Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (1/21/24)

Get Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions First Touchdown picks & odds for their (01/21/24) matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions First Touchdown Search Tool

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Buccaneers vs. Lions matchup?

Jameson Williams First Touchdown (+1800 BetMGM)

When breaking down this game, the first thing that sticks out is theopportunity for the Lions pass game to thrive against the Bucs blitz. Jared Goff has been phenomenal against the blitz this season, throwing for 1,270 yards, 12 touchdowns, and one interception. Better yet, because of the Green Bay Packers upsetting the Dallas Cowboys, the Detroit Lions get to host this game which is huge for Goff’s production.

Despite the blitz, Goff may see a clean pocket for a majority of the contest as the Bucs rank 26th in Pressure Rate and 16th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. That means their blitz gets clogged in the trenches, failing to puncture through and rattle opposing quarterbacks.

When in a clean pocket, expect the Lions impressive group of pass catchers to take advantage of single coverage and create separation in the open field. The Bucs secondary has struggled in coverage, coming into this contest ranked 14th in Def Pass DVOA, 16th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 22nd in Def Pass EPA. That is a sharp contrast from the Lions pass attack which ranks seventh in Pass DVOA, fifth in Pass Success Rate, and seventh in Pass EPA.

¡JAMESON WILLIAMS TD!#Lions 17-6 #Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/UP86nrW4EO

— CRAZY NFL 🏈 (@CrazyNFL_) October 15, 2023

That turns my attention towards Jameson Williams, being in a position to get secondary attention while the Bucs back end focuses on St Brown and Sam LaPorta. Williams hauled in one in their initial matchup earlier this season from a deep ball against singular coverage, being able to do the same again while also getting a wide open field should he bust one out from a screen pass.

Chris Godwin First Touchdown (+1600 FanDuel)

The Lions pass attack isn’t the only unit with a sizable advantage through the air as the Bucs pass attack gets the opportunity to attack one of the weakest secondaries in football. The Lions secondary comes into the contest ranked 25th in Def Pass EPA and Success Rate. Unlike the Lions, the Bucs pass success will not come at a consistent rate as the Lions pressure may rattle a hobbled Baker Mayfield. 

Still — in the event the Bucs offensive line holds their ground — the Lions coverage is poised to get exposed. Especially when having to face the formidable duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, two star receivers who are matchup nightmares. With Mike Evans most likely drawing more help side coverage, that gives value towards Godwin who will dominate singular coverage.

Especially since he most likely will get Kindle Vildor covering him, one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL. Among all qualified starting corners, Vildor gives up the most yards per reception in the league and now has to guard a receiver who would be a number one option in nearly every other offense. Expect a massive game from Godwin, being a lethal threat in every level of the field.

Jahmyr Gibbs First Touchdown (+650 Caesars)

While the Bucs do pose impressive run stopping metrics, Jahmyr Gibbs is still an intriguing option to be the first scorer should the Lions start with the ball. The Bucs front seven ranks eighth in Def Rush DVOA and fifth in Def Rush EPA, yet the Lions pass attack may spread the Bucs second level thin and open running lanes for Gibbs to exploit.

It’s also not as if Gibbs can’t find rush success against this stout Bucs front seven as the Lions ground game has been just as dominant. This is in large part a product of their offensive line ranking first in Adjusted Line Yards, getting a push back from the snap and opening up holes for Gibbs to exploit. As a whole, the Lions ground game ranks fourth in Rush DVOA and sixth in Rush EPA.

That doesn’t even factor in Gibbs being a dual threat running back who is an actual receiving threat on the outside. Gibbs presents multiple ways to be used as the Lions explosive back, constantly being a threat to score as they inch closer to the goal line.

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