as at least a 3-point underdog this year, Phoenix is 7-4 against the spread.
  • The Sun are 7-11-0 ATS this season.
  • In games it has played as at least 3-point favorites this season, Connecticut is 6-8 against the spread.

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Total: Over 157.5

  • In this game, the model projects a total (160.0 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (157.5 points).
  • This year, the Sun games have finished over 157.5 points scored, their current matchup’s total, nine (out of 18) times.
  • Phoenix’s games have gone over 157.5 total points scored in 14 of 18 total matchups this season.
  • Nine of the Sun’s 18 games with a set total have hit the over (50%).
  • Eight of the Mercury’s 18 games with a set total have hit the over (44.4%).

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Moneyline Winner: Sun (-155)

  • Prediction: Sun 81, Mercury 79
  • Connecticut has won 14 of the 15 games when it was favored on the moneyline this season (93.3%).

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Sun Leaders

  • The Sun leader in rebounds and assists is Alyssa Thomas, who pulls down 9.4 rebounds and gives out 7.6 assists per game along with scoring 12.2 points per contest.
  • Bonner leads Connecticut in scoring, averaging 16.7 per game to go with 6.2 rebounds and 1.9 assists.
  • The Sun get the most three-point shooting production out of Tyasha Harris, who knocks down 1.7 threes per game.
  • Thomas and Bonner lead Connecticut on the defensive end, with Thomas leading the team in steals, averaging 1.6 per game, and Bonner in blocks, averaging 0.6 per contest.

Sun Injuries

Name Game Status Injury
Moriah Jefferson Out Ankle

Mercury Leaders

  • Copper is the top scorer for the Mercury with 21.8 points per game. She also tacks on 4.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game to her statistics.
  • Natasha Mack puts up a stat line of 5.3 rebounds, 3.3 points and 1.3 assists per game for Phoenix to take the top rebound spot on the team. Natasha Cloud holds the top spot for assists with 7.1 per game, adding 11.2 points and 4.3 rebounds per contest.
  • Diana Taurasi is the top scorer from distance for the Mercury, hitting 2.8 threes per game.
  • Cloud (1.7 steals per game) is the steal leader for Phoenix while Mack (1.6 blocks per game) is the block leader.

Mercury Injuries

Name Game Status Injury
Brittney Griner Out Toe

All stats in this article refer to the 2024 regular season.

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