Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Preview 11/24/19: Analysis, Daily Fantasy

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The Buccaneers are heading to Atlanta to take on the Falcons this Sunday. The Buccaneers have been a pretty good passing offense this season, and that’s mainly what has won them their three games. Despite leading the league in interceptions with 18, they get 285.6 passing yards per game on average — the fourth most in the league. Their defense has also been pretty strong against the rush, allowing an average of 80.9 rush yards per game, the 2nd fewest in the league. They allow a lot of yards through the air, however, which is usually their downfall. The Falcons have pretty similar stats this year. They’re top 10 in the league for passing yards per game, and toward the bottom in passing yards allowed. However, their defense has looked very strong over the past two games. I’m expecting a win out of the Falcons this weekend based on how good they’ve looked over the past couple of weeks, but I think this matchup could go either way. Click here for more details and betting information for the Buccaneers @ Falcons matchup this Sunday.

TV Schedule

Date: Sunday, November 24th, 2019
Time: 10:00 AM PST
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium,
Coverage: FOX

Injury Report

Buccaneers: Jason Pierrre-Paul (Q), Anthony Nelson (Q), Carl Nassib (Q), M.J. Stewart (Q), William Gholston (Q), Cortelle Simpson (Q)
Falcons: John Cominsky (Q), Matt Ryan (Q), Desmond Trufant (Q), Takkarist McKinley (Q), Julio Jones (Q), Kemal Ishmael (Q), Austin Hooper (Q), Devonta Freeman (Q)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis

Tampa Bay BuccaneersDespite their 3-7 record this season, the Buccaneers have been one of the stronger offenses this season. They score an average 27.7 points per game, the 6th most in the league. They also gain an average 380.4 yards per game, 6th most in the league, 285.6 of those yards coming from the pass, which is the 4th most in the league. All of these numbers play very heavily into their favor against the Falcons. The Falcons allow an average 261.7 yards through the air every game, the 7th most in the league. This matchup is a recipe for a huge offensive day. However, Winston’s offensive line hasn’t been incredibly strong this year. They’ve allowed 36 sacks on the year. The Falcons have 11 sacks over the last 2 weeks, and if they continue this trend Winston is going to have trouble with pressure. This could heavily impact their passing game, which is the key to winning this matchup, as their rushing game has been a little underpowered. The Falcons are also tougher against the run, so the offensive line is going to be very important to keep the Buccaneers in the passing competition that I’m expecting this game to be.

If the Buccaneers are 3-7 despite having one of the more powerful offenses on the year, the problem must be more of a defensive one. While their offense scores an average 27.7 points per game, their defense allows 31.3 points per game, the highest average in the league. The Buccaneers have actually been pretty strong against the run, allowing 80.6 yards per game on average, but their weakness is against the pass, where they allow 290.9 yards per game on average. This isn’t a good stat against any team, but especially the Falcons, who average 300.3 passing yards per game. I’m expecting the Buccaneers’ defense to be their downfall in this matchup, but I think it’ll be a close one that could be won by the Buccaneers if their secondary is on it on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Depth Chart

QB: Jameis Winston
RB1: Peyton Barber
RB2: Ronald Jones
WR1: Mike Evans
WR2: Chris Godwin
WR3: Breshad Perriman
TE: O.J. Howard

Atlanta Falcons Analysis

Atlanta FalconsThe Falcons have a very similar case to the Buccaneers, even down to their record. Despite having a pretty strong offense, they’re still 3-7. The Falcons get an average 300.3 yards per game, the 3rd most in the league. They also get the 10th most yards per game overall, at 374.8. They score an average 22 points per game, which is in the bottom half of the league. However, their offense has a great matchup against the Buccaneers passing defense. The Buccaneers allow an average 31.3 points and 290.9 passing yards per game. This looks great for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game. However, Matt Ryan and one of their leading receivers Julio Jones were held from practice today (Wednesday) for an ankle and a foot injury respectively. If these two are out on Sunday, it’ll be a huge hit for the Falcons offense. They didn’t leave their last game with these injuries, so it’s somewhat of a mystery how severe they are. They’ll be needed for Sunday, as their rushing game will have a really tough time against the Buccaneers. The Falcons have been using third string back Brian Hill after injuries to both Davante Freeman and Ito Smith. The Buccaneers allow the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game, so the Falcons are going to need to rely on their passing game to take the win on Sunday.

Again, much like the Buccaneers, the reason for the Falcons’ 3-7 record is mostly due to their defense. They allow an average 369.3 yards per game, 12th most in the league, the 5th highest completion percentage, and the 6th highest average yards per completion. However, their defense has looked really strong over the past two weeks. They held the Saints to 9 points and the Panthers to 3, two powerful offenses. This is partially due to their pass rush stepping it up big time over these past two weeks. In the first 9 weeks of the season, they had 7 sacks. In the last two, they’ve had 11. The Buccaneers’ offensive line has allowed 36 sacks on the season, so the Falcons have a chance to be really disruptive if they can continue their pass rush hot streak. I think they’re going to win this game due to their stronger defense, but I can see it going either way, especially if Matt Ryan is out.

Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart

QB: Matt Ryan
RB1: Devonta Freeman*
RB2: Brian Hill
WR1: Julio Jones
WR2: Calvin Ridley
WR3: Russell Gage
TE: Austin Hooper

Daily Fantasy

julio jonesI think this is going to be a very pass-heavy, big scoring matchup. Therefore, if you have any receivers you’ve been keeping on your bench that are players on either of these teams, you might want to think about throwing them in a FLEX position. Also, if Julio Jones is out, it’ll give another Falcons receiver more opportunity. This could be somebody like Russell Gage, who had 2 receptions for 32 yards on Sunday, or even a tight end like Jaeden Graham (especially because Hooper is questionable). On the Buccaneers’ side, a receiver like Breshad Perriman might be a good pickup. He doesn’t get very many touches, only getting one reception for 20 yards last game. But, most of the Buccaneers receivers are pretty highly owned on fantasy, so if you were looking for another receiver you might want to check him out. He’s had a 14.2 point game against the Seahawks, but other than that hasn’t gotten above 3.7 points this season so I’d add him as a last resort.

  
I'm a student at UC Santa Barbara studying English. I've been watching football for almost my entire life. A couple of years ago, I started to really get into statistics and became a lot more interested in the NFL and have been really excited about it ever since.

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