Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Player Props & Picks (10/26/23)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills kicks off Thursday at 8:15pm EST in Buffalo as a home game for the Bills. The Buccaneers are currently a +8.5 underdog and +350 on the moneyline while the total is set at 42.5. Expecting a massive Bills bounceback, expect player prop overs on the likes of Dalton Kincaid and Josh Allen while Rachaad White continues to struggle for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills matchup.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks
It still seems like the real Buffalo Bills have yet to get off the plane from their trip to London as they have now strung together two underwhelming performances in a row. They needed a goal-line stand to beat the New York Giants while the New England Patriots offense ran wild over the Bills defense. Tampa Bay serves as a bounce back opportunity for the once elite unit, making it interesting to see if the Bills can round back into form in primetime.
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 Receptions
Surprising some folks with their first-round pick, the Bills opted into the idea of beefing up their pass attack by selecting Utah’s tight end Dalton Kincaid. This allowed them to go back to two tight end sets, giving them an extra blocker in the ground game as well as another pass catcher for Josh Allen’s disposal.
The issue is that they have yet to use Kincaid at a consistent rate as Dawson Knox has continued to serve as one of their go-to targets. With Knox being unable to give it a go, Dalton Kincaid now gets his first real opportunity to carve out a role and show why the Bills made the right pick.
He will be in a great position to succeed right out of the gate as the Bucs defensive scheme leaves the middle of the field wide open for Kincaid to exploit. Tampa blitzes at one of the highest rates in football while generating a below average Pressure Rate, giving Allen a clean pocket and an open middle of the field to dump it off to Kincaid.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
While the Bills defense have faltered the past few weeks against lowly competition, their offense has at least bounced back against the Patriots are in a position to succeed again against the Bucs defense. Especially in scoring position, fielding a unit that ranks third overall in Net EPA.
How good was this throw by Josh Allen?#BillsMafia | #BuiltinBuffalo
pic.twitter.com/JckcPDPl5X— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) October 16, 2023
While the Bucs success has been backed by their defense, they actually struggle to contain opposing offenses in the red zone through the air. They rank a lowly 20th in Def pass EPA, a sharp contrast to their 10th ranked overall Def EPA. A big reason is because of their willingness to sell out to stop the run, leaving their back end available to get picked apart through the air.
This plays right into the Bills hands as Josh Allen serves as a troublesome quarterback for the Bucs second level to defense. He is a capable runner, keeping the Bucs linebackers on an island. This creates more gaps in coverage, giving Allen a good chance to clear this mark as he uses his rocket arm to thread the needle.
Josh Allen Over 22.5 Passing Completions
Correlating the belief that Josh Allen will have a clean pocket and more open passing lanes to throw to, he should see an uptick in competitions as he makes higher quality throws. This correlates to the Kincaid prop, as well as getting the likes of Diggs and Gabe Davis open through the middle as well.
On the rare chance the Bucs are able to generate pressure, Allen may find himself with a high-quality completion opportunity in the form of a dump off to James Cook. He may also have to throw at a heavier rate than normal as the Bucs run defense still remains impressive.
Rachaad White Under 46.5 Rushing Yards
The Bucs offensive struggles from last year have bled into this year, ranking near dead last in Rush EPA, Rush Success Rate, and Rush DVOA. Even without Leonard Fournette, the Bucs have still struggled to generate any sort of rushing production with the speedier Rachaad White.
This is in large part of their offensive line ranking dead last in Adjusted Line Yards, having to battle it out in the trenches against a Bills front line that ranks fourth on the other end. With gaps expected to be plugged and a dropped back second level waiting to crash down, expect another long day for Rachaad White and the Bucs ground game.
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