Get 49ers vs Chiefs anytime touchdown picks & odds for their Super Bowl 58 matchup on Feb. 11, 2024.
Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Odds
49ers Vs. Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Picks
The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs meet again, four years after their last Super Bowl clash. While plenty has changed, both teams still feature plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but exactly will find the end zone? Let’s take a look at some 49ers vs. Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer picks for Super Bowl 58, which will be played on 2/11/24 in Las Vegas’s Allegiant Stadium.
Both of these teams have excellent pass defenses but struggle against the run, while the offenses are strong but vastly different units in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Let’s dig into these matchups and how they could affect who finds the end zone in this one.
Christian McCaffrey (-210)
McCaffrey scores just about every week, so the likelihood of a hit is probably higher than even those incredibly short odds imply. In 18 regular season and playoff games, he’s found the end zone 15 times, meaning that his hit rate is around 83%. Just based on raw probability, that would mean that this prop should be sitting at nearly -500, a number you’ll never see.
The Chiefs have a generally well-earned reputation for solid defense this year, but they can’t defend the run. They’re 27th in DVOA against the run, and 28th in EPA. Their red zone efficiency rate is also fairly middling, so don’t expect them to be the ones to finally shut down McCaffrey. Consider adding him to your same game parlay, as this bet should hit but the odds don’t provide much standalone value.
Isiah Pacheco (-125)
Much like the Chiefs, the Niners do a better job defending the pass than they do the run. On opponent dropbacks, they rank fourth by DVOA and sixth by EPA, while on rushing attempts, they rank 15th and an ugly 26th, respectively. Pacheco isn’t as prolific as McCaffrey — as evidenced by the odds — but he’s plenty explosive and is a great option for KC around the goal line.
Pacheco has really heated up down the stretch, scoring in six of his past seven games dating back to the regular season. That includes a score in each of the Chiefs’ three playoff games so far, including one against the vaunted Ravens defense. This is a pass-first Chiefs team as long as Mahomes is under center, but don’t underestimate Pacheco’s ability to exploit San Francisco’s relative defensive weaknesses.
Travis Kelce (-120)
Of course, we have to talk about Patrick Mahomes’s top target, and one of the league’s best goal line threats. Kelce isn’t in the best situation to cash on this prop with excellent coverage linebacker Fred Warner on the other side, but his situation could have been a lot worse had superstar safety Talanoa Hufanga been healthy as well.
Regardless of who’s covering him, Kelce has a knack for getting open, especially in the end zone, and even more so in the postseason. He had no issue breaking out for a huge game last week against the Ravens, even with another All-Pro linebacker, Roquan Smith, manning the middle of the field.
He’s scored three times in the past two games, as he’s really exploded after a relatively quiet regular season. Kelce’s 19 career postseason touchdowns trail only Jerry Rice’s 22 for the most of any receiver in playoff history, and two of those have come in Super Bowl wins; let’s see if he can add to the tally on Sunday.
George Kittle (+150)
The Chiefs have made a point of improving their secondary, and it’s worked. Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed have been excellent for Kansas City, forming one of the best cornerback duos in football, and CB Joshua Williams has chipped in nicely to round out the unit. With so much defensive talent on the outside, let’s look at a 49er who can attack the middle of the field.
Of course, we’re talking about the big tight end George Kittle. He’s only scored once this postseason, and six times this regular season, but he’s capable of much more. He racked up a career-best 11 scores last regular season, but was blanked in the playoffs, in large part due to quarterback instability for the Niners. This year, however, Brock Purdy is fully healthy and, at the very least, capable of delivering the ball to a player like Kittle.
The Chiefs linebackers also significantly more vulnerable than their excellent secondary. None of them have a PFF coverage grade over 67, with even star backer Nick Bolton’s score sitting down at 55.7. None of these guys can cover Kittle in the end zone, so expect him to exploit this matchup where it matters most.
Patrick Mahomes (+425)
No, passing touchdowns don’t count for this prop, but there’s still plenty of reason to believe that Mahomes could score one himself in this game. Mahomes has ripped off some key runs for the Chiefs over the years, especially in the playoffs when the risk/reward of taking off running will more likely trend towards laying it all on the line.
It’s true that Mahomes has run less and less as his career has gone on; he ran for five touchdowns in his first four postseasons, and none in the past two. That being said, this year is a complete outlier. In 19 regular season and postseason starts this year, he has yet to have one rushing touchdown, after doing so four times last year and three in each of the previous campaigns.
Don’t expect him to get completely blanked once more. With no more games this year to save himself for, this would be the time for Mahomes to put himself on the line and use his athleticism to secure six points.
Best NFL Betting Promo Codes