Super Bowl 58 Sports Betting Odds Boosts: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Prop Bets (2/11/24)
Get San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds boosted picks & odds for their (2/11/24) Super Bowl matchup.
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Odds Boosted WagersFor Super Bowl 58
Throughout the year, sportsbooks will routinely put out odds boosted wagers to the benefit of their users. This can be in the form of a boosted straight bet or a generously boosted parlay. Not all odds boosts have value as they sometimes are still lower odds than a hand-crafted parlay, so be sure to comb through them to make sure it is a +EV wager. Below are a few odds boost that stick out and are worth a wager leading up to kickoff.
KC to Win + Pacheco TD + Kelce 40+ Rec Yards +350 (DraftKings)
For those who believe the Kansas City Chiefs will be able to pull off the win then this is most likely the game script. Isiah Pacheco is in a great position to punch one in as he takes on a vulnerable San Francisco front seven who has struggled to stop the run, ranking 15th in Def Rush DVOA, 26th in Def Rush EPA, and 24th in Def Rush Success Rate.
As for Kelce, it may seem to be a daunting task to take on a much better 49ers secondary, yet the sheer volume alone puts him in a great position to clear this mark. He still has some gas left in the tank as the best tight end in the league as we saw against an elite Baltimore secondary, still posing as a matchup nightmare for any linebacking unit.
Should the Chiefs be able to sustain drives down the field then they have as good a chance as any to capture another Super Bowl victory. They have the best defense they have ever had in the Mahomes era, fielding an elite secondary that can slow down the 49ers pass catchers. Should their front seven be able to do enough to slow down McCaffrey, then the Chiefs offense will get the opportunity to set a scoring pace too fast for San Francisco to keep up with.
Chiefs Win + Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions +275 (Caesars)
Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, expect Kelce to be heavily featured in the Chiefs game plan. Even against a secondary that ranks top-10 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate, they have still struggled to contain above average productive tight ends over the full course of the season.
PATRICK MAHOMES TO TRAVIS KELCE 😱
What a catch, what a throw 🔥🔥🔥
Chiefs lead the Ravens 7-0
— Last Take™ (@TheRealLastTake) January 28, 2024
Kelce will serve as no different, playing as one of the best gap exploiters in NFL history. Expect a slow start from their pass attack until Isiah Pacheco commands defensive attention with his running ability, freeing up Kelce and the rest of the Chiefs pass attack to start dealing out damage through the air. Especially when in the red zone, getting to play behind the coverage and plugging the gaps for Mahomes to pick apart.
Isiah Pacheco and Christian McCaffrey to Each Record Over 89.5 Rushing Yards +750 (ESPN)
As previously mentioned, both running backs will be the focal points of their offense as they take on two very weak run stopping front sevens. The 49ers metrics have already been listed while the Chiefs linebacking unit comes into the contest ranked 27th in Def Rush DVOA, 16th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 28th in Def Rush EPA.
McCaffrey’s pregame line hovers around this total so this wager is mainly about Pacheco churning out some extra yards as he does his part. His total is listed around 66.5 as of writing. Should the Chiefs be able to avoid a blow out, then the increased volume for Pacheco should be enough for him to flirt with cashing his part of the prop.
Brock Purdy to Have 2+ Passing Touchdowns and 49ers to Win +200 (FanDuel)
The 49ers advantages in this contest mainly reside on the ground but that doesn’t mean their pass attack will be completely nullified when in scoring position. It may be tough against a Kansas City secondary who ranks top-5 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate, but the 49ers elite group of pass catchers are more than enough to disrupt their coverage.
San Francisco arguably fields the most dangerous group of pass catchers in quite some time as George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey all pose as true go-to targets. Expect them to stretch out the Chiefs coverage, giving Purdy high quality passing opportunities to convert when in scoring position. Should San Francisco convert at a routine rate when in scoring position, then that will force the Chiefs to go heavier in the pass which may slow down their progression against an elite 49ers secondary.
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