Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills kicks off this Thursday at 8:15pm EST in Buffalo as a home game for the Bills. The Buccaneers are currently a +8.5 underdog and +350 on the moneyline while the total is set at 43. Expect Josh Allen to throw for a clean sheet while he gets integrated with his new starting tight end in Dalton Kincaid, giving value for a same game parlay in this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Same Game Parlay Picks
The Buffalo Bills have yet to look like their elite selves after their trip to London, potentially leaving their defense on the plane. Once thought of as an elite unit, now ranking 12th in Def DVOA after an embarrassing defensive performance against the lowly New England Patriots. Anytime you make Mac Jones look serviceable then you know something is wrong with your defense. Luckily for the Bills, the Bucs have struggled to generate offensive consistency and should serve as a bounce back game for the Bills defense.
Leg 1: Buffalo Bills Moneyline
Will the real Buffalo Bills please stand up? While it’s a common theme to look sluggish after an international trip, the Bills have now strung together two anemic performances against lowly competition. They squeaked out a win against the New York Giants and followed that up with an embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots.
They now get a chance to bounce back against another low-quality opponent by hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This serves as a get right game for the Bills defense as they should have no issue with generating pressure from their front four while being allowed to drop the rest back in coverage. The Bucs offensive line is riddled with injuries and Baker Mayfield tends to fold under pressure.
As for the Bills offense, Josh Allen should have no issue torching the Bucs secondary as Tampa Bay blitzes at a high rate while generating little to no pressure. This leaves the middle of the field wide open for Allen to make clean throws, constantly moving the sticks and putting themselves in scoring position.
Leg 2: Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interception
With the Bucs having a high tendency to send the blitz, Allen should find himself with higher quality passing windows. Especially across the middle, an area of the field where the Bills thrive as Stefon Diggs creates separation as an elite route runner and Dalton Kincaid exploiting the gaps.
JOSH ALLEN! FIRST PASS ONE INTERCEPTION 😳 pic.twitter.com/kEyRz0MmIi
— Palace Sports (@ThePalaceSports) October 22, 2023
While blitzing may result in high pressure situations, under 0.5 interception bettors can rest at ease knowing that the Bucs blitz rate does not correlate to a strong pressure rate. They currently rank 4th in Blitz Rate and 24th in Pressure. Not only do the Bucs struggle to generate pressure, but they now have to try and find success against a Bills offensive line that ranks third in the NFL in both Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate.
Leg 3: Dalton Kincaid Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Keeping the theme of the SGP on exploiting the Bucs tendency to blitz at an unsuccessful rate, this plays right into Dalton Kincaid’s hands as he now gets an opportunity to shine as the new starting tight end. With Dawson Knox being unable to give it a go, plenty of targets open up to the others’ benefit with Kincaid also getting a major bump in snap count.
The blitz scheme also leaves the middle of the field open, giving Kincaid the opportunity to anchor down the gaps in coverage. Kincaid also leans more toward a pass catcher than a blocker, getting the opportunity to run routes in pass sets as well. His blocking will not be needed due to the inability to push the line back, giving Kincaid plenty of opportunities to clear this mark.
Leg 4: Rachaad White Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
The Bucs ground game is simply non-existent. They were dead last in Rush DVOA last year and are once again dead last in the NFL this year. Their offensive line is riddled with injuries and have struggled to create gaps for White to exploit, routinely getting stuffed and letting pressure into the backfield. Worse yet for White, the Bills defense is built off of rushing four and dropping the rest back, negating explosive plays with bodies hovering off the line to stop him in the open field.
Same Game Parlay Card For Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Moneyline
Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interception
Dalton Kincaid Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Rachaad White Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
Full SGP Odds: +475 ($10 wins $47.50)