Super Bowl 58 Bets to Make Today: Four Best Bets For Super Bowl

We’re still a bit of time away from Super Bowl 58 kicking off, but with no other football between now and then, it’s not too early to start thinking about the best bets for the game, perhaps the biggest betting event of the year. There are more angles from which you can approach this game than any other, so it can be a bit overwhelming. Let’s take a look at just a few bets for Super Bowl 58 that you can place right now, well before the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers square off on 2/11/24 in Las Vegas.

NFL Super Bowl 58 Bets To Make Now

Both of these teams are extremely well-rounded in most ways, but they have a shared flaw; defense against the run. Of course, the two offenses aren’t exactly equally well-equipped to exploit that weakness, but both sides should find some way or another to light up the scoreboard in Vegas. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets for this fascinating contest.

Over 47 Points

Yes, this is a matchup between two of the league’s best defenses, but there’s definitely reason to believe that this number has gotten a bit too low. Let’s first talk about what needs to happen for the over to hit. We need both teams to break into the low to mid-20s, or one to get into the 30s and the other to do anything other than get completely blanked. That is not much of a tough proposition, especially considering the Chiefs’ ability to get going in a hurry when need be, and the newfound comeback ability we’ve seen from the Niners of late.

The fatal flaw of both defenses is their lack of ability to slow the run. The Chiefs looked fine last week because the Ravens simply did not try to run the football- they only handed the ball off to halfbacks a total of six times all game long. There’s simply no chance the 49ers, the team rostering the NFL’s leading rusher, does anything remotely resembling that; they’ll do everything they can to exploit this matchup.

On the other side of the football, the Chiefs are a bit less-equipped to run through the weak spots of the Niners’ defense, but Isiah Pacheco is quietly playing some strong football as well, behind a good o-line. That being said, with or without the run game establishing itself, Patrick Mahomes is completely dialed in this postseason, and when that is the case, no secondary can really stop him.

This is especially true considering Travis Kelce’s recent form; he seems to have exited his regular season hibernation, as he’s dominating January once more. Expect both teams to hold up their end of the bargain and put on a show on Super Bowl Sunday, even against very good defenses.

49ers First Half Spread -0.5 (-108)

On paper, this is the 49ers’ game. They have the deeper roster, an ability to attack the Chiefs’ weaknesses, and an offense so multifaceted that it’s impossible to fully shut down. The issue, however, is a mental one. Kyle Shanahan has gained a reputation as a “choker” after some high-profile late collapses, one of which was against this Chiefs team back in Super Bowl 54. Many of the current Niners were on that team, and none of them have forgotten that day.

It’s true that the Niners have become more of a second half team, but to be completely frank, the NFC is not of a remotely comparable caliber to the AFC. San Francisco hasn’t been making their playoff comebacks against the best of the best, and when it comes to flipping a switch in the biggest spots, nobody is better than the Chiefs. They may not always start strong, but with Patrick Mahomes at the helm, they’re never out, and Andy Reid has shown his prowess as an in-game adjustor.

The point of all of this is that if the Chiefs do win, it’s not likely going to be because they came out strong and established themselves from the first whistle. Shanahan should come in with a strong gameplan, and allow his team to jump out ahead- the big question is whether they’ll be able to hold on. Instead of answering it, take it out of the equation, and bet the first-half line.

Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown (-120)

We already noted Pacheco’s recent solid form, but let’s dig into the numbers a bit more. He’s scored in all three of the Chiefs’ postseason games so far this season, and six of his past seven contests dating back to the regular season.

Considering the Niners’ array of solid options to cover up the likes of Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice around the goal line, the Chiefs could simply opt for a different approach and run the football. It’s not their preferred method of executing the offense, but against a Niners defense that has been surprisingly average in the red zone, it should lead to some success.

Christian McCaffrey Over 130.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

This is a big number, but frankly, McCaffrey warrants it. This figure is right around what he’s averaged this season, and his usage should be higher than ever in this game, the biggest one of all. Winning the Super Bowl is what the 49ers acquired McCaffrey to do, and they’re very likely to get creative and give as many touches as possible to the league’s rushing and scrimmage yardage leader.

As we’ve discussed, the Chiefs don’t defend the run very well, ranking 27th in DVOA against the run, and 28th in EPA. Conversely, they’re a great pass defense. The Niners’ great receiving targets can still find space, but this is one of the more run-favoring teams in neutral downs- they may not even try to throw the ball all that often given the matchup. Even if they are forced to the air, McCaffrey is more than good enough as a receiver to keep contributing; expect yet another big game out of the NFL’s most dangerous offensive skill weapon.

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