Syracuse vs. Florida State kicks off this Saturday at 12:00pm EST in Tallahassee Florida as a home game for the Seminoles. Syracuse is currently a +17.5 underdog and +700 on the moneyline while the total is set at 56.5. Read on for more Syracuse vs. Florida State best bets and predictions as both defenses look to get back on track to the benefit of the under.
Syracuse Vs. Florida State Prediction & Best Bet
Sometimes when a quarterback is one and the offense is firing on all cylinders then there’s literally nothing you can do as a defense to stop it. That is exactly what Syracuse faced last week when Drake Maye decided to remind the nation that he is a top-5 pick in next year’s draft. Throwing for 442 yards and three touchdowns, Maye looked near untouchable and every missed completion brought a shock to everyone watching.
That isn’t to say Syracuse does not field a competitive defense, they just had the unfortunate favor of defending a red-hot Tar Heel unit. In fact, the Syracuse defense was more than equipped to limit Maye’s progression as they rank 45th in Def Pass Success Rate, 20th in Def Pass PPA, 36th in Def Pass Explosiveness, and 14th in Havoc.
Syracuse now has to face an arguably tougher offensive test in Florida State as Jordan Travis and company are firing on all cylinders. The previously mentioned Syracuse pass defense metrics show they can at least slow down Florida State as the Seminoles currently rank 21st in Pass PPA, 35th in Pass Success Rate, and 25th in Pass Explosiveness.
To better yet combat against the FSU offense, Syracuse excels at open field tackling. Limiting their explosive playmakers production to minimal gains. Couple that with the idea that their defense can sell out in coverage and FSU may struggle to constantly move the ball down the field. FSU currently ranks 107th in Rush Success Rate, making them one dimensional in efforts to cut the distance to gain in half.
On the other end, the Syracuse offense is about as average as it gets. They are slightly above average in Success Rate and Points per Opportunity, heavily relying on the run to generate any sort of production. This burns precious time off the clock to the benefit of the under as well as limit the damage against Florida State’s weak defense. Factoring their inability to protect the ball and drives down the field may come to a roaring halt should they continue to struggle with Havoc Allowed.
Syracuse Vs. Florida State Prediction & Best Bet: Under 56.5
Syracuse Vs. Florida State Betting Odds
It hasn’t exactly been pretty for the Seminoles as of late, keeping games far closer than they should be against inferior competition. Even with that said, oddsmakers still have this as a Florida State blowout by opening the Seminoles as a -19.5 favorite. Bettors believe that opened a tad too high, backing the Orange down to as low as +17.5 as of writing. Should their defense slow down the FSU offense then they will be in a good position to cover the three-score spread.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a blistering quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 58.5. Like the spread, bettors believe oddsmakers opened that a tad too high and have bet the under down to 56.5 as of writing. Expect defense to take center stage as the Cuse can drop more back in coverage against the FSU pass attack while Florida State can send pressure in an effort to limit the ground game.
Syracuse Vs. Florida State Key Matchups
How will the Seminoles fair against Garrett Shrader’s dual threat ability?
Garrett Shrader Vs. Florida State Edge Pressure
Not only does Florida State have to focus on the rushing production of the Syracuse backfield, but they also need to spy Garrett Shrader as he is an effective runner. So far this season Shrader has rushed for 368 yards and six rushing touchdowns.
Garrett Shrader with the fake of the century 😮
If the Syracuse QB didn’t slide, it would’ve been his 5th rushing TD of the game.
By the way, the Orange are now 3-0. pic.twitter.com/NRJZsCWtbR
— Mat Mlodzinski (@MatMlodzinski) September 17, 2023
Generating pressure off the edge will be vital in order for Florida State to slow down Shrader, forcing him to run up the middle in a collapsing pocket against the Seminoles linebacking unit. This limits the running area as bodies surround Shrader, making it easier for Florida State to clean up on their poor open field tackling by crashing down the gaps.