T.Y. Hilton Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

The Colts offense comes into 2019 with a lot of weapons, which can be a cause for concern on a week to week basis. T.Y. Hilton has a steady floor in PPR leagues as a WR2, but non-PPR can get a little dicey. He was a top 15 receiver last season, and there was a gap between him and that next tier down. Hilton will be turning 30 this season and he was very banged up down the stretch playing through some pretty big injuries. I have a slight concern with Hilton’s overall health this season, but more so the fact there are several other passing options now in the mix.

2018 Fantasy Recap

Tier FPTS 2018 Rating GP SNPS/G TGT REC TGT/G YDS 100+ YDS YDS/REC TD Yahoo PTS/G
1 163 93 14 54.5 120 76 8.6 1,270 5 16.7 6 14.4

T.Y. Hilton played 14 games and a few of those over the last few weeks were not at 100%. Despite that he still put up a 76-1270-6 line. It was great for Hilton to have Andrew Luck back, and we saw him regain fantasy relevance because of it. He had five games over 100 yards and averaged 16.7 yards per reception. Hilton also saw 27% of the team’s air yards, and I expect that number to stay relatively similar. 2018 is certainly where his ceiling lays moving forward, but I do believe the floor is going to be lower with each passing season.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

Position Ranking ADP Auction Value Bye Week Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
WR12 2.12 $23 6 77.5 1,233.3 5.5

If the health is there, Hilton can certainly replicate the 2018 type numbers. His projections indicate as such. Now I have mentioned some concern of the offense having a lot of mouths to feed, but Hilton has always been Luck’s go-to guy. He isn’t your prototypical WR1 because of his size, but 110 targets is like where he is headed. The touchdown area is where we could always see the biggest fluctuation. Because of that size he isn’t a big touchdown guy, and there are several better red zone threats within the offense. Hilton could anywhere from 4-9 touchdowns and it would not be surprising.

Hilton will have a middle of the road strength of schedule for fantasy wideouts, but does often drop a lot of focus from the defense. Frank Reich has been excellent on the offensive front, and Hilton should benefit yet again. A 75-1200-5 touchdown line is certainly doable again, and we would be happy if that is the case.

Draft & Auction Value

Hilton is going from the very back end of the second round to the middle of the third round. He ranks as the WR12 in terms of our projections, and has a decent value as an auction buy as well. Hilton is in the mix of a lot of names with a similar range of outcomes, and the ADP often varies with it. Because of that, Hilton isn’t a necessity. You are getting him as an WR2, because I am going to stand on the line of him being that instead of gunning for a WR1 role. Of course this depends on how rosters shakeup within the first few rounds.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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