Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (1/11/24)
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The Phoenix Suns (19-18) face the Los Angeles Lakers (19-19) this Thursday (1/11/24). Get Suns vs. Lakers player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.
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Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers Player Prop Picks
Which players will dominate in the Suns vs. Lakers game?
Jusuf Nurkic Under 11.5 Points (+105 DK)
Due to Anthony Davis’ defensive brilliance, the Lakers allow the seventh fewest points per game to centers, as well as the second lowest put-back frequency (via NBA.com). Nurkic will struggle to gain any traction on the offensive glass here, thus slashing a source of easy points.
Los Angeles also surrenders the second lowest opponent free throw attempt rate, while Davis averages the 11th most free throw attempts across the NBA. It’s unlikely that Nurkic racks up trips to the charity stripe against Davis’ disciplined defense, and he could sit more than usual due to foul trouble.
Finally, Nurkic has a ton of competition for shot attempts with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal on the court. Phoenix’s supplementary three-point shooters are in a superior position to exploit Los Angeles’ weak perimeter defense too, so Nurkic may fall to fifth or sixth on the offensive pecking order here.
The veteran has faced off against Anthony Davis three times this season, and he recorded 4, 14, and 3 points in those matchups. The 14-point performance was a bit flukey too, as Nurkic went 2/3 from three while securing seven free throw attempts.
Overall, Nurkic needs to theoretically hit the under at least 49 percent of the time for the bet to own a positive expected value. Based on the matchup, that’s the case to me.
Same Game Parlay (-138 FD): Devin Booker 2+ 3PM & Grayson Allen 2+ 3PM
Los Angeles’ defense gives up the fourth most open plus wide open three-point attempts per game and the fourth most above the break three-point attempts per game. In addition, challenging Anthony Davis inside the paint is not a wise game plan. Therefore, look for the Suns to rain down perimeter shots here.
Booker has hit two threes in six of his past seven games, while Allen has accomplished this feat in nine of his last ten games. Both players are three-point snipers that do not need many attempts to knock down a pair too.
The same game parlay needs to theoretically hit at least 58 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
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