Phoenix Suns Vs. Miami Heat: Predictions, Starting Lineups (1/29/24)

It has been a nightmarish month of January for the Miami Heat, but they have an opportunity to log a confidence-building home win against the Phoenix Suns tonight. Find our Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat prediction, betting picks, and complete analysis for the matchup below!

Phoenix Suns Vs. Miami Heat Prediction

As alluded to above, the Miami Heat have really gone cold in January. In the past 30 days, the Heat have a 5-9 record, shooting just 44% from the field and 34.7% from behind the arc while averaging merely 104.1 points per game (last in the NBA).

The previous month (December) was much more promising for Miami, as it had a 48/40/80 team shooting split, which obviously aligns much more with winning. Besides its shooting woes, Miami has also had issues on the defensive end of the floor, allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the field and 38% from deep.

The addition of Terry Rozier should shake things up in a positive way for the Heat. Rozier has averaged close to 23 points, seven assists, and four rebounds this season; however, his first three outings with Miami have left much to be desired, as he has failed to reach double-digit points in every game while shooting 30% from the field.

On the other hand, the Suns have surged in the past month, climbing to sixth place in the Western Conference. There is still plenty of time left in the season for Phoenix to continue gaining ground on teams like Minnesota, Denver, Oklahoma City, and Los Angeles (Clippers.)

It is fairly astonishing that the Suns are getting 4.5 points with their three star players healthy and ready to play. Unsurprisingly, the trio of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant boasts a net rating of +13.9, which is the best net rating of any three players on the Suns (with more than 300 minutes played together this season.)

The addition of Grayson Allen (49.8% three-point shooter) to the starting lineup alongside Booker (38.9%), Beal (36%), and Durant (45.4%) is also recent and, so far, so good. This quartet of elite shooters has been extremely dangerous and will continue to be, especially against an underwhelming (recently) Miami defense. The spacing of this lineup is going to be incredible to watch.

Obviously, Jusuf Nurkic’s availability is important, but even if he is out again with that thumb injury, 4.5 points is too many to give the Suns, a team that is 12-5 in their past 17 games. We feel comfortable backing the Suns either way.

Phoenix Suns Vs. Miami Heat Prediction: Suns +4.5 (-110)

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Phoenix Suns Vs. Miami Heat Best Odds

Despite a brutally rough January, the Miami Heat are still 4.5-point favorites against the Phoenix Suns on Monday night. Miami has Moneyline odds of -175 to win, regardless of whether it covers the spread or not, while the Suns are +145 dogs to steal a road win against a stumbling Heat team. The point total for this non-conference bout holds steady at 229.5 points.

Phoenix Suns Starting Lineup

PG: Devin Booker
SG: Bradley Beal
SF: Grayson Allen
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Jusuf Nurkic

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Terry Rozier
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Haywood Highsmith
C: Bam Adebayo

Phoenix Suns Vs. Miami Heat Injuries

The Suns don’t have an extensive injury report, as Bol Bol (foot) and Damion Lee (knee) are the only two players who are certain to miss this matchup. Still, Jusuf Nurkic (thumb) missed the team’s game on Sunday and is currently listed as questionable. Keep an eye on Nurkic’s availability, as his presence is a significant upgrade over backup center Drew Eubanks.

Meanwhile, Miami only has one player, Dru Smith, who is ruled out for this game as of Sunday night; however, that could change leading up to tip-off.